Who Will Get Dem Nomination?

hill6

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Sorry Tom Steyer
I love that he appears to understand and take the threat seriously, but I honestly haven't paid him much attention. I don't think he's going anywhere, but it'd be nice if his inclusion forced the conversation to move towards CC.
 

nick77

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I love that he appears to understand and take the threat seriously, but I honestly haven't paid him much attention. I don't think he's going anywhere, but it'd be nice if his inclusion forced the conversation to move towards CC.
I will say there are some ideas of his I like, (eg, CC) and I'd take him over Bloomberg any day. But we have a broken process where a billionaire can just buy their way onto debate stages and into polls.

Castro has served office and was a cabinet member in the WH and he's out of the race but we have two billionaires in still. Completely broken system we have.
 
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nick77

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Q4 fundraising, known totals so far:

1. Bernie: $34.5MM. 5MM total contributions since campaign launch.
2. Mayo Pete: $24.7MM
3. Andrew Yang: $16.5MM

No word from Warren's campaign but the goal was $20MM and it's being speculated that she's going to pull in around 30% less than the previous quarter (per a reporter taking information given in a fundraising email that was raising the alarm).

This haul will allow him to expand beyond the first primaries now, into places like CA (just opened the 11th field office).

Telling yourself 0% all day and all night won't stop the fact that he's building upon his massive ground game, which as of today, still is most effective for turning out votes. In 2020 66 million voted for Hillary, 63 million for Trump, 100 million eligible didn't even vote.
Biden coming in at third just under Pete, at $22.7MM. But he's got a Super PAC who knows what sort of dark money is available to him.
 

nick77

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Warren hasn't announced meaning she likely had a rough quarter.
I think I posted it somewhere but it's entirely possible she's in behind Yang. We knew from a recent EOY fundraising email she was well below any goals and the speculation was could be down as much as 30% from Q3.
 

nick77

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Ok, found a source from the Dec 27th email Warren's campaign sent out. She mentioned she was at $17MM for Q4. She had the rest of that days and through the end of the 31st when the ball dropped, eastern time zone.

So she's up above Yang but likely didn't surge. This how a reporter was speculating she could end up 30% below Q3.

She should end up 4th, after Biden and ahead of Yang.

The real question now is: Did she raise $3MM in 4 and a half days? It's possible but not probably with her momentum. This is a really bad look if she didn't break the 20s. Just get to $20MM even and it won't look as bad.
 

nick77

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Yang by the way is up from $10MM in Q3. That's a 65% increase which any campaign will take but for him to be relevant he needed a 100% increase minimum.

He has a tiny but fiercely loyal band of devoted followers. Like Bernie in 2016 but nowhere near as big and with lots more competition. His support mostly consists of very young video game nerds that would prefer $1,000/mo instead of education, health care, student loan forgiveness, green new deal, criminal just reform, to name a few.

Good thing IA is a caucus so his supporters go elsewhere (or just home) when he's not viable in all congressional districts.
 

Acorn1985

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I love that he appears to understand and take the threat seriously, but I honestly haven't paid him much attention. I don't think he's going anywhere, but it'd be nice if his inclusion forced the conversation to move towards CC.
Yea I don't think hes going anywhere either, like I said I had never even heard of him until I saw a campaign ad pop up when I was in Oklahoma. But I did think it was cool that he said he would declare CC a state of emergency day one if elected. I too think we are damn near to a point of state of emergency
 
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Acorn1985

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two billionaires in still. Completely broken system we have.
The unfortunate society we live in. Money talks and qualifications don't mean shit
 
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Acorn1985

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He's the other Billionaire that is just trying to buy up delegates in an attempt to force a brokered convention to block Bernie.

He will get zero delegates. The amount of money he and Bloomberg has spent so far could've fixed the Flint water system a hundred times over by now.
Yea I googled him and either the first word or first few words was billionaire. I thought to myself exactly someone that can relate to me and normal Americans. I'm sure he'll want best for us
 

nick77

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Real Cherry Picker index just now dropped NPR and a Fox News Poll from it's index and kept recent ones that weighed Bernie down a little bit.

They've been doing this for the entire year with Reuters/IPSOS and others.

If you think RCP is a clear and accurate gauge you're fooling yourself.
 
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bjabrad

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Real Cherry Picker index just now dropped NRP and a Fox News Poll from it's index and kept recent ones that weighed Bernie down a little bit.

They've been doing this for the entire year with Reuters/IPSOS and others.

If you think RCP is a clear and accurate gauge your fooling yourself.
Says he guy who sucks off cnn all day every day.
 

nick77

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Another glaring difference between Warren and Bernie (Beyond M4A): Warren voted yes for sanctions against Iran and an expanded military budget to bomb the shit out of the middle east, Bernie voted no on both.

This photo was taken when that measure was passed

 

nick77

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https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/4...third-place-alongside-warren-in-national-poll

Harris X poll

Biden 28 (-1)
Bernie 16 (+3)
Warren 11 (-2)
Bloomberg 11 (+6)
Pete 6 (-1)

LOL Bloomberg passed Pete and is tied with Warren. This is a national poll and as such, the dynamic will totally be changed after Iowa and the other 3 but beside Bloomberg sapping votes from everyone but Bernie, Bernie is in a solid 2nd still and gaining

edit: the question is, will Real Cherry Picker ignore this poll too?
 

nick77

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Bernie just came out on top #1 in the Real Cherry Picker index. This is huge because if you've been paying attention, RCP has been selectively expiring polls to straight up omitting them based upon results.

It's a great tactic. Was listening to NPR this morning and an analyst pointed to Bernie's $35MM haul but he never goes up in polls and referenced the smoke and mirrors that is the Real Cherry Picker index.

The irony is about one hour after she made that statement, CBS/YouGov for IA and NH polls were released (see the Bernie thread) and thus, the above image happened.
 

nick77

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Julian endorsed Warren which is odd to me. It's great that he's endorsing someone that he believes would be the best POTUS but he has to know that since her fllip-flop on M4A she has all but lost her shot at the nomination and thus, he apparently doesn't care about getting selected VP.
 
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KU4LIFE

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Julian endorsed Warren which is odd to me. It's great that he's endorsing someone that he believes would be the best POTUS but he has to know that since her fllip-flop on M4A she has all but lost her shot at the nomination and thus, he apparently doesn't care about getting selected VP.
Ironically, most of Julian’s biggest supporters or endorsers in the state of Texas are going to Joe Biden, not Elizabeth Warren.
 

nick77

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Biden's lost it. He's out there saying he never supported the Iraq War regardless of footage of him on the floor voting for and supporting it and now he's saying McConnell would be mildly cooperative with Democrats once Trump is gone.
 

nick77

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Monmouth NH State Poll. What a doozy.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NH_010920/

Buttigieg 20% (+10)
Biden 19%(-6)
Bernie 18%(+6)
Warren 15% (-12)

* Last poll was from September, not last week, month, or even 3 months ago
* Tiny sample size and 68% are over 50 years old. This is everyone's bread and butter on that list but - you guessed it - Bernie
* We knew back then Pete was surging a bit and that soon after Warren was in a freefall, nothing new here

Monmouth actually produced 3 different versions of this poll while still using the same bogus age weight. Regardless, wild swings from one poll to the next without heavy major events is a warning sign.

Looking at exit polls and data we have, 68% of the NH electorate in these primaries aren't AARP eligible and Dem strategists everywhere are expecting bigger turnouts with more younger people than in 2008 with Obama.

If Bernie is within the MOE here with the age weight, he's gotta be underpolled like he usually is anyway.
 

nick77

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CNN/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll:

Sanders 20 (+5)
Warren 17 (+1)
Buttigieg 16 (-9)
Biden 15 (=)

Changes are from November.

Wow. Bernie surging is no surprise. But holy shit look at Pete. Glad I shorted him on the prediction market when I did lmao
 

nick77

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I literally just got done explaining to a friend of mine that the recent (that I was aware of then) poll had Bernie, Biden, Pete all tied at 22 (or maybe 21) and yet the Iowa Caucus winner prediction market had Pete and Biden trading around the same value but Bernie was trading at nearly twice as much. I explained that statistically he was over valued due to recent polling and he was inflated due to Bernie fans that were betting with their heart and not with their brain.

Then this poll shows him gaining five, Biden stalling and Pete nose diving.

I still think he's over valued and if I hadn't bought yes shares previously when he was way low, I'd short him and buy No shares.

He jumped 8c literally after the poll dropped so I may just sell him now, make money, and short him, then get off that position later when the market normalizes again and worst case, it doesn't normalize, I break even more or less and Bernie wins Iowa.
 

viviajm

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I am beginning to think that when the eating of the young ends, Bloomburg will be left standing. I think Bernie and Warren will will end up bieng seen as one trick ponies. I also think there will be a brokered convention. IMO the economy under Trump beats free stuff from Bernie and Warren. Bloomberg is immune to Trumps insults and can throw them back at Trump. Bloomberg could be the party uniter which will be better against Trump versus a far left candidate. Although as I said before, 2024 will see the election of a far left candidate. That is unless the right moves to the center and even close to just left of center.
 

nick77

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I've said as much that 538 is more or less a paid sponsorship, I've mentioned multiple times it got the 2016 general election terribly wrong, but that doesn't make it inaccurate all the time. It's great for tracking trends for instance. Regarding the infographic, momentum is a hell of a thing.. Bernie went to a virtual tie there and ended up getting 46% of the pledged delegates despite the fact the DNC sandbagged him every step of the way.
 

nick77

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I am beginning to think that when the eating of the young ends, Bloomburg will be left standing. I think Bernie and Warren will will end up bieng seen as one trick ponies. I also think there will be a brokered convention. IMO the economy under Trump beats free stuff from Bernie and Warren. Bloomberg is immune to Trumps insults and can throw them back at Trump. Bloomberg could be the party uniter which will be better against Trump versus a far left candidate. Although as I said before, 2024 will see the election of a far left candidate. That is unless the right moves to the center and even close to just left of center.
Bloomberg is siphoning votes off of Biden and Pete, we know this from polling data looking at 2nd and third choices. I welcome him in the race because he's actively helping Bernie out.

The New York primary won't happen until we likely know who the candidate is, and Bernie will clean up in the Bronx, Queens, Brooklyn and many parts of Long Island regardless.

Warren is in danger of placing maybe even 5th in Iowa, likely 4th. If she places 5th I'm betting she drops. If she places 4th, I can see her staying in for New Hampshire but if she gets crushed there she'll drop out before Super Tuesday and her home state (she may just stay in through ST regardless but if she wants a progressive in, she'd drop and endorse Bernie at that point).

Bernie and Warren aren't running on 'free shit' but they don't need to convince you. They're appealing to the people who are scared shitless who are seeing this as investment, they see a safety net. They see help. Many of these people voted Trump because while he was lying, he said he'd help them out and they believed it at the time. Many have regrets.

It's possible there could be brokered convention, that's why Bloomberg is opening offices in the American territories that no one bothers to open offices there.. he want's to get every delegate he can to try to force a brokered convention.
 

nick77

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The average voter isn't better off when the DOW increases a ton. They're not getting raises, maybe engage in some form of profit sharing if they're in the middle class with a good job but it's not guaranteed.

They're going to vote accordingly and right now voters are looking at Bernie because for their entire lives they've done everything the right way: they went to school and took on horrendous loans, they're barely able to pay their mortgages if they even have one, one accident or illness away having their retirements wiped out and they're scared shitless.

 

jt212713

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Nick and the other socialists won’t be satisfied until everyone is broke.

Except Bernie. Bernie is the only person that earned his legitimately. The rest should hand their money over to the government.
 

viviajm

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The average voter isn't better off when the DOW increases a ton. They're not getting raises, maybe engage in some form of profit sharing if they're in the middle class with a good job but it's not guaranteed.

They're going to vote accordingly and right now voters are looking at Bernie because for their entire lives they've done everything the right way: they went to school and took on horrendous loans, they're barely able to pay their mortgages if they even have one, one accident or illness away having their retirements wiped out and they're scared shitless.

These stats mean little. As in every presidential election only 55-60% trunout. That's because which party is in the White House does not affect that 40-45% that didn't vote. The current stock market increase has helped many. Companies are stronger, more people are employed, and retirement plans are growing. The minum wage doesn't matter because unemployment is so low employers are paying more. Our country is built on opportunities and not giveaways. Bernie is spouting something that won't work. He hasn't offered a solution towards consistant job growth, less expensive education, or bettering healthcare in the USA. Eventually you socialists will get your way. But Bernie is not going to be the Pied Piper that you to this. That will be done by the younger democrats such as AOC are her gang.
 

jt212713

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These stats mean little. As in every presidential election only 55-60% trunout. That's because which party is in the White House does not affect that 40-45% that didn't vote. The current stock market increase has helped many. Companies are stronger, more people are employed, and retirement plans are growing. The minum wage doesn't matter because unemployment is so low employers are paying more. Our country is built on opportunities and not giveaways. Bernie is spouting something that won't work. He hasn't offered a solution towards consistant job growth, less expensive education, or bettering healthcare in the USA. Eventually you socialists will get your way. But Bernie is not going to be the Pied Piper that you to this. That will be done by the younger democrats such as AOC are her gang.
I’m more optimistic. I believe thinking people know that you can’t vote yourself other people’s money for very long. Frankly, America has been so great for so long that some people take it for granted as lose sight of what makes it great - freedom and opportunity.

Even this very young girl knows Bernie and Elizabeth are full of it. Enjoy:

 
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nick77

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Iraqi Parliament has voted unanimously to expel US troops and their PM agreed yet we refuse to leave.

This makes us unwelcome occupiers.

January's debate is Tuesday and if the moderators had a spine they would ask everyone on stage if they would immediately comply and withdraw all ground forces on day one of their administration.
 

bjabrad

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Iraqi Parliament has voted unanimously to expel US troops and their PM agreed yet we refuse to leave.

This makes us unwelcome occupiers.

January's debate is Tuesday and if the moderators had a spine they would ask everyone on stage if they would immediately comply and withdraw all ground forces on day one of their administration.
Non binding resolution. Aka a PR stunt.