Who Will Get Dem Nomination?

Discussion in 'The Slant Political Board' started by Jmerhawk, Sep 12, 2019.

  1. nick77

    nick77 All-Conference
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    Right, when looked at objectively, when stepping outside of our social media bubbles and anecdotal experiences Joe has the inside track 3 months out. 3 days in todays campaigning is a lifetime.

    I've seen a lot of trends up and down in this race.

    My bold prediction is we won't know until the eve of Super Tuesday as results starting pouring in and that of the first four contests, Joe will only win SC. Momentum means everything these days.

    I of course will evolve my objective, educated guess in this thread as the world turns. Thanks for sharing your opinion.
     
  2. nick77

    nick77 All-Conference
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    The narrative is that billionaires are scared of Warren. Far from it. George Soros just endorsed her - and at least 30 billionaire donors have been uncovered going back to her Senate days

    Why are billionaires cozy with Warren?
     
  3. bjabrad

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    One socialist billionaire who is trying to collapse the American system of government. That’s the best reason not to vote for her.
     
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  4. jt212713

    jt212713 Senior
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    Mega billionaire supports candidates that want to destroy capitalism...all in the name of helping the little guy. /wink wink


    Incredible how gullible people can be!
     
  5. nick77

    nick77 All-Conference
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    There are candidates that want to destroy capitalism? Damn I thought I was pretty dialed in. I might be supportive of this notion.. who are these candidates?
     
  6. nick77

    nick77 All-Conference
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    There's a spot on explanation of the top 3, and even top 4, Pete in a video I posted in the Bernie thread - in regards to the state of the field.
     
  7. jt212713

    jt212713 Senior
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    You already do. Bernie and Warren.

    even though Warren claims to be a capitalist to her (Cherokee) bones...
     
  8. nick77

    nick77 All-Conference
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    That's news to me!!

    I likely know more about the these two individuals than the entire collective of this board.
     
  9. jt212713

    jt212713 Senior
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    And you don’t think they want to destroy capitalism?
     
  10. Hawker-2001

    Hawker-2001 All-American
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    Stop being obtuse, you know exactly what he's talking about.
     
  11. nick77

    nick77 All-Conference
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    Well gee, let me think about this...

    One is former Republican that has tens of millions of dollars strictly from capitalism.. straight up profited by taking advantage of the less fortunate; flipped foreclosed houses; has declared themself a market capitalist to the bones.

    The other while HaS a MiLLioN DoLLaRs got it from writing multiple best-selling books to which a lot of the proceeds went directly to charity and said while not a market capitalist wants to enforce some safeguards to prevent a repeat of the great depression; is essentially running on FDR's 4th term.

    Not one of them has said they want to destroy capitalism. Both have mentioned that pure, unchecked, unfettered capitalism is not a good thing and to be honest, if you disagree with that then we need to shut this conversation down right now.
     
  12. nick77

    nick77 All-Conference
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    Sarcasm. It's called sarcasm. He's a big boy, he can press the issue if he wants.
     
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  13. nick77

    nick77 All-Conference
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    No one said FDR wanted to 'destroy capitalism' and if they did, boy were they sure wrong. He was one of the greatest things that happened to it in the 20th century.
     
  14. jt212713

    jt212713 Senior
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    We should all be skeptical of /troubled by those that benefited from free markets that now want to restrict free markets for the next guy/gal in the name of government.
     
  15. nick77

    nick77 All-Conference
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    Is this really though?

    What's wrong with someone knowing how the market works that can see the potential for abuse and that has witnessed actual abuse.

    Are you really an anarcho-captialist?

    Zero regulation
    Zero restriction
    If it allows for profit, it's needs be ok to do so, regardless of consequence, life, or limb.
    Anyone inhibiting or restricting in any form, shape, or fashion is anti-Free Market and is treading upon capitalism.

    I'm just curious because to me that's what it sounds like you're all about.
     
  16. jt212713

    jt212713 Senior
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    Still not an anarchist, as you know.

    Each of these candidates prefer private wealth confiscation, government takeover of massive chunks of the private economy (healthcare, education, utilities, etc) that would restrict opportunity and incentive for innovation, etc.

    Bernie has called himself a socialist (and not a capitalist).
    Warren faked her heritage to game the system, among other problems.

    Can't wait to learn more from them about how the government should restrict markets...what could go wrong?
     
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  17. nick77

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    If someone says they're a market capitalist to their bones and has a proven track record of profiting off the poor and destitute yet you still believe they want to destroy capitalism, I don't know what to tell you.

    I really don't know what to say.

    I can sort of get where you'd get that from Bernie. Never mind not one of his policies mentions anything remotely about destroying capitalism. You have to remember you get what he says. He will not lie, there is no hidden agenda. His message hasn't changed in 40 years. He didn't waffle or turn the tables when he got elected Mayor, to congress as a representative, nor in the Senate.
     
  18. jt212713

    jt212713 Senior
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    Imagine being a 40-ish year supporter of Bernie and not understanding unintended consequences.

    Warren and Bernie want to eliminate private schools, which is to eliminate choice, which is to eliminate opportunity for social mobility. Imagine being for that...
     
  19. nick77

    nick77 All-Conference
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    Imagine saying that two politicians you disagree with want to entirely 'destroy' an entire economic system.
     
  20. jt212713

    jt212713 Senior
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    I'm just listening to their own policy proposals. My bad.

    I should just celebrate "cancelling all student debt and making college free" and not understand the cascading economic implications?

    I should just celebrate "free healthcare" and not understand the cascading economic implications?

    I should just celebrate "eliminate billionaires" and not understand the cascading economic implications?

    Or what about Warren's work at CFPB where she put a cap on rates the credit card companies could charge the highest risk account holders? Remember that well-intentioned idea she championed? Well, credit card companies promptly fired those customers who's risk profile was no longer profitable. So, those consumers lost access to credit, but didn't lose the need for it. So they turned to, you guessed it, payday loans....and ended up MUCH worse off.

    Feel the Bern, indeed.
     
  21. nick77

    nick77 All-Conference
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    Imagine saying that two politicians you disagree with want to entirely 'destroy' an entire economic system.
     
    221 nick77, Oct 30, 2019
    Last edited: Oct 30, 2019
  22. nick77

    nick77 All-Conference
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    BREAKING: Kamala is actually still in the race, who knew

    https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/30/kamala-harris-campaign-layoffs-061112

    Kamala Harris to slash staff, restructure campaign as she hemorrhages cash

    Kamala Harris is dramatically restructuring her campaign by redeploying staffers to Iowa and laying off dozens of aides at her Baltimore headquarters, according to campaign sources and a memo obtained by POLITICO Wednesday, as she struggles to resuscitate her beleaguered presidential bid.

    The moves come as Harris is hemorrhaging cash and in danger of lacking the resources to mount a competitive bid against better-funded rivals in Iowa. The overhaul will touch nearly every facet of Harris’ operation, with layoffs or re-deployments coming at headquarters, as well as in New Hampshire, Nevada and her home state of California, a Super Tuesday prize that her advisers once viewed as a big asset.

     
  23. jt212713

    jt212713 Senior
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    The road to serfdom, my man.
     
  24. nick77

    nick77 All-Conference
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    Flip the tables and imagine an activist like myself saying the opposite about the GOP. You'd blow your top.
     
  25. bjabrad

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    Is paved with good intentions by naive bleeding heart progressives.
     
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  26. nick77

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    Beto dropped out. Kamala's campaign on life support; shuttering offices and firing staff in NH and elsewhere.

    There are 3 front runners with Pete in a "solid fourth" as CNN states it. He's dumping all of this cash into IA and polling there is improving but do not be fooled into thinking this is national support.

    His support among african americans is next to 0 and there is absolutely no way you can get the nomination with abysmal support from that demographic. He blocked Beto's lane successfully and he's running into Biden's lane to try and block him, gin up support and come off as the more conservative of the two; it's his only hope.

    Meanwhile, Bernie is polling 1st or 2nd in IA, first in NH, 2nd in SC, tied for first in NV and onto super tuesday has been either 1st or 2nd in CA yet crickets from the press.

    Warren has peaked but it's cyclical, with just under 3 months who knows. Things ebb and flow. She recently released her M4A plan while I don't agree with the funding, two of the three front runners are actively campaigning on it while the other is trying to say the ACA is the best path.

    Biden seems to be benefiting from Trump's attacks. Campaign reported over $5M+ in online donations thanks to Trump. Some polls show him plumetting 3 to 5 points, others show him increasing nearly as many.

    In other recent news, the CNN poll with Bernie in first and Warren in second, CNN itself showed an infographic with Bernie and Warren swapped, as if she had 21 and Bernie 18. AFAIK they didn't even issue a correction. Not even trying to hide it now.
     
  27. KU4LIFE

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    Still expect Biden to cleanup on Super Tuesday and beyond. I know people like to knock themselves out talking about momentum coming out of Iowa and New Hampshire but I don’t think Biden is going to be that much behind concerning delegates. he’s definitely going to rack up the delegates in the southern states. I also expect him to do well in the rust belt.
     
  28. nick77

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    That is his plan. He's got the Super PAC and his camp feels confident they can clean up Super Tuesday. In the meantime they keep him in hiding, limit his public speaking engagements and appearances, stump on the whole "I was Obama's VP therefore I am the best candidate" and just hang on during the debates, limit the unforced errors that will come and don't give anyone a "Jack Kennedy" moment.

    I don't expect him to cleanup on ST and beyond, but that's his plan.

    I honestly believe that the only way Biden gets it is if no one gets 50% +1 of all delegates to clinch, then the establishment gets to invoke super delegates and they'll absolutely push him over.

    To early to predict anything though. I've witnessed many ebbs and flows amongst all major candidates.

    If I was a Trump supporter I'd be hoping that Biden wins because he'd definitely going to make some of the same mistakes Clinton did. He'd sit there and tell everyone that he was Obama's VP and he's not Trump and Trump will sit there and lie to everyone about how great everything thing will be regardless of fact or circumstance. It's what voters want to hear.
     
  29. nick77

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    Predictit.org who will get the nomination:

    Warren 31c
    Biden 23c
    Pete 20c (highest it's ever been)
    Bernie 14c
    Yang 8c
    Hillary Clinton 6c (was trading at 10c/share a couple days ago)

    These aren't oddsmakers in Vegas, these are people speculating. The site generates a share when contracts are matched, and it takes a commission from each transaction.

    About a week ago Liz was in the low 40s. Bernie has been hovering between 12 and 14 forever. Here's the thing about these markets, people are going to dump when they think they've reached a peak and the whole bird and the hand rationale which will cause shares to plummet in price.
     
  30. cornstalk

    cornstalk Freshman
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    I really do not see Warren, I think Biden or Bernie, the person I know connected to DNC last time I talked to person said they were for Warren, but I usually never agree with them, that 52 trillion medicare Warren thing will derail her, I was reading Bill Gates would not commit to supporting Warren because of that.
     
  31. nick77

    nick77 All-Conference
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    Click to expand full tweet and get entire context.

    This pretty much sums it up.
     
  32. KU4LIFE

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    Ultimately, I still think Biden will win the primary. It will be a closely contested race all the way to the end by the four front runners.

    Unless one of them drops out I just think there’s a ceiling on which Sanders and Warren can work with. I know you can talk policies that will help all citizens and wonder why people wouldn’t vote for that, but it’s much more complex than that.

    While I do think Joe Biden will be the eventual nomination, I also understand the momentum Iowa and New Hampshire can have on a primary. I think mayor Pete will position himself in the media’s eyes as the replacement candidate to Biden. You will here this narrative that Biden is toast because he might come in third or fourth in the first two contest. That still doesn’t jive with with South Carolina and super Tuesday states that are the heart of Joe Biden presidency.

    I would feel differently about Biden’s chances if I thought there was another candidate amongst the top four that was going to steal his votes, but I’m not seeing it. Until mayor Pete can make headway with the African-American vote he’s at a severe disadvantage once you leave the white confines of the upper Midwest. I know some are quick to point out Bernie’s policies are good for African-Americans, but I see no indication African Americans are so pro-Bernie in the south.

    The media may try to push the narrative that this will come down to Warren and mayor Pete. But I think the momentum coming out of Iowa and New Hampshire is way over blown this election cycle. Just like 2016, there’s just so many variables that make this elections so very unique. The candidates that would infringe on Biden’s base are barely polling any percentile.

    So unless Biden comes down with some physical ailment that is a direct correlation to age and competency I still think he’s going to work through some of these occasional gaffes and ultimately win the nomination. The south is just another animal. An animal that is really pro-Biden... as are many Rust Belt states mayor Pete is trying to get a footing in.
     
    232 KU4LIFE, Nov 7, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2019
  33. nick77

    nick77 All-Conference
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    Pete in some ways is like how Bernie was in 2016.

    Bernie dumped everything into Iowa and used success there as momentum. He had zero ground game anywhere else until it was too late. He also had almost as poor support from the black vote.

    Pete will get crushed in the south. He'll lose big a lot of places outside of Iowa. His neighboring state of Michigan doesn't have much support for him even.

    It will be interesting to see how Bernie does in the south. That is Biden's strong hold no question but Bernie is no longer unknown.

    I realize and understand that better policy doesn't translate to votes. The good news for Bernie is that the youth voter turnout (Bernie's base) from the 2014 midterm to the 2018 midterm increased from 20% to 35%.

    2016 was in the middle of that, and all indications show that since 2018 that number is going up even more.

    I said it before but the Bernie campaign believes they have votes they just have to get them into the polls.

    If I had to bet my life on it, I'd say Biden gets the nomination but at three months out it's all speculation.

    Right now I'm enjoying the trend of Biden and Warren dipping, and Bernie surging. Who knows what next week or even Friday brings.
     
  34. KU4LIFE

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    Bernie’s path to the nomination will be if Warren keeps talking. Warren losing steam really only benefits Sanders in the long-term.

    This whole media chatter about momentum in Iowa/NH just seems overblown this cycle. What’s going to derail a Biden campaign is money. Some of this concern has been lessened due to the Super PAC backing him now. For the time being he’s going to be ok, but lose in Iowa/NH in a big way and any future donations will really start drying up. That’s the real fear for a Biden campaign. That’s when having the Black or Rust Belt vote doesn’t matter. You can’t win those states/delegates if you can’t have a ground game because your cash on hand sucks. Name recognition only takes you so far if you aren’t visable.
     
  35. nick77

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    Biden's campaign has already publicly conceded Iowa, NH, and NV. They know he's going to win SC.

    So the tone has been set for the people that fill his coffers to not panic over 3 of the 4 early states.

    He's expecting to buy out Super Tuesday and it's entirely possible he does. His campaign still has to be feeling good right now despite waffling on the Super PAC thing and his low donor energy.
     
  36. KU4LIFE

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    that’s why this race will go down to the end and be a lot closer than a lot of media members anticipated back last spring.

    I don’t think anyone anticipated Biden having that on hand cash issue that he currently is having. I also don’t think his ground game in Iowa was ever up to par, but then again his lackluster performances there in the past likely plays a part in it.

    I could see it being mutually accepted amongst the voters and Joe that Iowa is just not in the cards. That still doesn’t excuse the lack of cash donations. That can obviously change as the race goes on and he gets into some of those pro-Biden states. Get some momentum going and money will start coming his way. Obviously he’s not against using a PAC or a super PAC. That will help him with visibility.
     
  37. KU4LIFE

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    Was listening to a couple different podcasts out today from some of those Washington insiders <cough cough> and the general feel is once Elizabeth Warren speaks more to her Medicare4All plan, the public will start coming around to her.

    The prevailing thought is that she would eventually win the nomination as Biden continues to fade. Of course the same folks are talking out of the side of their mouth and proclaim Bernie has solidified his base post heart attack, Liz has plateaued, and Biden will still clean up Super Tuesday. Go figure!
     
  38. nick77

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    When the debate stage is finally down to a handful of people Bernie will be able to explain in great detail all of the funding options for his M4A - I summarized all of them in one of these threads but it's the most comprehensive, detailed, progressive and fair implementation I ever have seen.

    While I'm ecstatic there are two people with a plan, I believe that people will realize hers is a regressive implementation and really, I don't think she ever plans to implement it.
     
  39. nick77

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    Shares of Hillary are dropping and shares of Bloomberg are rising on PredictIt.
     
  40. KU4LIFE

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    Are we sure a Bloomberg entry cripples Biden? Biden’s base seems to be more of the African-American and blue collar vote. Bloomberg would like cut into Mayor Pete’s base. The educated white suburban vote.
     

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