Who Will Get Dem Nomination?

nick77

All-American
Gold Member
Sep 27, 2003
12,638
2,137
0
113
Chicago
www.richardsimmons.com
He and BJ are on ignore for me. I'll sometimes hit unignore to see what BJ has to say, but at no point do I even so much as give a passing glance to nipro's posts.
I've got BJ on ignore, I can always go to the Breitbart comment section if I want to see wild conspiracy theories or hate speech.

I should ignore Nipro but his meltdowns are epic and I love to see the context when the entire football or bball board bends him over a barrel.

I guess it is possible to toggle it when convenient.
 

Hawker-2001

Ring of Honor
Gold Member
Dec 4, 2001
16,429
2,038
0
Kansas...land of milk and honey
He and BJ are on ignore for me. I'll sometimes hit unignore to see what BJ has to say, but at no point do I even so much as give a passing glance to nipro's posts.
I did that with Hawk and Snood a long time ago...some people just have nothing to contribute. Nick does once in a while, but when he gets his panties in a bunch, there's nothing thoughtful coming from him.
 

nick77

All-American
Gold Member
Sep 27, 2003
12,638
2,137
0
113
Chicago
www.richardsimmons.com
Pete took $5600 from a Chicago attorney who tried to block the police footage of Laquan McDonald getting shot 17 times in the back as he was walking away (it was one officer who is doing time right now).

You are allowed to give $2800 for the primary and another for the general - the campaign must refund you anything over $2800 donated if they dont make it to the general but you can give it all up front.

He also was going to co-host an event with this shitbag. After the news broke, Pete canceled the event(s) and returned all the money.

This matters because Pete has a black person problem himself - one of his cops fatally shot a black person this summer and he had a problem with rampant racism in his police department, fired the black chief of police.

Also noteworthy that if this was Bernie you'd be hearing it about it non stop on all the news outlets.
 

Nipro

Senior
Gold Member
Jun 10, 2011
5,374
2,617
0
Nicky,

If you attack me, I will come back at you. Are you not used to that? I thought you would since most of your ideas are BS.

I also don't feel the need to be cordial to someone who is dishonest with their beliefs and supports what's happening today in politics. It's slimey. Your side is responsible, and you continue to do it. Therefore, you and people lie to themselves and everyone else on political issues of the day can go **** yourself.
All you're good for is throwing insults at people and telling people you live in Boston.

Even the resident white power guy on the board tries to discuss policy on occasion lol.
Why discuss policy with a lunatic? Too frustrating and it’s like banging my head against the wall. Not worth it. You won’t come to your senses so it’s a waste of my time.
 

Nipro

Senior
Gold Member
Jun 10, 2011
5,374
2,617
0
He and BJ are on ignore for me. I'll sometimes hit unignore to see what BJ has to say, but at no point do I even so much as give a passing glance to nipro's posts.
I did that with Hawk and Snood a long time ago...some people just have nothing to contribute. Nick does once in a while, but when he gets his panties in a bunch, there's nothing thoughtful coming from him.
This is why this board could be the worst in the entire network. It’s the reason there are roughly 6 posters. You guys are proud you put people on ignore, but seem clueless to the fact you are the problem not me or other posters.

The reason there is no expansion (new posters) is because you guys, and a couple of others, dominate the posts with your boring, wordy BS. You are wannabe politicians, and this is your outlet. Your establishment mindsets are the problem with politics. NO ONE WANTS TO READ YOUR DRIVEL! The Slant should suspect the group of 6 and start from scratch in this board. I’m confident the site and it’s posters would be better for it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: knaup1 and bjabrad

Nipro

Senior
Gold Member
Jun 10, 2011
5,374
2,617
0
He and BJ are on ignore for me. I'll sometimes hit unignore to see what BJ has to say, but at no point do I even so much as give a passing glance to nipro's posts.
I did that with Hawk and Snood a long time ago...some people just have nothing to contribute. Nick does once in a while, but when he gets his panties in a bunch, there's nothing thoughtful coming from him.
One more thing. The phrase “nothing thoughtful” is a sign you’re full of shit. Weenies embedded in politics use this ridiculous saying. You’re not smarter than anyone else on this board. Acting like you’re, with comments like that, drive me up the wall. It sounds elitist and is.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bjabrad

Hawker-2001

Ring of Honor
Gold Member
Dec 4, 2001
16,429
2,038
0
Kansas...land of milk and honey
One more thing. The phrase “nothing thoughtful” is a sign you’re full of shit. Weenies embedded in politics use this ridiculous saying. You’re not smarter than anyone else on this board. Acting like you’re, with comments like that, drive me up the wall. It sounds elitist and is.
Wow, you're a hateful little shit today.
 

nick77

All-American
Gold Member
Sep 27, 2003
12,638
2,137
0
113
Chicago
www.richardsimmons.com
Sources close to Biden's campaign say he is expecting to only win SC in the early states and not win IA, NH, and NV.

Win SC, and hope he does better on Super Tuesday. He took in $2M less than he spent last quarter and has just $8M cash on hand.
 

Nipro

Senior
Gold Member
Jun 10, 2011
5,374
2,617
0
One more thing. The phrase “nothing thoughtful” is a sign you’re full of shit. Weenies embedded in politics use this ridiculous saying. You’re not smarter than anyone else on this board. Acting like you’re, with comments like that, drive me up the wall. It sounds elitist and is.
Wow, you're a hateful little shit today.
Little shit? Easy to be a smart ass behind a computer. You’re a big part of the problem in this board. You try to communicate with lunatics like Hill and Nicky. A waste of your time, but you appear to like it. So you’re the middle-right version of them.

Just a bunch of blow sheds who have way too much time in theirs hands. I respected you at one point, but your Mitt Romney positioning and the “thoughtful” BS comment shows who you really are.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bjabrad

Hawker-2001

Ring of Honor
Gold Member
Dec 4, 2001
16,429
2,038
0
Kansas...land of milk and honey
Little shit? Easy to be a smart ass behind a computer. You’re a big part of the problem in this board. You try to communicate with lunatics like Hill and Nicky. A waste of your time, but you appear to like it. So you’re the middle-right version of them.

Just a bunch of blow sheds who have way too much time in theirs hands. I respected you at one point, but your Mitt Romney positioning and the “thoughtful” BS comment shows who you really are.
We're all behind a computer, dude. And you're one to talk...you're more bombastic than anyone else on here. Look in the mirror.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: nick77

viviajm

Ring of Honor
Gold Member
May 14, 2004
16,193
2,891
0
78
Liberty, MO
If you honestly have done any true research and fact-finding you would vowed long ago to never vote Democrat again.
I find this race as interesting as last years. Then we had Trump against a whole gaggle of qualifed candidates and he vanquished them all. This year the left has a number of candidates Warren seems unscathed. I expect her to win early primaries and eventually pick of Bernie voters. IMO the young whipper snapper from South Bend will be someone to be reckoned with in the future.
 

nick77

All-American
Gold Member
Sep 27, 2003
12,638
2,137
0
113
Chicago
www.richardsimmons.com
Little shit? Easy to be a smart ass behind a computer. You’re a big part of the problem in this board. You try to communicate with lunatics like Hill and Nicky. A waste of your time, but you appear to like it. So you’re the middle-right version of them.

Just a bunch of blow sheds who have way too much time in theirs hands. I respected you at one point, but your Mitt Romney positioning and the “thoughtful” BS comment shows who you really are.
You're too chicken shit to respond in the Nike thread. You said it was going to implode lol.
 

nick77

All-American
Gold Member
Sep 27, 2003
12,638
2,137
0
113
Chicago
www.richardsimmons.com
More and more rumors that Hillary is entertaining running. It is rumored that her 'Issues' page on her website has been updated. She is rising in the prediction markets.

While I hate her guts I am hoping she runs because less than 1% of Bernie supporters would switch to her and she'd siphon away a ton of voters from Biden (who doesn't need any help to crash) and more importantly, Warren.

Also Pete too, but he's irrelevant at least as of today.

We got a few months before Iowa so anything can happen.. anything can happen at all.
 

jt212713

Senior
Gold Member
Nov 4, 2008
6,320
7,651
0
The fact that Hillary believes she can win the nomination is an interesting commentary on the state of the party and the primary.
 

nick77

All-American
Gold Member
Sep 27, 2003
12,638
2,137
0
113
Chicago
www.richardsimmons.com
The fact that Hillary believes she can win the nomination is an interesting commentary on the state of the party and the primary.
The latest rumor is she told a confidant she will run if she thinks she can win.

Haha. The hubris... She doesn't understand she's one of the most reviled persons in America.

I hope she does. Some corporate Dems would drop but it'd help Bernie and even you have to agree
 
  • Like
Reactions: jt212713

nick77

All-American
Gold Member
Sep 27, 2003
12,638
2,137
0
113
Chicago
www.richardsimmons.com
CNN did it's own poll... On the heels of Biden running out of cash, had an uninspiring debate, and talks of Dem leaders not happy about the entire field all the sudden jumps 10 points. Once again, look at the crosstabs.. it was 50%+ entirely of 65+ year olds and more 40+ than 18-39.

Warren and Bernie top 3.. Pete no where near anyone (mentioning because of the outlier that was released Monday)

Also a poll doing the state of Florida decided to entirely just OMIT Bernie. As in, a top front runner within MOE of Biden was just not even an option.

So, once again peeps.. there are things called outliers. There are scientific methods and there are other methods.

We saw one crazy poll push Pete way up, we see another one with Biden gaining 10 for no reason. Before you blow your load or blow your top over results like these, check the cross tabs, check the other polls.
 
Last edited:

nick77

All-American
Gold Member
Sep 27, 2003
12,638
2,137
0
113
Chicago
www.richardsimmons.com
Another poll.. just to put into perspective, anyone can sign up for YouGov - it asks a million questions from favorite movie, to favorite Kardashian... entirely online I believe.

How it's included into RCP I can't say.

I've always been and always will be critical of this poll, it's trash. It just dropped a poll:

Biden 24 (-1)
Warren 21 (-7)
Sanders 15 (+2)

Buttigieg 8 (+2)
Harris 5
Yang 3 (+1)
Gabbard 3 (+1)
O'Rourke 2
Booker 2
Klobuchar 1 (-1)

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/s96v7z4zoa/econTabReport.pdf

How Warren would drop 7 points all the sudden without anything of note happening is beyond me. How the last one had had her shoot all the way up as well is beyond me.

Yet another reason to stop taking outliers with dramatic swings as gospel.
 

jt212713

Senior
Gold Member
Nov 4, 2008
6,320
7,651
0
The latest rumor is she told a confidant she will run if she thinks she can win.

Haha. The hubris... She doesn't understand she's one of the most reviled persons in America.

I hope she does. Some corporate Dems would drop but it'd help Bernie and even you have to agree
Agree with everything except the last sentence. She’s an awful human being.
 

nick77

All-American
Gold Member
Sep 27, 2003
12,638
2,137
0
113
Chicago
www.richardsimmons.com
Agree with everything except the last sentence. She’s an awful human being.
re: the last sentence.. Hillary joining would take 0 votes from Bernie, ok, less than 1%. She'd take votes from Biden and Warren, and also from the insignificant other Republican Lites.. Pete, Harris, et al.

How would this not help Bernie? Do you understand how elections work?
 

jt212713

Senior
Gold Member
Nov 4, 2008
6,320
7,651
0
re: the last sentence.. Hillary joining would take 0 votes from Bernie, ok, less than 1%. She'd take votes from Biden and Warren, and also from the insignificant other Republican Lites.. Pete, Harris, et al.

How would this not help Bernie? Do you understand how elections work?
Better than you. At this point, you’re either for Bernie or not in that primary. Hillary entering wouldn’t cause a Warren voter to move to Bernie, as one example. You know that.
 

nick77

All-American
Gold Member
Sep 27, 2003
12,638
2,137
0
113
Chicago
www.richardsimmons.com
Better than you. At this point, you’re either for Bernie or not in that primary. Hillary entering wouldn’t cause a Warren voter to move to Bernie, as one example. You know that.
So I can't believe I have to explain this to you but with your recent posts I'm actually not that surprised.

So it works like this.

Warren gets less voters as they defected to Hillary
Biden gets less voters as they defected to Hillary
Bernie stays the same
...
 

jt212713

Senior
Gold Member
Nov 4, 2008
6,320
7,651
0
So I can't believe I have to explain this to you but with your recent posts I'm actually not that surprised.

So it works like this.

Warren gets less voters as they defected to Hillary
Biden gets less voters as they defected to Hillary
Bernie stays the same
...
None of which helps Bernie. That was your point. Hillary getting in doesn’t help Bernie. He just loses to someone else.

keep up Nick.
 

knaup1

Senior
Gold Member
Apr 16, 2003
5,650
2,982
0
Pittsburg
Bernie, Warren, Biden?

Whoever it is is getting my vote. The Dem nomination could literally read “sack of shit” and I would still vote for it in 2020. Anything is better than the current fat embarrassment.

Normally I do my research and spend time on the issues. I have voted for both parties in the past. Not this time. I don’t even have to read anything. Easiest decision I’ve ever made and we’re still over a year away.
Here lies one of the biggest problems our country faces. Low- information voters put morons into office and then we’re all stuck with them.
Maxine, AOC, Bernie, Pelosi, Omar, Obama, Clintons, Warren, Biden, Schumer...

When will they ever learn? The problem is they never learn!
 

nick77

All-American
Gold Member
Sep 27, 2003
12,638
2,137
0
113
Chicago
www.richardsimmons.com
Tulsi just weirdly dropped out of her Congressional race to focus on the POTUS race she is not going to win.

"liberal" social media absolutely despises her, mostly Hillary Clinton superfans and have been smearing her as of late. She does have some valid criticisms, especially on Modi and Kashmir, but a TON of the current "oppo" on her floating around are hit pieces composed of entirely made up things to things taken out of context, or things from her past that she has genuinely evolved from.

Doesn't matter though, she's not going anywhere near the nomination. As @jt212713 would say about his nightmare and boogeyman that keeps him huddled into a ball under the covers late at night, I can feel comfortable with saying "0%" when it comes to Tulsi and the nomination.

Like just about everything in politics, it's not a binary situation as to whether she is "good" or "bad". She supports many noble things and called out the DNC for its corruption and fixing of the primaries and for many, it was the first exposure people had to the notion that the DNC isn't exactly Democratic and looking out for the best interests of the people when it was assumed they were, because, Republicans bad (and for the most part, that they are bad).

I looked at her opponent who is gaining steam and he's a bona fide progressive. He supports a true Medicare For All (something Tulsi never did), supports Bernie's War Powers resolution, Green New Deal... these are the litmus test for a progressive and he has passed them. At first glance he passes all the other standard boiler plate items such as LGBT, income disparity, etc.

In a bit of irony these Bernie bashing pro-Hillary superfans have been endorsing Kai Kahele to spite Tulsi and they don't know whether to shit or go blind when I point out he's running on Bernie's platform and they are at conflict with all their MSNBC (and conservative) talking points about how all these things won't work; ie, I've presented to them their bias and double standard.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: bjabrad

KU4LIFE

Hall of Fame
Gold Member
May 29, 2001
44,198
8,587
0
Joe Biden is going to win the nomination. Thought that last May and I think that even more today. I still don’t see a path for another candidate unless something catastrophic comes out on Sleepy Joe.

He has the minority vote, Rust Belt vote, baby boomer vote, and there will be a large pool of independents and RINO’s that will vote for him. His reliance has never been on the progressive vote. He just has to get just enough of that vote for it to matter.

There’s a reason Trump primarily attacks him. He’s the one guy in a general election that will hurt him for votes in key battle ground states. Unions will be a big factor. Trump hurt Hillary biggly here. He won’t have the same advantage vs the Union poster boy in Biden.
 

jt212713

Senior
Gold Member
Nov 4, 2008
6,320
7,651
0
Biden’s biggest obstacle against Trump will be voter enthusiasm. Hard to see D’s coming out in enough numbers to beat Trump. He can’t raise money and looks/sounds really old. I’m skeptical he can pull it off.
 

cornstalk

Sophomore
Gold Member
Nov 22, 2003
2,037
408
0
Tulsi just weirdly dropped out of her Congressional race to focus on the POTUS race she is not going to win.

"liberal" social media absolutely despises her, mostly Hillary Clinton superfans and have been smearing her as of late. She does have some valid criticisms, especially on Modi and Kashmir, but a TON of the current "oppo" on her floating around are hit pieces composed of entirely made up things to things taken out of context, or things from her past that she has genuinely evolved from.

Doesn't matter though, she's not going anywhere near the nomination. As @jt212713 would say about his nightmare and boogeyman that keeps him huddled into a ball under the covers late at night, I can feel comfortable with saying "0%" when it comes to Tulsi and the nomination.

Like just about everything in politics, it's not a binary situation as to whether she is "good" or "bad". She supports many noble things and called out the DNC for its corruption and fixing of the primaries and for many, it was the first exposure people had to the notion that the DNC isn't exactly Democratic and looking out for the best interests of the people when it was assumed they were, because, Republicans bad (and for the most part, that they are bad).

I looked at her opponent who is gaining steam and he's a bona fide progressive. He supports a true Medicare For All (something Tulsi never did), supports Bernie's War Powers resolution, Green New Deal... these are the litmus test for a progressive and he has passed them. At first glance he passes all the other standard boiler plate items such as LGBT, income disparity, etc.

In a bit of irony these Bernie bashing pro-Hillary superfans have been endorsing Kai Kahele to spite Tulsi and they don't know whether to shit or go blind when I point out he's running on Bernie's platform and they are at conflict with all their MSNBC (and conservative) talking points about how all these things won't work; ie, I've presented to them their bias and double standard.
 

cornstalk

Sophomore
Gold Member
Nov 22, 2003
2,037
408
0
Tulsi was on Hannity last night was critical of Hilliary only, Hannity was asking about other dem candidates she was not critical of any, later a pollster for the dems, his names slips me said he wish Hilliary would forget about running she can not win
 

KU4LIFE

Hall of Fame
Gold Member
May 29, 2001
44,198
8,587
0
Biden’s biggest obstacle against Trump will be voter enthusiasm. Hard to see D’s coming out in enough numbers to beat Trump. He can’t raise money and looks/sounds really old. I’m skeptical he can pull it off.
That’s a key issue with Biden, but compared to Hillary I don’t think it’s as big of an issue.

I think the Democrats will come out in record numbers regardless of the nomination, but I don’t see this “Never Biden” element that was so rampant with Hillary.

While some of the more progressive vote might not turn out for Biden I do think the minority and to an extent Rust Belt vote will. He’s a highly popular candidate almost union workers and African-Americans. Two huge heartbeats of the Democratic Party.

I think all you did was hang out on Twitter and watch MSNBC you might get the vibe Biden is riding a wave of discontentment, but I think there’s a sizeable contingent of the country just lying quiet and buying time until the primaries waiting to vote. Most notably baby boomers that don’t spend all day on social media. Many of the same people that voted Trump last election. Maybe not the SAME people, but people you can’t see or hear from compared to the vocal crowd on social media.
 

KU4LIFE

Hall of Fame
Gold Member
May 29, 2001
44,198
8,587
0
One thing I might add is that my job takes me to many different places and I hear and talk to many different types of people. You would be shocked how many conversations I’ve ease dropped on or I have spoken to that claim they would vote for Joe Biden. You would be shocked. Vast majority being that 50+ crowd. Unassuming people.

It’s the same with Trump. People act as if his base can’t grow, but I’m telling you there’s a lot of people that quietly go about their business that will vote for him. It may not be openly, but when time comes to vote they will be there.
 

nick77

All-American
Gold Member
Sep 27, 2003
12,638
2,137
0
113
Chicago
www.richardsimmons.com
Joe Biden is going to win the nomination. Thought that last May and I think that even more today. I still don’t see a path for another candidate unless something catastrophic comes out on Sleepy Joe.
I didn't realize voting already started and delegates were being awarded. Last I checked Iowa is Feb 3rd. I sat on this very board back in 2016 telling people Trump had almost no shot, despite his recent uptick in polling after that 'October Surprise' from Comey.

He has the minority vote, Rust Belt vote, baby boomer vote, and there will be a large pool of independents and RINO’s that will vote for him. His reliance has never been on the progressive vote. He just has to get just enough of that vote for it to matter.
Biden is the default choice because he was Obama's VP. People that don't hang out on political message boards are just now getting to know more about him and other candidates.

Regarding minorities: Bernie is the only candidate where minorities are the largest demographic of supporters.

Joe does have the Boomers and elderly but you are entirely incorrect about Independents. Bernie owns that demographic by a country mile.

Joe just needs to hold on. They are limiting his appearances because every time he opens his mouth he shoots himself the in foot. The fact that he is old and had a brain hemorrhage will be overlooked, but as the field narrows and he gets more speaking time on the debates he will only make it more difficult for himself. The less he speaks and engages, the more he lies low, the better. Can he hang on? My opinion is no.

There’s a reason Trump primarily attacks him. He’s the one guy in a general election that will hurt him for votes in key battle ground states. Unions will be a big factor. Trump hurt Hillary biggly here. He won’t have the same advantage vs the Union poster boy in Biden.
Trump attacks everyone. Everyone but Bernie. Why is that? Trump relentlessly capitalizes off of Joe's gaffes and Warren's ancestry claims but it's crickets when it comes to Bernie.

Regarding unions. The ones that endorse him are the ones where only the top brass gets to decide and that's because of a quid pro quo. Of all the unions (and these are in the majority) where the rank and file get to vote, they almost all go to Bernie. Why do you think that is? Fun fact: On Joe's campaign kick off, he had a loud and proud union buster by his side as a benefactor. This will not go unnoticed in future debates when the topic comes up.

You are entirely correct about the RINOs and Progressives.

One thing I can't stress enough is that accurately capturing Bernie's support in polls is next to impossible.

Hillary was polling 40%+ over Bernie the night before Bernie won Michigan. Those midwestern states he crushed like WI, IN, OK, NE, he out performed by similar margins. Iowa was a virtual tie and NH Bernie won by a mile but both had her polling very high.

He has the largest volunteer army, raises the most, has the most cash on hand. He owns the largest demographic and its not even close: the young eligible voters. His most difficult task is converting them to votes - getting them to actually show up.

In late October 2019, I wouldn't appoint anyone just yet.

A Biden, Bernie, or Warren win should not surprise anyone. Biden's got the inside track no doubt and he very well could win but based on the above I can't proclaim that.
 

nick77

All-American
Gold Member
Sep 27, 2003
12,638
2,137
0
113
Chicago
www.richardsimmons.com
Most Dems and many progressive independents are going to vote blue no matter who except for some in solid blue or solid red states. I didn't vote Hillary because I knew she had a lock on those EV in my state.
 

KU4LIFE

Hall of Fame
Gold Member
May 29, 2001
44,198
8,587
0
I didn't realize voting already started and delegates were being awarded. Last I checked Iowa is Feb 3rd. I sat on this very board back in 2016 telling people Trump had almost no shot, despite his recent uptick in polling after that 'October Surprise' from Comey.



Biden is the default choice because he was Obama's VP. People that don't hang out on political message boards are just now getting to know more about him and other candidates.

Regarding minorities: Bernie is the only candidate where minorities are the largest demographic of supporters.

Joe does have the Boomers and elderly but you are entirely incorrect about Independents. Bernie owns that demographic by a country mile.

Joe just needs to hold on. They are limiting his appearances because every time he opens his mouth he shoots himself the in foot. The fact that he is old and had a brain hemorrhage will be overlooked, but as the field narrows and he gets more speaking time on the debates he will only make it more difficult for himself. The less he speaks and engages, the more he lies low, the better. Can he hang on? My opinion is no.



Trump attacks everyone. Everyone but Bernie. Why is that? Trump relentlessly capitalizes off of Joe's gaffes and Warren's ancestry claims but it's crickets when it comes to Bernie.

Regarding unions. The ones that endorse him are the ones where only the top brass gets to decide and that's because of a quid pro quo. Of all the unions (and these are in the majority) where the rank and file get to vote, they almost all go to Bernie. Why do you think that is? Fun fact: On Joe's campaign kick off, he had a loud and proud union buster by his side as a benefactor. This will not go unnoticed in future debates when the topic comes up.

You are entirely correct about the RINOs and Progressives.

One thing I can't stress enough is that accurately capturing Bernie's support in polls is next to impossible.

Hillary was polling 40%+ over Bernie the night before Bernie won Michigan. Those midwestern states he crushed like WI, IN, OK, NE, he out performed by similar margins. Iowa was a virtual tie and NH Bernie won by a mile but both had her polling very high.

He has the largest volunteer army, raises the most, has the most cash on hand. He owns the largest demographic and its not even close: the young eligible voters. His most difficult task is converting them to votes - getting them to actually show up.

In late October 2019, I wouldn't appoint anyone just yet.

A Biden, Bernie, or Warren win should not surprise anyone. Biden's got the inside track no doubt and he very well could win but based on the above I can't proclaim that.
even you admitted Biden still has the inside track.

Personally, I would be shocked if he’s not the nomination, but would NOT be utterly surprised if someone else ends up winning

Just for the reason you said, Joe could end up saying something that could be his undoing or something comes out that would destroy all his credibility. I’m sure the other candidates are wishing and praying that happens. The same could happen to anyone.

At the end of the day Biden has a broad coalition of support. He’s not banking on one sect of the party to save his bacon. He appeal to a broad group of people, not just the far left. I just think people get too caught up on social media and listening to the vocal radicals. Those that usually want to bring about radical change will make the most noise.