Who Will Get Dem Nomination?

Discussion in 'The Slant Political Board' started by Jmerhawk, Sep 12, 2019.

  1. jt212713

    jt212713 Senior
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    I was talking about the political calculus, not your homophobia.
     
  2. jt212713

    jt212713 Senior
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    I don’t care. Was curious why she thinks it’s good politics. Taylor signed the contract. Someone bought the company that held the rights. Everyone was a winner. TS wants to Re-trade the deal.
    I bet Taylor and Warren are LP’s in PE or some alternative asset class. I bet 2/3’s of this board are invested in PE and just don’t know if.
     
  3. nick77

    nick77 All-American
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    I don't know how much you really know about Warren but this is entirely in line with her previous work and advocacy since at least 2012 if not earlier.

    She think it's good politics because the people that don't like this would never in a million years have voted for her in the first place. Zero political risk here.

    0%.
     
  4. AZ j-hawk

    AZ j-hawk All-American
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    Your jerk off wealth, no matter how it’s attained.
    My type of homophobia would lead me to vote for Mayor Pete 15 or 16 times against that orange sack of shit you constantly defend ... because he’s wealthy.
     
    nick77 likes this.
  5. jt212713

    jt212713 Senior
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    You’re such an idiot. Congrats.
     
  6. bjabrad

    bjabrad Hall of Fame
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    Obama knew how to win. Bernie doesn't. Bernie's only purpose is to shift the Overton window towards socialism which Putin and Poohbear would love.
     
  7. KU4LIFE

    KU4LIFE Hall of Fame
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    So with the recent polling having mayor Pete leading in both Iowa and New Hampshire, it got me thinking. Why mayor Pete and not Amy Klobacher?

    The mayor is getting absolutely buried in more diverse states. There just doesn’t appear to be a real path for him to gain enough support from African-Americans for him to win the DNC primary. 40% of the electorate are African-American.

    So how long do we expect mayor Pete to keep this momentum going knowing he’s going to be #1 target by other candidates in tonight’s DNC debate? If I was Amy Klobuchar I would be on the offensive all night against the mayor. She’s really the mayors one true rival in the sense they occupy similar roles as moderate leaning Midwesterners.

    When comparing the two she’s the only one with real life national government experience while being in the Senate. She has actual experience with trade, climate, agricultural, and health care issues. All extremely important issues for 2020. She’s the one that can actually speak to women’s issues. Remember the highest percentage of Democratic voters are African-American women. She’s probably one of the more socially conservative candidates in the field and that should align very well with African-American women.

    So why the disconnect with her compared to Mayor Pete? Is it all about Misogyny? If Biden were to falter and the more moderate leaning Democrats wanted a Electable candidate, then shouldn’t Klobacher be your key to victory?
     
  8. nick77

    nick77 All-American
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    I'm just going to say that this would be the absolutely worst possible ticket the Dems could put up and it has almost no chance of happening, thank god.

    This is quite possibly, the only scenario where Trump wins in land slide.
     
  9. KU4LIFE

    KU4LIFE Hall of Fame
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    But why? Outside of not being progressive enough for you what has Amy Klobuchar done that would make her the worst ticket? For a Midwestern guy who grew up in rural Kansas, She’s pretty much the only candidate that actually truly speaks to me. Yet, many of her policies and ideas would be good for everyone, not just in the Midwest.

    If the objective is to get elected in a general election and win back many of these mid western rural states wouldn’t someone like Klobuchar be ideal? She actually speaks on issues that are important to rural people unlike vast majority of the Democratic candidates. The folks on the coast are going to vote Democrat no matter what, but there’s a huge chunk of the United States, most notably those swing states in the Midwest, that are up for grabs. You just can’t win any general election getting votes out of just the urban areas. Ask Hillary how that worked out for her.
     
  10. nick77

    nick77 All-American
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    The short version:

    Pete is dumping all of his cash on those two states. He is barely polling at 1% with people of color. You aren't winning with that. When he gets to double digits lets talk. Nationally he's at 6-8% overall - not POC but everywhere. Booker and Kamala aren't even doing well with the POC vote.

    Pete has a lot to answer for that has hardly been discussed in these threads or on a national stage but while he's gaining some crossover support from Warren, we may see him be exposed on stage tonight and have to answer to some things.

    Klobuchar is just not getting anywhere near the nomination. Her home state is on Super Tuesday so it's possible she hangs on while getting 0 delegates in the first four contests.

    If one of them somehow wins the nomination and chooses the other, it would be a disaster. Hillary couldnt beat the worst candidate ever, they lost the Senate and House, millions stayed home. Millions.

    It's still early though. 75 days until Iowa. We've seen many surges and dips, ebs and flows. But that proposed ticket wouldn't inspire anyone outside of the "vote blue no matter who" and "#NeverTrump"ers. You need independents, you need people who traditionally don't get the polls to be excited to get out there.

    Clinton/Kaine failed that last year and the Ds lost all down ballot as a result.
     
  11. KU4LIFE

    KU4LIFE Hall of Fame
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    I never brought up a Amy Klobuchar/Pete Buttigieg ticket. I was saying why not Amy instead of mayor Pete. Re-read what I said.

    I said for all of those people voting for the mayor, knowing full well he’s not going to get the support he needs from the African-American vote, why wouldn’t you throw your support to Klobuchar? That’s all I was getting at.
     
  12. nick77

    nick77 All-American
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    Whoops, yeah I re-read. Seeing them suggested as a ticket together was just astonishing and I stopped reading. I misread.

    So for the Pete supporters - and at 75 days away from IA what I type now is relevant as of this writing - a lot of that newfound support is actually from Liz.

    But you bring up a good point because Liz is more progressive. Pete and Klobuchar are both Republicans. I don't care what anyone says, they are mostly socially liberal, but they are well to the right of center and are aligned more politically than quite perhaps any other pairing.

    So you've got a good point. But for whatever reason, older, white, highly educated liberals have long favored Warren but Pete is dumping massive amounts of Wall Street cash into early states and the shiny new toy is converting some support from Warren.

    I think some of Klobuchar's lack of support is the stories of abusing her staff. She doesn't have that charm.

    To the rest of your point: tonight I would expect to see Amy and Liz hit him. Tulsi too. He's going to have a target on his back and like I said he has a lot of stuff to answer for: The Kenyan stock photos, The Douglass plan - both of these were straight up fabrication and misleading of black support. The racist cops in his hometown, him firing the black chief of police. None of this has come up.
     
  13. KU4LIFE

    KU4LIFE Hall of Fame
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    No candidate are without warts. Some are just bigger than others.

    The difference between the Democrats and the Republicans is that Democrats love to eat their own. Which we saw in 2016, the GOP was willing to look the other way when it came to Donald Trump. He was an outsider. So he wasn’t held to the same standards as others. It also didn’t hurt that his base just wasn’t GOP only. People were looking for a certain type of candidate and the rest of the 2016 GOP field was not what they were looking for. Hillary definitely wasn’t what people were looking for.
     
  14. bjabrad

    bjabrad Hall of Fame
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    Democrats eat their own???
    GOP voters were looking for a certain type of candidate that wasn't in the field???
    Perhaps the most ignorant statements ever on the slant. Congrats on your achievement.
     
  15. nick77

    nick77 All-American
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    While it find it interesting, it is no way scientific. But PredictIt has Warren and Biden a virtual tie - not too long ago she was like 15c/share up on Biden and Biden was higher than he was now - both have slid.

    Pete is high as he's ever been and right behind them with Bernie right behind him as high as he's ever been. This isn't oddsmakers but shares being transacted amongst speculators. Should be some movement after tonight's debates.

    Liz 24c
    Biden 23c
    Pete 19c
    Bernie 15c
     
  16. nick77

    nick77 All-American
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    Kamala Harris dropping out. She was on the ropes. Will be very interesting to see the upcoming polls and where this all shakes out.

    RIP #khive
     
  17. bjabrad

    bjabrad Hall of Fame
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    Tulsi Gabbard ended the run of Kamala Harris. She just didn't know it yet.
     
  18. nick77

    nick77 All-American
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    PredictIt.org "Who will win the Democratic Primary" market

    Has Biden back on top at 27c/share.

    Liz and Pete as of this minute at 19c/share and Bernie at 18c.

    In October Liz peaked at 51c/share. Bernie was always hovering around 13/14c regardless but poll after poll after poll after poll investor confidence and capitalism finally went to work. If I were to cash out my Bernie shares right now I'd net a little under $600 after the site's cut. I probably should right now just for bird in the hand. Who knows, then I could donate it all to the very frequent Go Fund Me fundraisers for people dying because they can't afford the treatment I see constantly all over my social media.
     
  19. nick77

    nick77 All-American
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    guess this makes Liz the only woman of color in the race now
     
  20. AZ j-hawk

    AZ j-hawk All-American
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    Harris dropping will boost Biden. Real turning point will be when Warren or Sanders drop.
     
  21. nick77

    nick77 All-American
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    Could be Liz as well. I know some Harris voters that were clear about a woman of color being #1, then a woman in general at #2. I can't see Bernie benefiting from this.
     
  22. nick77

    nick77 All-American
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    Typical Joe Biden speech. He's lost it. And this was from 2017.

     
  23. nick77

    nick77 All-American
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    John Kerry endorses Joe Biden.
     
  24. inthephog

    inthephog Freshman
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  25. nick77

    nick77 All-American
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    Mentioned it in a recent post and added another post showing where Bernie gained 2 on Biden.

    A couple things here. This was taken before Kamala dropped out. The dynamic totally changes as people drop. But the biggest thing is a whopping 32% Republicans were polled and 63% polled were moderate or conservative.
     
  26. nick77

    nick77 All-American
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    Real Cherry Picker without multiple polls, or selectively added where convenient to fit a narrative, yet it still shows Warren and Pete dropping.

    [​IMG]
     
  27. kcjhawk23

    kcjhawk23 Junior
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    Nobody supported Harris.
     
  28. nick77

    nick77 All-American
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    she was a front runner until about March or so, took a swipe at Biden in April or somewhere, briefly spiked again. People found out more about her record.

    But she still had some support, just not enough to justify spending money on a failing campaign.
     
  29. bjabrad

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    Warrens electability took a nosedive when she became too honest with the public about what she wanted to do.
     
  30. nick77

    nick77 All-American
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    Bad day for Pete in the polls today. Monmouth (-1) and Quinnipiac (-7)
     
  31. nick77

    nick77 All-American
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    Jennifer Rubin is such trash.

    She opines about how Yang didn't qualify for the December debate. He did. The Monmouth Poll dropped today and was expecting to meet the polling threshold there but didn't. But there was just one more poll to go.. the Quinnipiac Poll.. which he hit 4% and has indeed qualified.

     
  32. nick77

    nick77 All-American
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    Also how is it a phenomenon when Castro and Steyer fail to qualify? LOL, that was always the expectation of anyone that has been remotely paying attention.

    Then again she hilariously once tweeted how Beto stole all Bernie's thunder and base over something hardly even significant - a slight poll bump IIRC.
     
  33. nick77

    nick77 All-American
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    I summarized about 5 polls that came out yesterday and today. Bottom line: Bernie is still surging. Warren and Pete dropping, Joe is hanging around and is gaining a little but the top two are tightening somewhat (Biden, Bernie).
     
  34. nick77

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  35. nick77

    nick77 All-American
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    This is without a doubt the most articulate, objective comparison between Bernie and Warren. I know many of you just don't know the differences and there are many, many, many of them.

    @jt212713 I think if you were read to this word for word you might get a better understanding of their end game philosophies in their respective administrations. I know you were only being funny in saying they each want to entirely destroy capitalism.
     
  36. nick77

    nick77 All-American
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    We'll see if that's an outlier but I posted in the Bernie thread where gained 7 points, leap frogging Warren right behind Joe who's dropping in a SC state poll.

    SC is the *one* state Joe needs to win in the first four. He could place dead last and not be viable in IA, NH, and NV and still have a case for cleaning up the southern states in Super Tuesday but SC is his firewall.
     
  37. viviajm

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    Neither Warren or Bernie. Now it looks like Biden unless Hilary jumps in which is really scary.
     
  38. jt212713

    jt212713 Senior
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    Hey Nick- remember when I told you M4A was a losing position? well, Warren now agrees and is already waffling and adopting the Mayor Pete position of a choice in the matter. She’s such a loser. At least Bernie is a fully committed socialist. Warren can’t even get that right.
     
  39. nick77

    nick77 All-American
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    I've been saying for weeks now in various threads that Warren never had any intention to implement it, just like all the others that were co-opting the hype from the majority of Americans, including conservatives that wanted it.

    Guess why she suddenly tanked in poll after countless poll? It all started right after she waffled, there were no blunders (besides this one), no bad sound bytes, gaffes, etc. Her changing her position was the only factor. Many went to Bernie (still surging by the way) or to Pete - whom we now know he worked with BCBS Michigan at McKinsey to increase profits by raising rates, kicking people off health care and throwing people out of their jobs, no wonder he has his position on that.

    On the record, she doesn't have Pete's position. She finally revealed her plan that built upon two impossible pillars, and also said it would be around year three she would start it. So she's trying to find that goldilocks zone where she can appease people with my stance on M4A but also signal the big money people that no, it's really not happening.

    Well everyone saw right through it. At least Pete since the spring was up front about it and used his well coached Republican talking points on it straight from the DNC.
     
  40. nick77

    nick77 All-American
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    Couple more polls today, Liz tanking still. 538's model for what it is, has Bernie in second place nationally. That can completely change as the first four results come in. The belief is that Bernie is still being under polled.

    The Bernie campaign is feeling very good, I know this not because of their social media sunshine pumping stuff but I'm a campaign volunteer and I know paid employees who have candidly spoken with me off the record.
     

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