Who Will Get Dem Nomination?

viviajm

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Before Biden I thought Warren. Right now I still think it will be Biden. Then 2 years into his term the right will win the house and start impeachment against him and unlike the phony charges against Trump, Biden wil be guilty in the eyes of all but his son. Not really, but I can hope. Trump's biggest crime is he is an outsider.
 

nick77

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Summary of today's polls. I added some commentary on some of them today in the Bernie thread while i could.
  • Morning Consult National Poll: Biden 31% (+1), Bernie 22% (nc), Warren 15% (-1), Buttigieg 8% (-1), Bloomberg 7% (+1), Yang 4%, Booker 3%, Steyer 3%, Gabbard 2%

  • Morning Consult Early States Poll: Biden 29% (+1), Bernie 24% (+3), Warren 15% (+1), Steyer 10% (+1), Buttigieg 9% (nc)

  • USA Today/Suffolk Univ. National Poll: Biden 23% (-3), Bernie 14% (+1), Warren 13% (-4), Buttigieg 8% (-2)

  • IBD/TIPP National Poll: Biden 26% (-3), Bernie 18% (+5), Warren 14% (-9), Buttigieg 9% (+2)

  • Quinnipiac National Poll: Biden 30% (+1), Warren 17% (+2), Bernie 16% (-1), Buttigieg 9% (nc)

  • NPR/PBS/Marist National poll: Biden 24%, Bernie 22%, Warren 17%, Buttigieg 13%

  • California Primary Poll (December 6-10, Change Research/KQED): Bernie 26% (+2), Warren 23% (-5), Biden 19% (nc), Buttigieg 12% (+3), Bloomberg 3% (+3), Gabbard 3% (+1), Booker 3% (+2)
 

Hawker-2001

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Hilarious.

Trump's not even the worst though. W by a mile. He murdered a million Iraqis just to start. Trump's just a childish clown that doesn't understand ethics and lacks morals.
I think you're a childish clown when you talk about W like that. You don't understand the complexities of the foreign relations situation back then. Grow up and stick to your lane.
 

nick77

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I think you're a childish clown when you talk about W like that. You don't understand the complexities of the foreign relations situation back then. Grow up and stick to your lane.
Why is it childish? He manufactured two wars on false pretenses we still have today. You call discussing his murdering 1 million Iraqis fvcking childish?

He implemented the surveillance state and the drone attacks that killed more civilians than actual targets.

Funny how you stay quiet when I bring up how Obama expanded those drone attacks, the surveillance state, and the illegal wars that W started, but when I mention that W started without mention of Obama's expansion on it you lose it.

Trump's an asshole who disrespects his office but the only blood on his hands so far is the veto of the war powers resolution that would have stopped the genocide in Yemen (something he didn't start, that was Obama).

No, Trump is far far far behind the body county on Bush. And while we're on the Bushes, his father should've been sent to The Hague for his war crimes, too.
 

viviajm

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Why is it childish? He manufactured two wars on false pretenses we still have today. You call discussing his murdering 1 million Iraqis fvcking childish?

He implemented the surveillance state and the drone attacks that killed more civilians than actual targets.

Funny how you stay quiet when I bring up how Obama expanded those drone attacks, the surveillance state, and the illegal wars that W started, but when I mention that W started without mention of Obama's expansion on it you lose it.

Trump's an asshole who disrespects his office but the only blood on his hands so far is the veto of the war powers resolution that would have stopped the genocide in Yemen (something he didn't start, that was Obama).

No, Trump is far far far behind the body county on Bush. And while we're on the Bushes, his father should've been sent to The Hague for his war crimes, too.
You sure are a hater of the right. Bush senior was a great patriot and valued citizen of this nation. His life is to be admired. As far as President's being reaponsible for a huge amount of deaths why don't you throw in JFK and LBJ?
 

Hawker-2001

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Why is it childish? He manufactured two wars on false pretenses we still have today. You call discussing his murdering 1 million Iraqis fvcking childish?

He implemented the surveillance state and the drone attacks that killed more civilians than actual targets.

Funny how you stay quiet when I bring up how Obama expanded those drone attacks, the surveillance state, and the illegal wars that W started, but when I mention that W started without mention of Obama's expansion on it you lose it.

Trump's an asshole who disrespects his office but the only blood on his hands so far is the veto of the war powers resolution that would have stopped the genocide in Yemen (something he didn't start, that was Obama).

No, Trump is far far far behind the body county on Bush. And while we're on the Bushes, his father should've been sent to The Hague for his war crimes, too.
So now Afghanistan was manufactured on false pretenses? 9/11 happened, no matter what your deluded little mind thinks. OBL caused that war, not Bush. If you really believe this crap, then you need to be fitted with a tinfoil hat and moved into a rubber room.

And I'm the first to admit Bush Fed up with the Patriot Act...but that's a far cry from 'murdering 1M Iraqis'.
 

nick77

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You sure are a hater of the right. Bush senior was a great patriot and valued citizen of this nation. His life is to be admired. As far as President's being reaponsible for a huge amount of deaths why don't you throw in JFK and LBJ?
Once again you don't see my point. For the 1,000,000th time, it's not about cheer leading one party and shitting on the other, unlike you and 100% of the conservatives here.

LBJ got us into that fvcked up war and lied to the American Public on a nightly basis. A lot of civilians died and so did our troops for absolutely nothing. Then his predecessor started a genocide by enabling Pol Pot and the Khmer Rouge in an effort to disrupt the Vietcong running the Ho Chi Minh trail through Cambodia.

I haven't discussed him much because he doesn't come up like recent presidents do. I have more criticisms of LBJ and also some of JFK and I can bring those up on request. Pretty much all POTUS going back since reconstruction, and some before that. Regardless of party.

I've shat all over Obama and Clinton and their administrations on this very board. I've also given them credit for the good things they did.

Do you finally understand now?

Not my fault that we have someone in office that is woefully unfit for it, doesn't understand basic middle school level civics.

Every single day he says or does something so crazy we're all fatigued yet any other previous POTUS it would be headlines for weeks.

I think to this day that Obama should be investigated for the illegal war that he bypassed Congress for, in Yemen that is resulting in famine and kids blown up (multiple times) by the bus load. But it's cool, Hawker-2001's 401k has increased nicely over the years.

I've hit Obama/Hillary on Libya (not Benghazi) but the power vacuum they created to which open-air slave markets exist to this day.

The difference between you and I, is that you'd defend it or criticize it only on party lines. Whatever the letter is by their name, that's how you'll decide if it was justified or not.

You can't even hit Obama on Yemen because Trump veto'd the bill to end it, and he's perpetuating it. It's the one thing Trump wouldn't dare to undo that Obama that. Because $$$$$$$ > lives.

You think it's right and left but every president since Reagan has been on a Venn diagram sharing about 85% of shade.

So now you're ignoring a mountain of evidence against Trump. I dare you to get out of your news bubble and Im going on a limb here - Fox News - and really actively try to get an objective opinion on it without any bias.

No amount of Hunter Biden or James Comey's actions/deeds/crimes/words/whatever can make Trump innocent.

Mountain.
Of.
Undeniable.
Evidence.
 

nick77

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So now Afghanistan was manufactured on false pretenses? 9/11 happened, no matter what your deluded little mind thinks. OBL caused that war, not Bush. If you really believe this crap, then you need to be fitted with a tinfoil hat and moved into a rubber room.

And I'm the first to admit Bush Fed up with the Patriot Act...but that's a far cry from 'murdering 1M Iraqis'.
9/11 was the excuse. Hence the reason some conspiracy theorists say and now since turned into a meme 'Bush did 9/11'. Of course he didn't, but that was his excuse to expand the military industrial complex.

Lots of contractors and "defense" companies made out pretty nicely.

WMDs was entirely a joke. The CIA knew it, everyone knows it today. Same reasons as above but also: oil.

The Afghanistan war has gained us 0% in security.

You don't just kill terrorists and accept the mammoth amounts of collateral damage. We never learned that from LBJ, actually Truman and Korea really (different but same in some ways).

A million Iraqi's died because Cheney wanted a god damned war and he was going to get that god damned war regardless.
 

Hawker-2001

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9/11 was the excuse. Hence the reason some conspiracy theorists say and now since turned into a meme 'Bush did 9/11'. Of course he didn't, but that was his excuse to expand the military industrial complex.

Lots of contractors and "defense" companies made out pretty nicely.

WMDs was entirely a joke. The CIA knew it, everyone knows it today. Same reasons as above but also: oil.

The Afghanistan war has gained us 0% in security.

You don't just kill terrorists and accept the mammoth amounts of collateral damage. We never learned that from LBJ, actually Truman and Korea really (different but same in some ways).

A million Iraqi's died because Cheney wanted a god damned war and he was going to get that god damned war regardless.
So, tinfoil hat and rubber room it is.
 

Hawker-2001

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That Afghanistan war only fueled, fostered, and promoted more attacks and vengeance against us as a nation. Iraq, too. And Libya. And all over Africa.

You think that was a net positive? LOL.
It was not a net positive...there IS no positive to any of it. That doesn't make it any less necessary. This is not some game of chess where you can compare moves and find out who won. This is real life; stop acting like its some game.

All the moves made back then had political and international context to them...but I wouldn't expect you to realize that given you were probably messing in your diaper at the time.
 

KU4LIFE

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Biden would be in office to ice down the waters. I don’t see him rocking the boat in his 4-years in office (don’t see him doing two-terms).

This country is so polarized. It would be shameful if we continued to push for more polarization. At least with Biden, the GOP would be able to regroup with candidates going into a 2024 election cycle with hopefully not as much tribalism permeating through out the country. Maybe that’s wishful thinking on my part and this country is just ****ed.
 

nick77

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First he would confiscate all the chargers so that he could decide who in the line around the corner would get a government issued charger that would never benefit from innovation ever again.
Wrong.

He would call out the people that have all the chargers that are shaking down the ones who can't afford a charger that barely holds any charge, but they take it anyway, then send them over seas locked up in a vault where no one else would benefit from them.
 

nick77

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Biden would be in office to ice down the waters. I don’t see him rocking the boat in his 4-years in office (don’t see him doing two-terms).

This country is so polarized. It would be shameful if we continued to push for more polarization. At least with Biden, the GOP would be able to regroup with candidates going into a 2024 election cycle with hopefully not as much tribalism permeating through out the country. Maybe that’s wishful thinking on my part and this country is just ****ed.
He'd get curb stomped by the republican house and republican senate after the midterm because millions of people wouldn't give a shit about having to hassle with getting out to vote except for the conservatives. He'd be too timid to do anything like Obama did knowing full well the Republicans will bring the maximum pain at every opportunity regardless of benevolence shown.

Hed be like LBJ thinking that if he could just get Ho Chi Minh in a room to sit down with him they'd work something out, totally clueless to reality.
 

cornstalk

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Before Biden I thought Warren. Right now I still think it will be Biden. Then 2 years into his term the right will win the house and start impeachment against him and unlike the phony charges against Trump, Biden wil be guilty in the eyes of all but his son. Not really, but I can hope. Trump's biggest crime is he is an outsider.
I think we had to do something after 9/11, otherwise we looked weak, there never going to like us no matter who is president
Biden would be in office to ice down the waters. I don’t see him rocking the boat in his 4-years in office (don’t see him doing two-terms).

This country is so polarized. It would be shameful if we continued to push for more polarization. At least with Biden, the GOP would be able to regroup with candidates going into a 2024 election cycle with hopefully not as much tribalism permeating through out the country. Maybe that’s wishful thinking on my part and this country is just ****ed.
Do you honestly think us Trumpers would vote for Never Trumpers, your in big surprise if you think that, I would vote for Bernie before I did that
 

KU4LIFE

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I think we had to do something after 9/11, otherwise we looked weak, there never going to like us no matter who is president


Do you honestly think us Trumpers would vote for Never Trumpers, your in big surprise if you think that, I would vote for Bernie before I did that
I’m not asking for you to vote for anybody. I don’t know where you got that assumption. I’m just saying I hope this country is not so polarized in four years but by reading your post doesn’t give me much hope.
 

Hawker-2001

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I’m not asking for you to vote for anybody. I don’t know where you got that assumption. I’m just saying I hope this country is not so polarized in four years but by reading your post doesn’t give me much hope.
I only see it getting worse. This impeachment process is only making it worse...follow that with Dems talking about increasing justices on SCOTUS? They're making it worse every time.
 

jayhawkart

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I’m not asking for you to vote for anybody. I don’t know where you got that assumption. I’m just saying I hope this country is not so polarized in four years but by reading your post doesn’t give me much hope.
I only see it getting worse. This impeachment process is only making it worse...follow that with Dems talking about increasing justices on SCOTUS? They're making it worse every time.
Tonight is some of the final nails in the coffin. The Durham report will cover them with dirt. I think Trump will be re-elected.
 

viviajm

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Once again you don't see my point. For the 1,000,000th time, it's not about cheer leading one party and shitting on the other, unlike you and 100% of the conservatives here.

LBJ got us into that fvcked up war and lied to the American Public on a nightly basis. A lot of civilians died and so did our troops for absolutely nothing. Then his predecessor started a genocide by enabling Pol Pot and the Khmer Rouge in an effort to disrupt the Vietcong running the Ho Chi Minh trail through Cambodia.

I haven't discussed him much because he doesn't come up like recent presidents do. I have more criticisms of LBJ and also some of JFK and I can bring those up on request. Pretty much all POTUS going back since reconstruction, and some before that. Regardless of party.

I've shat all over Obama and Clinton and their administrations on this very board. I've also given them credit for the good things they did.

Do you finally understand now?

Not my fault that we have someone in office that is woefully unfit for it, doesn't understand basic middle school level civics.

Every single day he says or does something so crazy we're all fatigued yet any other previous POTUS it would be headlines for weeks.

I think to this day that Obama should be investigated for the illegal war that he bypassed Congress for, in Yemen that is resulting in famine and kids blown up (multiple times) by the bus load. But it's cool, Hawker-2001's 401k has increased nicely over the years.

I've hit Obama/Hillary on Libya (not Benghazi) but the power vacuum they created to which open-air slave markets exist to this day.

The difference between you and I, is that you'd defend it or criticize it only on party lines. Whatever the letter is by their name, that's how you'll decide if it was justified or not.

You can't even hit Obama on Yemen because Trump veto'd the bill to end it, and he's perpetuating it. It's the one thing Trump wouldn't dare to undo that Obama that. Because $$$$$$$ > lives.

You think it's right and left but every president since Reagan has been on a Venn diagram sharing about 85% of shade.

So now you're ignoring a mountain of evidence against Trump. I dare you to get out of your news bubble and Im going on a limb here - Fox News - and really actively try to get an objective opinion on it without any bias.

No amount of Hunter Biden or James Comey's actions/deeds/crimes/words/whatever can make Trump innocent.

Mountain.
Of.
Undeniable.
Evidence.
One short comment. JFK started Vietnam versu LBJ. LBJ and RMN grew it to a grotesque size and a terrible cost. Then Congress ratified a terrible treaty.
 

bjabrad

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I only see it getting worse. This impeachment process is only making it worse...follow that with Dems talking about increasing justices on SCOTUS? They're making it worse every time.
They also want to abandon the electoral college.
 

nick77

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One short comment. JFK started Vietnam versu LBJ. LBJ and RMN grew it to a grotesque size and a terrible cost. Then Congress ratified a terrible treaty.
I agree that the genesis of it all started with JFK but he was dead when Barry Goldwater, the Donald Trump of his time, basically kept calling LBJ a pussy in the run up to the 1964 election.*

LBJ wanted to wanted to get elected as POTUS after having only attained it once the man he lost in a primary to was murdered.

So he started dropping bombs** and it escalated. Imagine that. The most liberal POTUS after FDR to this day, escalated Vietnam and he openly used the N word too.

* Hillary Clinton at this time was a proud "Goldwater Girl" trying to get him elected. She never really changed much, she was always conservative at the core

** The irony here is the man who would ultimately succeed Goldwater's seat in the Senate was shot down in the early stages of the bombing campaigns. John McCain was shot down bombing a light bulb factory with citizens inside.
 

nick77

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As the year comes to a close, so does the Q4 for fundraising. As always, the fundraising totals are always a decent barometer for the state of campaigns. The campaigns that release the numbers right away are generally in good shape or at the least have something to be excited about; the ones that wait don't have good news or at least needed time to cook up a David Copperfield act as seen before.

Friday night a fundraising email from Warren's camp showed (that after a reporter having done some maths) that they're flat and if the quarter ended that day, would close about 30% down from Q3.

Bernie's campaign set a ridiculous goal of trying to reach 5 million donations by years end after having reached 4 million just before Thanksgiving.. that's an insane goal and I don't see that happening.

He also raised more money after December's debate than any other previous debate while raising $1mm for at least the second time on debate day. I'm sure he'll be releasing his numbers immediately after the Q ends.

Pete meanwhile, caught a lot of shit for holding a fundraiser in a billionaire's wine cave and has setup a contest to get people to donate the lowest amount. Of course this is to drive down the average donor amounts. Will need a lot of 37 cent donations to counteract all of the bundlers raking in the $2800 checks.
 

nick77

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The strategy now is to keep raising enough to give your staff decent severance packages in the likely event that miracle doesn't happen, that way the staff will want to rejoin you in a run in 2024.

I saw this exact same thing start with Kamala's campaign when she started to slide.

If Warren doesn't get any delegates in the first four, especially after neighboring NH, she needs to drop and endorse Bernie if she's really about advancing progressive measures to this nation.
 

bjabrad

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Surprised Warren is having fundraising problems since Obama recently signaled his endorsement. Obama coattails are the shortest I’ve ever seen.
 

viviajm

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Right now it is Biden's to lose. He is both likeable and well known compared to the other candidates, He is also seen as someone that can keep the party from going too far left. My feeling is still that total far left control will come with the 2024 election.
 

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@hill6 and @nick77 and anybody else. I was recently down in Oklahoma for the holidays and saw a campaign ad of his come on TV. I've never heard of him nor have I've seen an ad back in Kansas on him so I thought he was an Oklahoma guy running for president. @hill6 I know you are big on CC and that's what he appears to be running on. What is everyones thought on him?
 

Acorn1985

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@hill6 and @nick77 and anybody else. I was recently down in Oklahoma for the holidays and saw a campaign ad of his come on TV. I've never heard of him nor have I've seen an ad back in Kansas on him so I thought he was an Oklahoma guy running for president. @hill6 I know you are big on CC and that's what he appears to be running on. What is everyones thought on him?
Sorry Tom Steyer
 

nick77

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Sorry Tom Steyer
He's the other Billionaire that is just trying to buy up delegates in an attempt to force a brokered convention to block Bernie.

He will get zero delegates. The amount of money he and Bloomberg has spent so far could've fixed the Flint water system a hundred times over by now.
 

nick77

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Q4 fundraising, known totals so far:

1. Bernie: $34.5MM. 5MM total contributions since campaign launch.
2. Mayo Pete: $24.7MM
3. Andrew Yang: $16.5MM

No word from Warren's campaign but the goal was $20MM and it's being speculated that she's going to pull in around 30% less than the previous quarter (per a reporter taking information given in a fundraising email that was raising the alarm).

This haul will allow him to expand beyond the first primaries now, into places like CA (just opened the 11th field office).

Telling yourself 0% all day and all night won't stop the fact that he's building upon his massive ground game, which as of today, still is most effective for turning out votes. In 2020 66 million voted for Hillary, 63 million for Trump, 100 million eligible didn't even vote.
 

nick77

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Julian Castro just dropped out. Significant only because from the little support he has, a lot of it were latinos and no one left in the race from TX.

Bernie does really well with Latinos and he has a better shot than anyone else to get those votes. But on the flip side, Biden could just as easily get his votes too.