Who Will Get Dem Nomination?

jt212713

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M4A is the kiss of death. It’s probably most of the reason Bloomberg jumped in. Warren eliminates herself and Bernie is a nut.
 
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nick77

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Are we sure a Bloomberg entry cripples Biden? Biden’s base seems to be more of the African-American and blue collar vote. Bloomberg would like cut into Mayor Pete’s base. The educated white suburban vote.
Yes.

The blue collar vote is not overwhelmingly for Biden. There are some sure, but that union support he has isn't anywhere near Bernie's and the ones that do endorse Biden are only where top brass votes and excludes the rank and file.

Bloomberg will siphon votes from Pete, Biden and Warren. He's trying to frag the NY delegate to block Bernie there but in the end this helps Bernie overall. I'm stoked he's in it.
 

nick77

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M4A is the kiss of death. It’s probably most of the reason Bloomberg jumped in. Warren eliminates herself and Bernie is a nut.
That's your opinion and you're wrong.

This has engaged so many disenfranchised and apathetic voters. Many people that cared nothing for politics are voting and voting progressive. Bernie may not win this election, M4A may never happen but at a minimum there's a wave after wave after wave.

Look at Virginia. You see what's happening in TX. 1/10 of the Chicago city council are Democratic Socialists. Look at Seattle.

Your only hope is the wealthy democratic strategists hang on to power and continue to use your talking points about healthcare and further oppress the overwhelming popular will of the people.
 

Hawker-2001

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This has engaged so many disenfranchised and apathetic voters. Many people that cared nothing for politics are voting
Isn't this how Trump got elected? Did all those voters do a complete 180 when we weren't looking?

Or are you having delusions of grandeur? Bernie does not have close to the following to beat Trump. He's in, what 3rd place to get the Dem nomination?
 

nick77

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Isn't this how Trump got elected? Did all those voters do a complete 180 when we weren't looking?

Or are you having delusions of grandeur? Bernie does not have close to the following to beat Trump. He's in, what 3rd place to get the Dem nomination?
Trump is a populist and Demagogue. He did get people engaged and wildly excited for him while Hillary was one of the worst candidates running one of the worst campaigns.

I'm not having delusions, I'm speaking the truth. Maybe it's you having delusions and not wanting to believe it. Do your homework and prove me wrong. You'll research it and give up because you'll see I'm right.

RE: Bernie. Of all the Dems, he polls head to head vs Trump better than anyone. In a recent NYT poll only Bernie was beating Trump head to head in the three firewall states polled that Trump won to win the election.

Not Biden, not Warren. Not Republican Pete. You don't know this because there is a Bernie Blackout by the publicly traded companies that report the news.

Lastly, we are 84 days away from the first contest. The dynamic of all this polling (which shows Bernie surging, Biden stagnant, Liz dropping and Pete irrelevant everywhere outside of Iowa and Indiana) entirely changes.

'Undecided' is polling the largest everywhere. The average voter doesn't post on political boards, watch debates, or even discuss politics.

When people start making up their minds, and when others drop out the dynamic entirely changes.

It is laughable to predict anyone outside of Bernie, Biden, and Warren will win it. It is also laughable to predict any one of those three can not win it.

Seriously, try being objective.
 

jt212713

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That's your opinion and you're wrong.

This has engaged so many disenfranchised and apathetic voters. Many people that cared nothing for politics are voting and voting progressive. Bernie may not win this election, M4A may never happen but at a minimum there's a wave after wave after wave.

Look at Virginia. You see what's happening in TX. 1/10 of the Chicago city council are Democratic Socialists. Look at Seattle.

Your only hope is the wealthy democratic strategists hang on to power and continue to use your talking points about healthcare and further oppress the overwhelming popular will of the people.
Terry McAuliffe made it his mission to turn the house and senate blue in VA. And he thinks M4A is a losing issue for dems. You’re literally wrong about most of what you believe.
 

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The only thing I disagree with here is that Sanders and Gabbard should be swapped with Gravel.

But this "far left" idiocy is just pure ignorance.

I have been dead serious when I've been saying the Democrats are a conservative party.
 

nick77

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Terry McAuliffe made it his mission to turn the house and senate blue in VA. And he thinks M4A is a losing issue for dems. You’re literally wrong about most of what you believe.
Terry McAuliffe is a DINO. You are so naive.

That very state elected the first transgender non-binary gender politician to it's leglislature. It elected a Democratic Socialist to it's House Delegation that knocked off the ranking senior Republican. That wasn't a fluke, Lee Carter got re-elected last week.

None of this was thanks to Terry McAuliffe LOLOLOLOL.

You think it's a binary D vs R and you can't even comprehend the several gradients, much less even know what the word gradient is I wager.

But I'm not surprised. You said Bernie and Warren both want to destroy Capitalism and you post Jennifer Rubin blogs as fact.
 

Hawker-2001

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Trump is a populist and Demagogue. He did get people engaged and wildly excited for him while Hillary was one of the worst candidates running one of the worst campaigns.

I'm not having delusions, I'm speaking the truth. Maybe it's you having delusions and not wanting to believe it. Do your homework and prove me wrong. You'll research it and give up because you'll see I'm right.

RE: Bernie. Of all the Dems, he polls head to head vs Trump better than anyone. In a recent NYT poll only Bernie was beating Trump head to head in the three firewall states polled that Trump won to win the election.

Not Biden, not Warren. Not Republican Pete. You don't know this because there is a Bernie Blackout by the publicly traded companies that report the news.

Lastly, we are 84 days away from the first contest. The dynamic of all this polling (which shows Bernie surging, Biden stagnant, Liz dropping and Pete irrelevant everywhere outside of Iowa and Indiana) entirely changes.

'Undecided' is polling the largest everywhere. The average voter doesn't post on political boards, watch debates, or even discuss politics.

When people start making up their minds, and when others drop out the dynamic entirely changes.

It is laughable to predict anyone outside of Bernie, Biden, and Warren will win it. It is also laughable to predict any one of those three can not win it.

Seriously, try being objective.
I need to be objective? How about you showing a little objectivity...you've been up Bernie's ass for years. Come up for breath.

The only thing Bernie has going for him is his name and fanatics like yourself. Way too many media sources are calling him tired and not resonating with the voters. The truth is that his best chance was against Hillary.

The best option, and really pretty close to the only option for beating Trump, is Biden...which is sad because he sounds pretty confused most of the time. I'd vote for Biden if for no other reason than a doddering old fool will do less damage than another Trump presidency. The problem with Biden is he would probably be successful; which would do too much damage to this country.
 

nick77

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I need to be objective? How about you showing a little objectivity...you've been up Bernie's ass for years. Come up for breath.

The only thing Bernie has going for him is his name and fanatics like yourself. Way too many media sources are calling him tired and not resonating with the voters. The truth is that his best chance was against Hillary.

The best option, and really pretty close to the only option for beating Trump, is Biden...which is sad because he sounds pretty confused most of the time. I'd vote for Biden if for no other reason than a doddering old fool will do less damage than another Trump presidency. The problem with Biden is he would probably be successful; which would do too much damage to this country.
ad hominem.

SERIOUSLY. You are saying I'm not objective?

I've maintained for MONTHS that the top three front runners are Biden, Bernie, Warren.

To say that anyone of them is a lock is laughable. To say that anyone of them definitely will not win is laughable.

I've posted poll after poll after poll after poll when objective commentary of microtrends and posited rhetorical questions.

There have been the memes. Yes several memes that I find funny. There have been articles highlighting the media blackout. There have been articles highlighting why I think he is the best candidate.

I've litigated time and time and time and time and time and time again that I feel Bernie's policies are the best in own opinion. But I have never declared him being the winner.

I have never attacked any user on this board for not endorsing him.

Yet I get attacked relentlessly for supporting him. You ad hominem attack me per default because you feel insulted that I disagree with you.

You don't give a shit that anyone else can loudly and proudly support their horse in the race. You don't gave a shit that other people are making declarations of 100% probability on things that no one, and I mean no one can predict.

There is a great probability that anybody but Bernie wins. And you all can rejoice and say how smart you are that you took the field of 24 other candidates, anyone of them getting the nomination over Bernie.

I have my own right to my opinions and I have always let people have theirs. I'm not throwing darts at a wall.

I have been one of the most critical posters of the Democratic Party but not for reasons that you want me to be.

I consider myself one of the most objective people on this board.
 

KU4LIFE

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Looking more and more like Bloomberg running was just another bluff. I just don’t think he would make much traction even if he did.

Looks like Biden is holding steady and polling over 30 in all the very recent info I’ve read. If he can rectify some of his cash on hand numbers I think he’s sitting in a good position going forward. I think you’ll see in the upcoming poll releases that Warren might slip slightly. Bernie will hold his usual around 20%.

A lot of Joe Biden/Kamala Harris ticket circulating if Joe gets the nomination. I know there’s been some talk of the young Floridian, Andrew Gillum, as a potential VP for him, but a Biden/Harris ticket could be a strong tandem in a general election.
 

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The only thing I disagree with here is that Sanders and Gabbard should be swapped with Gravel.

But this "far left" idiocy is just pure ignorance.

I have been dead serious when I've been saying the Democrats are a conservative party.
Interesting matrix especially regarding the authoritarian category. When I think of authoritarian I think of issues where the government uses its power to make citizens do things. Things like gun confiscation, high taxes, forcing you to lose your doctor and health insurance plan. Things like this would put Bernie and Warren at the high end of Authoritarianism rather than Trump who wants to cede more power to the local level and directly to citizens. You know, the opposite of authoritarianism.
 

Hawker-2001

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ad hominem.

SERIOUSLY. You are saying I'm not objective?

I've maintained for MONTHS that the top three front runners are Biden, Bernie, Warren.

To say that anyone of them is a lock is laughable. To say that anyone of them definitely will not win is laughable.

I've posted poll after poll after poll after poll when objective commentary of microtrends and posited rhetorical questions.

There have been the memes. Yes several memes that I find funny. There have been articles highlighting the media blackout. There have been articles highlighting why I think he is the best candidate.

I've litigated time and time and time and time and time and time again that I feel Bernie's policies are the best in own opinion. But I have never declared him being the winner.

I have never attacked any user on this board for not endorsing him.

Yet I get attacked relentlessly for supporting him. You ad hominem attack me per default because you feel insulted that I disagree with you.

You don't give a shit that anyone else can loudly and proudly support their horse in the race. You don't gave a shit that other people are making declarations of 100% probability on things that no one, and I mean no one can predict.

There is a great probability that anybody but Bernie wins. And you all can rejoice and say how smart you are that you took the field of 24 other candidates, anyone of them getting the nomination over Bernie.

I have my own right to my opinions and I have always let people have theirs. I'm not throwing darts at a wall.

I have been one of the most critical posters of the Democratic Party but not for reasons that you want me to be.

I consider myself one of the most objective people on this board.
I got halfway into your diatribe and had to stop...there were too many things to refute and I just don't have the time...you know, the job, the family, etc.

Of course you consider yourself the most objective person on this board. You're a classic narcissist. Anybody disagrees with you, you're being attacked...anybody calls you out, they're always wrong because you could never get anything wrong...could never be shown to be wrong. Heaven forbid you open your mind up enough to consider someone else's point of view.

We all have a right to our opinions just like you. And they're just as objective, just as fact-based as yours(although I'd posit yours aren't really based on more than Bernie's opinion, but I digress).
 

nick77

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I got halfway into your diatribe and had to stop...there were too many things to refute and I just don't have the time...you know, the job, the family, etc.

Of course you consider yourself the most objective person on this board. You're a classic narcissist. Anybody disagrees with you, you're being attacked...anybody calls you out, they're always wrong because you could never get anything wrong...could never be shown to be wrong. Heaven forbid you open your mind up enough to consider someone else's point of view.

We all have a right to our opinions just like you. And they're just as objective, just as fact-based as yours(although I'd posit yours aren't really based on more than Bernie's opinion, but I digress).
You're full of shit.

You have plenty of time to hold a vengeance and loathe your miserable matter of being.
 

nick77

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This is just lunacy.

Just the other day someone else blindly thought I wasn't capable of objectivity "challenged" me to find flaws with Obama and Bill Clinton. I wrote about everyone of their flaws handed you guys perfect argumentative points on a silver platter to nail anyone with him who claims to be liberal and holds them up on a pedestal.

I've had liberals on this board in the past question my commitment to blocking Trump out because I was airing my grievances and disagreements with MSNBC.

I've never attacked anyone for disagreeing with them, it's 95% of the time in self defense, see quite literally any Nipro post. I called JT a dipshit that *one time* after he failed to realize I was disagreeing with him for 5 posts and repeat attempted clarifications but he was hell bent on assuming I couldn't be objective and critical of Hillary Clinton.

You say you're a moderate and not a conservative yet you fiercely defend Trump and act like one.
 

Hawker-2001

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I've never attacked anyone for disagreeing with them, it's 95% of the time in self defense, see quite literally any Nipro post. I called JT a dipshit that *one time* after he failed to realize I was disagreeing with him for 5 posts and repeat attempted clarifications but he was hell bent on assuming I couldn't be objective and critical of Hillary Clinton.
You JUST attacked me nick, you're really going to try and claim the high ground?! You attack people all the time...this is exactly why you get mocked on here. You jump in the mud with everyone else and then claim your shit don't stink.
 

jt212713

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Terry McAulliffe worked on both Clinton campaigns. His career has done nothing to energize progressives. He was literally paid to extinguish it.
He ran the DNC. Why does Bernie run for POTUS as a Democrat?

You're right that Terry and Bill Clinton are capitalists and they (rightly) think Bernie is a nut and that Warren has ruined her candidacy with M4A as not even Democrats support it.
 
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nick77

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He ran the DNC. Why does Bernie run for POTUS as a Democrat?

You're right that Terry and Bill Clinton are capitalists and they (rightly) think Bernie is a nut and that Warren has ruined her candidacy with M4A as not even Democrats support it.
There's a civil war ongoing within the Democratic Party. You think they're all one and the same but that's not the case.

Terry, while he said he wanted to turn seats blue (what Governor doesn't say they want to do flip seats in their state?!?!) does not get all the get credit for Virginia's transformation over the years.

VA is electing some of the most progressive people to that state legislature because that's what people want. M4A. Green New Deal, living wages.

People are engaging in the political process for the first time because they have a candidate who is fighting for what they want.

Not because some centrist middle of the road Democrat who was paid to fight against many popular policies years ago said he wanted more seats to turn blue.

To answer your question: There is a two party system both sharing and enjoying a duopoly and Bernie is running as a D to get people engaged and to turn the party inside out.

It's working.
 

jt212713

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There's a civil war ongoing within the Democratic Party. You think they're all one and the same but that's not the case.

Terry, while he said he wanted to turn seats blue (what Governor doesn't say they want to do flip seats in their state?!?!) does not get all the get credit for Virginia's transformation over the years.

VA is electing some of the most progressive people to that state legislature because that's what people want. M4A. Green New Deal, living wages.

People are engaging in the political process for the first time because they have a candidate who is fighting for what they want.

Not because some centrist middle of the road Democrat who was paid to fight against many popular policies years ago said he wanted more seats to turn blue.

To answer your question: There is a two party system both sharing and enjoying a duopoly and Bernie is running as a D to get people engaged and to turn the party inside out.

It's working.
0%
 

nick77

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You think AOC is bad.... that was the first wave. It's not just a landslide of GOP congresspeople retiring (you can add Peter King to that list today) but there is a whole handful of actual leftists running and conservative Democrats that share many of the same beliefs and talking points as you are getting primaried.

I'm talking about actual leftist candidates, something you haven't seen nor understand. And they're getting funded and they're getting organized.

It will be interesting to see how many of them get in.
 

nick77

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Looking more and more like Bloomberg running was just another bluff. I just don’t think he would make much traction even if he did.

Looks like Biden is holding steady and polling over 30 in all the very recent info I’ve read. If he can rectify some of his cash on hand numbers I think he’s sitting in a good position going forward. I think you’ll see in the upcoming poll releases that Warren might slip slightly. Bernie will hold his usual around 20%.

A lot of Joe Biden/Kamala Harris ticket circulating if Joe gets the nomination. I know there’s been some talk of the young Floridian, Andrew Gillum, as a potential VP for him, but a Biden/Harris ticket could be a strong tandem in a general election.
Biden would appoint literally anyone if it maximized his chances to get elected. I could see him going after Gillum because he was Mayor in FL. He was endorsed by Bernie btw, I know VP doesn't do much but would be interesting how or if his politics changes down the road.

RE: Bloomberg, he's not going to file in the early states but if Bernie does well he'll dump everything into NY and CA to try frag the delegate. I'm upset and disappointed because I want him to file in the early states and frag the Pete, Biden and Warren vote - I can't see any scenario where Bloomberg takes any of Bernie's votes but Warren has a lot of centrist support (and of course, so does Pete and Biden).
 

viviajm

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What I am really anxious to see is who will be the running mate for Bloomberg or Biden..My biggest horror would be John Kerry at Veep.
 

nick77

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I doubt it will.

I haven't heard anything. But only Biden would be so dense to think that John Kerry would somehow help him and make him electable.
He'd pick anyone regardless of their politics. He'd pick someone like Kasich a Republican in a critical swing state for the GOP and try to sit there and talk about unity and reaching across the isle.
 

KU4LIFE

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He'd pick anyone regardless of their politics. He'd pick someone like Kasich a Republican in a critical swing state for the GOP and try to sit there and talk about unity and reaching across the isle.
Biden is or was very close friends with John McCain. I don’t think it would be out of the realm of possibility that Biden pulls a McCain and takes on a very moderate conservative like Kasich as his running mate, much like John wanted to do with Lieberman. With that being said, I think Kamala Harris is going to be his VP nominee.
 

KU4LIFE

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Welp, so much for sleepy Joe just withering away. New Quinnipiac poll out of New Hampshire this afternoon shows “with fewer than 100 days to go until New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary, Biden stands at 20%, with Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts at 16%, South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 15% and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont at 14% in a tight race for second place. No other candidates reach double digits in the poll.”

Biden camp also feels they’re doing much much better in Iowa than the media is portraying.
 

nick77

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Welp, so much for sleepy Joe just withering away. New Quinnipiac poll out of New Hampshire this afternoon shows “with fewer than 100 days to go until New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary, Biden stands at 20%, with Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts at 16%, South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 15% and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont at 14% in a tight race for second place. No other candidates reach double digits in the poll.”

Biden camp also feels they’re doing much much better in Iowa than the media is portraying.
No one said he was withering away and this is one poll there. People got real excited about Pete in the past. I waited until about 5-6 separate polls before I declared Warren had stopped surging. Waited about as many to say Bernie had a bump.

Last I heard though Biden was abandoning the first 3 contests and focusing on SC before before Super Tuesday. If that changes that will tell us that they now think the tide has turned.

It also says right in the crosstabs that Bloomberg wasn't added until day 3 of polling which can totally change the dynamic.

I'm waiting to see more. No doubt good news for Joe, you benefit from the media exposure (that is, if they bother reporting on it) of these polls and flout them, they help.
 

nick77

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Lots of smoke that Deval Patrick throws his hat into the ring.

Yet another uninspiring centrist that would take next to no votes from Bernie. He was the governor of Mass after Romney. This is a Super Tuesday state and he'd def take votes from Warren and Biden.

Thrilled. Hope he gets his ass in gear in time for Iowa and NH.
 

KU4LIFE

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No one said he was withering away and this is one poll there. People got real excited about Pete in the past. I waited until about 5-6 separate polls before I declared Warren had stopped surging. Waited about as many to say Bernie had a bump.

Last I heard though Biden was abandoning the first 3 contests and focusing on SC before before Super Tuesday. If that changes that will tell us that they now think the tide has turned.

It also says right in the crosstabs that Bloomberg wasn't added until day 3 of polling which can totally change the dynamic.

I'm waiting to see more. No doubt good news for Joe, you benefit from the media exposure (that is, if they bother reporting on it) of these polls and flout them, they help.
There just hasn’t been hardly any New Hampshire polls to date. Just the media assuming it would be Sanders/Warren.

I think Warren peaked too soon. She was literally unscathed for months. She just steadily climbed in the polls and then the Medicare for all fiasco came and for the first time she had to take criticism and she’s showing her thin skinned nature and trying to see her explain away her plan has not gone well for her. Also, her electability has been questioned by the moderates and many in the media.

I don’t know if mayor Pete has peaked or not, but there has always been questions about the diversity of his campaign. If Biden can show strengths in the polls better than he has been showing in the last month, that does not bode well for Pete.

There seems to be a Biden resurgence in the last week. I think going on 60 minutes helped and I think all the media coverage he is getting with the Trump impeachment has only benefited him. He’s going to get the limelight tonight on CNN probably at a perfect time. Don’t bet for a second he’s not going to bring up today’s polling out of New Hampshire. Also with the super PAC generating media coverage to combat Trump. I think he’s starting to generate some momentum. I guess we shall see. With the local polling numbers from candidates like Harris, Booker, Castro, I think you’re going to start seeing some of these candidates drop out very soon. I think this bodes very well for Biden.

Eager to see if Klobuchar picks up some steam. It kind of feels like one more candidate is going to have a resurgence kind of like Warren and mayor Pete has had. Amy might be that person.

At the end of the day, I just get a general feel come super Tuesday this is going to be a Biden versus Sanders battle. My money would be on Biden by then. You just know the media is going to hammer home the electability issue.
 

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Biden is or was very close friends with John McCain. I don’t think it would be out of the realm of possibility that Biden pulls a McCain and takes on a very moderate conservative like Kasich as his running mate, much like John wanted to do with Lieberman. With that being said, I think Kamala Harris is going to be his VP nominee.
I would be shocked to see this. Anyone wanting a moderating voice would already want Biden. His play, in my opinion, would be to get a younger more vibrant VP candidate. I think he'd be more likely to do what McCain did, just with more vetting: ie find someone the base will like. If it was a Biden/conservative-moderate voice he can kiss the youth vote goodbye and the enthusiasm of the base, which will be critical given the Trump base.

If I had to predict right now, Biden would choose Kamala first, and Castro second, or, long shot here, Stacey Abrams.
 

KU4LIFE

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I would be shocked to see this. Anyone wanting a moderating voice would already want Biden. His play, in my opinion, would be to get a younger more vibrant VP candidate. I think he'd be more likely to do what McCain did, just with more vetting: ie find someone the base will like. If it was a Biden, conservative/moderate voice he can kiss the youth vote goodbye and the enthusiasm of the base, which will be critical given the Trump base.

If I had to predict right now, Biden would choose Kamala first, and Castro second, or, long shot here, Stacey Abrams.
I think it’s going to be Kamala. Just too much smoke.
 

hill6

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I think it’s going to be Kamala. Just too much smoke.
Added a third one that may be interesting: Stacey Abrams.

Smart, minority woman, puts Georgia in play, and would really rally a lot of suburban women and minorities to vote.
 
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KU4LIFE

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Added a third one that may be interesting: Stacey Abrams.

Smart, minority woman, puts Georgia in play, and would really rally a lot of suburban women and minorities to vote.
She would be a super strong choice. Of course there’s always those that champion Michelle Obama. Doubt she would do it.
 

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Recent polling by credible sources accumulated in a Pew Foundation release should give pause to anyone thinking that Trump is either a sure loser or sure winner. In popularity votes, Biden beats Trump in the 8-10% range. As does Warren. Bernie wins but in a statistical tie. But in the key Electoral College states, the race of Trump vs any D nominee is currently too close to call. These early polls obviously do not reflect the intense campaign that is coming or unknown future events. Trump is counting on a repeat of 2016 with a weak D and a super energized base. Food for thought with less than a year to go.
 

nick77

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Sep 27, 2003
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Biden already asked Abrams months ago before he announced. She turned it down. The idea was he'd announce the ticket outright. She would be a good fit, Abrams is right/center-right just like Biden. Politically they aren't far off.

Pete can do well in NH and IA but he has like 1% if that of the black vote. Someone needs to say it. Bernie was polling better with them than that 4 years ago and he got crushed in the southern states. Then again the dynamic was different: it was just him and Hillary.

Correct, Warren peaked early. That same poll that @KU4LIFE posted had some interesting splits on level of support:



Bernie has the strongest most solid support of course and Liz and Pete have very weak, shaky support.

Also I hate to be "that guy" but this poll has always traditionally under polled Bernie compared to just about every other poll.

The campaign believes that Bernie is out performing polling in a lot of places but we shall see. That definitely was the case in 2016 with multiple upsets in quite a few states.

We got the top 3 overall: Biden, Bernie, Liz and they all are in good shape. No one should get excited about any single one poll just yet nor should they start guaranteeing results.

82 or 83 days or so to go before Iowa.
 

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