Who Will Get Dem Nomination?

nick77

All-American
Gold Member
Sep 27, 2003
11,456
1,589
0
112
Chicago
www.richardsimmons.com
I'm going to throw this out here but I don't believe it's accurate.

Monmouth Iowa Poll (changes from August):

Buttigieg 22 (+14)
Biden 19 (-7)
Warren 18 (-2)
Sanders 13 (+5)

No chance in hell Bernie was at 8 in Iowa in August. I'll take him improving and Biden and Warren dropping no doubt. Pete is going to do well in Iowa and NH but he is polling at <1% w/ people of color everywhere.

In 2016 this poll at Bernie down 40 points in late October/November and the last poll he was down 22. It was a virtual tie.

Furthermore from demographics:
DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)

42% Male
58% Female

22% 18-34
21% 35-49
27% 50-64
30% 65+

93% White, non-Hispanic
7% Other race, Hispanic

Iowa has a lot of white folks yes. Sampled here nearly 6 out of 10 are eligible for an AARP card.and that is 99.9% of Pete's base.

I don't agree with the literal numbers but I agree with the general trending in this state.

Pete has been dumping a ton of cash onto the first two states. Bernie had the same strategy and he caught a lot of noteriety, but had miserable results with the POC vote.
 

nick77

All-American
Gold Member
Sep 27, 2003
11,456
1,589
0
112
Chicago
www.richardsimmons.com
https://clas.uiowa.edu/polisci/site...019) - Iowa Democratic Caucuses - topline.pdf

University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll:

Warren 23%
Sanders 18%
Buttigieg 16%
Biden 15%
"Don't know/Refused" 13%

All are within the MOE of each other at 4.6%. This seems to be more in line.

My dream scenario here is Biden falls just under 15% so his supporters have to break up and go elsewhere but Pete hits right at 15%.

Yang and Tulsi are at 3% each. Those supporters likely would overwhelmingly break to Bernie more than anywhere else.

Cacuses while they benefit Bernie, are dumb.
 

nick77

All-American
Gold Member
Sep 27, 2003
11,456
1,589
0
112
Chicago
www.richardsimmons.com
I'm going to throw this out here but I don't believe it's accurate.

Monmouth Iowa Poll (changes from August):

Buttigieg 22 (+14)
Biden 19 (-7)
Warren 18 (-2)
Sanders 13 (+5)

No chance in hell Bernie was at 8 in Iowa in August. I'll take him improving and Biden and Warren dropping no doubt. Pete is going to do well in Iowa and NH but he is polling at <1% w/ people of color everywhere.

In 2016 this poll at Bernie down 40 points in late October/November and the last poll he was down 22. It was a virtual tie.

Furthermore from demographics:
DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)

42% Male
58% Female

22% 18-34
21% 35-49
27% 50-64
30% 65+

93% White, non-Hispanic
7% Other race, Hispanic

Iowa has a lot of white folks yes. Sampled here nearly 6 out of 10 are eligible for an AARP card.and that is 99.9% of Pete's base.

I don't agree with the literal numbers but I agree with the general trending in this state.

Pete has been dumping a ton of cash onto the first two states. Bernie had the same strategy and he caught a lot of noteriety, but had miserable results with the POC vote.
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IA_111219/

LOL

[Note: the maximum margin of error for these results ranges from +/-8% to +/-10% for each candidate group, except Sanders at +/-14%.]

No wonder.
 

nick77

All-American
Gold Member
Sep 27, 2003
11,456
1,589
0
112
Chicago
www.richardsimmons.com
I don't think the polls mean jack. I think it could be Biden, Bernie, Warren or Buttgig who wins Iowa.
On their own they don't, you're correct. To wild, all with highly differing sampling methods. Some under poll, some will over poll. It's good to track the difference between each poll to gauge some sort of trend though.

And you're correct, any of them could win. At just under three months though the only educated guess I could make is don't be surprised to see some candidates getting equal amount of delegates. It's not winner take all like with the Republicans.
 

KU4LIFE

Hall of Fame
Gold Member
May 29, 2001
43,916
8,116
0
I look at polls as not a definitive answer but looking for general trends and momentum. Just Because candidate A or B maybe polling high or low on November 13th doesn’t mean squat come January 12th.

They are fun to look at but polling done for mid-November, a year out from the election, is like polling for college basketball in the preseason. It gives you something to track but chances are something will change the dynamics between now and when it is time to really pay attention right before you go to the voting booth.
 
  • Like
Reactions: nick77

nick77

All-American
Gold Member
Sep 27, 2003
11,456
1,589
0
112
Chicago
www.richardsimmons.com
I look at polls as not a definitive answer but looking for general trends and momentum. Just Because candidate A or B maybe polling high or low on November 13th doesn’t mean squat come January 12th.

They are fun to look at but polling done for mid-November, a year out from the election, is like polling for college basketball in the preseason. It gives you something to track but chances are something will change the dynamics between now and when it is time to really pay attention right before you go to the voting booth.
I really enjoy the trending from same poll to same poll regardless of polling methodology. If the metrics, regardless of perceived fairness or objectivity or accurate method, are all the same it will have a story tell.

Things are going to get real interesting as we are getting close to a point where dynamics will change (more people dropping out or even joining late)
 

KU4LIFE

Hall of Fame
Gold Member
May 29, 2001
43,916
8,116
0
I'm almost ready to say "someone who has not officially declared yet.
This tactic has never really worked before but this race appears to be different now that the party has a very progressive faction. The stakes appear higher and the Democratic establishment is still waiting for that white knight.
 

nick77

All-American
Gold Member
Sep 27, 2003
11,456
1,589
0
112
Chicago
www.richardsimmons.com
I'm almost ready to say "someone who has not officially declared yet.
He's thinking about joining. Deval Patrick aka Black Romney.

Both governed MA, both worked at the vulture capital firm, Bain Capital.

He was a Forclosure Mogul; he made himself and a few elites millions off of crushing the middle class and kicking them greedy bums out onto the streets. He was a top exec at Texaco, so you know he has a demonstrated ability to wreak havoc upon the environment and supply flammable water into to serfs homes.

You would love this guy.

This is the guy you and every conservative on this board wants to win. NH filing deadline is Friday so there may be an announcement soon.
 

nick77

All-American
Gold Member
Sep 27, 2003
11,456
1,589
0
112
Chicago
www.richardsimmons.com
Posted in the Bernie thread but relevant here:

Reuters/Ipsos:

Biden 19 (-3)
Sanders 19 (+4)
Warren 13 (+2)
Buttigieg 6 (=)

We're starting to see it already. The establishment support is getting fragged. Thanks Bloomberg! Thanks Patrick!

It's just one poll and it is more favorable for Bernie. Who knows, entirely possible other polls won't reflect this we will have to see.
 

jt212713

Senior
Gold Member
Nov 4, 2008
5,973
7,126
0
Of course he says that, his presidency was an extension of GWB and there is very little difference between the two administrations.

I'd try to explain it to you, but you probably still think he's a Socialist.
0%
 

cornstalk

Sophomore
Gold Member
Nov 22, 2003
1,827
383
0
Before Obama sold out


I think since JFK, and he was not a NE liberal, the dems have won with Midwestern person in Obama, and 3 southerners, Johnson, Clinton and Carter and this time there about all NE liberals, I do not know if this is a winning formula unless there party is all liberals, no moderates left.
 

nick77

All-American
Gold Member
Sep 27, 2003
11,456
1,589
0
112
Chicago
www.richardsimmons.com
https://www.politico.com/story/2010/05/obama-biggest-recipient-of-bp-cash-036783

Obama took millions from BP. He's a sell out, his administration was entirely an extension of Bush 43. He imploded the entire Democratic Party for cash. He was the single biggest gift to the Republican Party and yet none of you reading this will accept that.

It's insulting you invoke what he says about people working tirelessly to implement the change he lied about trying to do in 2008.
 

KU4LIFE

Hall of Fame
Gold Member
May 29, 2001
43,916
8,116
0
I know everyone’s preoccupied discussing the current candidates and their chances of winning the nomination, but I don’t think people are taking serious the possibility that this is going to be a brokered convention.

This is just me, but I don’t think the strongest Democratic candidate is even running. No, I’m not even talking about Michelle Obama.

Sherrod Brown.

People keep asking and he keeps denying any interest. Personally, I think he’s a no brainer on so many levels. He’s everything people wanted out of Joe Biden, but more. He’s the most popular politician in Ohio. A state the Democrats would love to win in 2020. A state the GOP owns.. minus Brown.

He’s blue-collar, working-class white union member personified, he’s won Ohio cycle after cycle while other Democrats have had trouble, he’s amiable and unassuming and he’ll be able to win many of the populism-minded voters back from Trump.

While many would like to label him a centrist, The dude literally votes like Bernie Sanders but totally gets the rep of a Joe Biden.

So why isn’t he running? Why might the most logical candidate to appease both the most liberal and moderate Democrats not want to be the democratic nominee? He’s unassuming and doesn’t have the charisma to stand out in a crowded field. All of his phenomenal qualities are matched by the fact he’s “just another guy in the room”.

So if this thing does go to a brokered convention could enough progressive and establishment donors convince the unassuming leader to lead the Democrats into battle vs Trump?

To take a Game of Thrones reference, he’s Bran the Broken.

He might be exactly the guy to lead this country, but he may just be laying back in the weeds and letting everybody else beat themselves up before The democratic party turns and looks at him and says… We need you, Sherrod.

He’s the one Democrat that could unite the whole party without getting shitted on. It’s going to take united Democratic Party to beat Donald Trump. Donald Trump has the unification of the Republican Party. Yet, would Jerrod do it? Does he see being president outweigh him being the senator of Ohio, because if he becomes president, Ohio will go back to being Republican in the Senate. It just will.
 
Last edited:

nick77

All-American
Gold Member
Sep 27, 2003
11,456
1,589
0
112
Chicago
www.richardsimmons.com
I know everyone’s preoccupied discussing the current candidates and their chances of winning the nomination, but I don’t think people are taking serious the possibility that this is going to be a brokered convention.

This is just me, but I don’t think the strongest Democratic candidate is even running. No, I’m not even talking about Michelle Obama.

Sherrod Brown.

People keep asking and he keeps denying any interest. Personally, I think he’s a no brainer on so many levels. He’s everything people wanted out of Joe Biden, but more. He’s the most popular politician in Ohio. A state the Democrats would love to win in 2020. A state the GOP owns.. minus Brown.

He’s blue-collar, working-class white union member personified, he’s won Ohio cycle after cycle while other Democrats have had trouble, he’s amiable and unassuming and he’ll be able to win many of the populism-minded voters back from Trump.

While many would like to label him a centrist, The dude literally votes like Bernie Sanders but totally gets the rep of a Joe Biden.

So why isn’t he running? Why might the most logical candidate to appease both the most liberal and moderate Democrats not want to be the democratic nominee? He’s unassuming and doesn’t have the charisma to stand out in a crowded field. All of his phenomenal qualities are matched by the fact he’s “just another guy in the room”.

So if this thing does go to a brokered convention could enough progressive and establishment donors convince the unassuming leader to lead the Democrats into battle vs Trump?

To take a Game of Thrones reference, he’s Bran the Broken.

He might be exactly the guy to lead this country, but he may just be laying back in the weeds and letting everybody else beat themselves up before The democratic party turns and looks at him and says… We need you, Sherrod.

He’s the one Democrat that could unite the whole party without getting shitted on. It’s going to take united Democratic Party to beat Donald Trump. Donald Trump has the unification of the Republican Party. Yet, would Jerrod do it? Does he see being president outweigh him being the senator of Ohio, because if he becomes president, Ohio will go back to being Republican in the Senate. It just will.
By design the DNC is trying to leverage a brokered convention. Why else do you think there was 20+ candidates in the field to begin with? They actively recruited many hyper-local candidates popular in their areas - Beto in TX, Pete in IN, Bennett and Hickenlooper in CO, Tester in MT, Inslee in WA?

All with the exception of TX, Bernie absolutely crushed it in those areas in 2016.

People were pissed off in 2016 what the DNC did. Dems elected a wet paper bag as DNC chair and as a pacifier they decided to allow the removal of outright Super Delegates but allowed them to be awarded in a brokered convention.

This is all connected and by design. It's smart and it's exactly what I would do if I was on the other side.

Each candidate is running to grab just enough delegates to stop Bernie from getting 50% + 1 delegate to be nominated on the first ballot. The DNC can then get everyone in line to award their SD to whomever they want.

As for Sherrod Brown, I would settle on him. He does agree with Bernie on virtually everything but he refuses to regulate coal. He takes a boat load of lobbyist and corporate cash. Can I really trust him on his support for Medicare For All when the healthcare industry is in the top five of his benefactors?

I've seen Warren just retreat from M4A. Kamala and the others all did too.
 

KU4LIFE

Hall of Fame
Gold Member
May 29, 2001
43,916
8,116
0
By design the DNC is trying to leverage a brokered convention. Why else do you think there was 20+ candidates in the field to begin with? They actively recruited many hyper-local candidates popular in their areas - Beto in TX, Pete in IN, Bennett and Hickenlooper in CO, Tester in MT, Inslee in WA?

All with the exception of TX, Bernie absolutely crushed it in those areas in 2016.

People were pissed off in 2016 what the DNC did. Dems elected a wet paper bag as DNC chair and as a pacifier they decided to allow the removal of outright Super Delegates but allowed them to be awarded in a brokered convention.

This is all connected and by design. It's smart and it's exactly what I would do if I was on the other side.

Each candidate is running to grab just enough delegates to stop Bernie from getting 50% + 1 delegate to be nominated on the first ballot. The DNC can then get everyone in line to award their SD to whomever they want.

As for Sherrod Brown, I would settle on him. He does agree with Bernie on virtually everything but he refuses to regulate coal. He takes a boat load of lobbyist and corporate cash. Can I really trust him on his support for Medicare For All when the healthcare industry is in the top five of his benefactors?

I've seen Warren just retreat from M4A. Kamala and the others all did too.
Did not see that on Warren. She never should have gone there. That’s Bernies thing.
 

KU4LIFE

Hall of Fame
Gold Member
May 29, 2001
43,916
8,116
0
One key problem with that comparison. It sounds like Brown would be a good candidate. Bran was the dumbest-ass thing GOT writers could come up with.
We will sadly never know that to be true. Bran that is.

Unless it went to the brokered convention and he can be persuaded I just think Brown feels he’s worth more to the Democrats as a senator than as president.
 

nick77

All-American
Gold Member
Sep 27, 2003
11,456
1,589
0
112
Chicago
www.richardsimmons.com
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/s...-poll-warren-sanders-biden-follow/4198100002/

CNN/De Moines register poll:

Pete 25 (+16)
Warren 16 (-6)
Biden 15 (-5)
Bernie 15 (+4)

Bernie was never that low in Iowa. No freaking way.

Changes reflected from last September.

The trending here is entirely accurate though. If Pete starts polling above 2% with POC then maybe he'll have a chance at the nomination.

No mention of landline to cell phone ratio, nor can I find the age brackets.

The Iowa Poll, conducted Nov. 8-13, 2019, for The Des Moines Register, CNN and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 500 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2020 Democratic caucuses and 502 registered Republicans who are not planning to participate in the Democratic caucuses.
 

KU4LIFE

Hall of Fame
Gold Member
May 29, 2001
43,916
8,116
0
Brokered convention. More and more likely to happen by the day unless someway Biden just cleans up during super Tuesday.
 

AZ j-hawk

All-American
Gold Member
Aug 8, 2004
13,289
2,189
0
Mayor Pete becoming a front runner

Difference between he and other front runners / hot candidates is that he doesn’t have much history to attack.

Next debate will be interesting.
 

nick77

All-American
Gold Member
Sep 27, 2003
11,456
1,589
0
112
Chicago
www.richardsimmons.com
Mayor Pete becoming a front runner

Difference between he and other front runners / hot candidates is that he doesn’t have much history to attack.

Next debate will be interesting.
In Iowa and NH yes. National poll after national poll, not even close. They key here is to start looking at his support from people of color.

It was only Bernie and Hillary last time around, he managed to tie Iowa and crushed NH. Got his ass handed to him in SC and all the southern states. Was polling much better than Pete w/ POC then and he didn't have anyone fragging his support.
 

KU4LIFE

Hall of Fame
Gold Member
May 29, 2001
43,916
8,116
0
Mayor Pete becoming a front runner

Difference between he and other front runners / hot candidates is that he doesn’t have much history to attack.

Next debate will be interesting.
The mayor may have momentarily gained some frontrunner status but until he shows that he can get African-American support this may be short-lived.
 

jt212713

Senior
Gold Member
Nov 4, 2008
5,973
7,126
0
Can someone explain why Warren is picking this fight? I mean, thank god she’s rushing in to defend someone worth 350M...it seems an odd choice.

 

nick77

All-American
Gold Member
Sep 27, 2003
11,456
1,589
0
112
Chicago
www.richardsimmons.com
Can someone explain why Warren is picking this fight? I mean, thank god she’s rushing in to defend someone worth 350M...it seems an odd choice.

That's pretty much in line with her career. She has questioned corporate greed in the past. This is normal behavior for her.

Are you confused that she's defending someone who has a ton of money? I guess I'm confused why you're confused lol
 

Latest posts