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Is TCU a must-win game?

I've never been big on labeling games like that unless they really are. I think the Royals are playing a must-win game.

This game might be as close as you get.

Its the first conference game at home in Arrowhead. You have two teams with their backs against the wall.

The next game is on the road against Arizona State in which I think the Vegas line will have it close to a pick em.

Although you have a senior team with experience who you hope can get through times like this, these are still challenging situations. Anybody's confidence can be shaken after losing three straight with the expectations that KU started the season with.

A win against TCU can give you some momentum going on the road to Tempe and then back for a bye week before they will be heavy favorites against Houston.

Conference play is already off to a weird start and after Saturday either Kansas State or Oklahoma State is going to have two losses.

Some were calling West Virginia a must win but I said I didn't think it was. My thoughts change for the TCU game.

News and Notes Updates from Jeff Grimes - TCU week

Thought they made improvement against WV and less mistakes but still not enough production.

Told team they have to find ways to get past those last mistakes.

They cut down on mistakes but still need big plays. In college a lot of teams have more explosive plays to overcome mistakes.

In the passing game need better protection and Daniels masks some of those issues because he can escape.

Wasnt with team until fall camp so still getting back in sync with WR.

On 3rd and 4 there was no miscommunication with OL when asked.

Spent delay some time with players and some with coaches and some with players.

Being in booth can see game better.

TCU had trouble with UCF and SMU run games. Said they will be prepared for TCU and what they do. Said he knows the coaches at TCU and they are good coaches.

I asked him about Dykes saying KU runs it on more on third and medium more than any team he's seen. Grimes said he likes to stay balanced and that means running it at times when the defense expects the pass.

Thought Bumgardner played well stepping in for Grimes.

Felt Daniels played better and a little bit more freed and loose.
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Faulty Memories

I think some people are forgetting how bad the "bad" years were prior to HCLLs arrival.

Yes, we are 1-3, but we have had leads in the 4th in all three losses. We have a good team that is underperforming. I understand that is a problem in itself that must be addressed, but it is a much smaller problem than being down two scores halfway through the first quarter, and it only getting worse as the game goes on. Which is what we experienced for 10+ years. This year we went on the road to WVU and B1G Illinois and expected wins. We played toe to toe, it could even be argued we out played those opponents, however we fell short due to self inflicted wounds.

If feels like things are worse now because we have expectations, we have seen success, and we know we have a team that could/should win these games.

In the past we went into the FCS game hoping we could find a way to win, a couple times we didn't, and most of the time we had to fight tooth and nail to squeak out a win. The rest of the FBS games we went in expecting to lose and just hoped it wouldn't be too embarrassing. We lost 56 consecutive road games prior to HCLLs arrival. Mangino was the HC the last time we won a road game in 2008. Thirteen year drought.

Some say "We are losing games, and that is unacceptable," we have seen unacceptable, but this is not it. People say they are not going to go watch "this team," they want to make a point to the AD, the coaches, the team, or their time is just too valuable to risk watching another loss. Well, this is likely the best AD and best HFBC in the history of KU. We run these guys off and I am about 99% sure the next crew will be worse.

Despite this rough start, this is still the best football situation possibly ever at KU. Yes, we have had a couple of peak seasons, like the Orange Bowl, but never sustained success. This team could still find six wins and go to three consecutive bowls for the first time in program history. We are building a new stadium, just upgraded other facilities, this is the time to double down, not fold as fans.

Suck it up, buttercup, it could be monumentally worse than what we have experienced early this season, and if you are truly a KU football fan you should know exactly how much worse.

We have guys being considered for the Heisman, people picking us to win the conference, we have been beating out legit P5 programs for recruits as opposed to losing recruiting battles to Fresno State, UTSA, and Tulane. I get the disappoint with the last three games, but this is a good program that had a bad start.

This is not the time to quit, get your asses in Arrowhead this weekend. Recruits will be on hand wanting to see why they should consider KU, shitty fans normally isn't much of a selling point.

Observations on changes from last year

Most of these are offensive things, but these are some things I have noticed--not sure whether they are things that are making a real difference or not, but worthy of noting (as a non-football expert, but someone who has watched a fair amount of football and especially the last few years of KU football):

- Receiver rotation has been minimal, and we are not mixing and matching at all. We heard all summer about how Trevor Wilson looked like a true deep threat and he has 2 catches through four games, one of which was in garbage time. We used the entire receiving corps more last year. Some of the starters have not impressed, and we need to either unleash them or try other options IMO.

- Speaking of receivers, they all forgot how to block. One of the things that made our running game really hum the last few years was that if a runner got to the edge, there was going to be a receiver out there fighting his corner or safety like hell to break him. Watch some of the big runs from Bean and Neal and Hishaw the last few years and watch the downfield blocking. Watch it now, and the tenacity is not there, nor is the form. No idea what happened.

- We don't throw to backs any more. Getting guys like Neal and Morrison in space makes so much sense. it is a low risk pass, too, so can build confidence for everyone. And we don't do it any more. Five total catches for our backs in four games.

- We rarely run pace any more. We used to keep defenses on their heels because we would mix in pace at times and run a confident offense with concepts built around a fixed set of plays that could be varied and called on the fly. I haven't seen us really run pace all season (a few times with no-huddle, but not with any urgency), and that lets the defense regroup. I miss being the aggressor.

- True read option out of a full house or two back look seems gone entirely. We used to run that sparingly, but with great success. I haven't seen us even hint at it this year.

- The middle of the field is a wasteland. No throws there, not many runs there. The shortest distance between two spots is a straight line, and we are dead set on making sure we don't take that shortest path.

- On defense, the Hawk is rarely a blitzer (when we use it at all). Young was very good at getting in the backfield and tying up linemen to free other pass rushers. We aren't using him that way at all.

- Borland seems to have changed something scheme-wise with the DBs that is letting other teams run free on us way too often. I don't recall that in prior years at all. I don't know if it is a scheme thing, an understanding thing, or what. But the DBs getting burned repeatedly on slant routes and that sort of thing is new.

- Along the same lines, let the corners jam a receiver once in a while, please.

- It seems like stunting on the line is minimal right now, and that was not the case with Booker and Lonnie the last few years. If the edge guys aren't generating pressure on a straight speed or bull rush, maybe give them a shot to twist back inside and create that pressure up the middle?

There are tons of other little things that I have observed, too, but those seem like the biggest ones--what are you guys seeing that is different? Any chance any of our observations have something to do with the fourth quarter collapses?

Chicago Mayoral Election

Looks like we gonna get another Eric Adams.

Paul Vallas is the Trumpian candidate, all the Trump voters in the northwest side - where all the cops, firefighters, conservatives, and straight up racist trash (not saying they're all one and the same, but some aren't mutually exclusive, either) - vote Vallas in to the top two.

Brandon Johnson, one of the many Black candidates, is a wee bit to the left for the average traditional voter also made it to the runoff. Johnson is Black but neither candidate placed first in any of the traditional Black neighborhood precincts.

Willie Wilson, a conservative successful businessman who previously failed runs for Mayor, POTUS, and Senate did very will in some of the traditional Black neighborhoods (he's Black himself) voted for Trump and likely will endorse Vallas. Wilson, during his last mayoral campaign, was handing out cash at the local churches. The traditional Wilson voter is a middle-aged conservative, church going Democrat. These folks aren't necessarily the demographic that would get behind a Brandon Johnson.

Chuy Garcia (previously failed to challenge Rahm Emmanuel before heading to Congress) got a lot of the progressive vote but failed to make the runoff.

Lori Lightfoot the incumbent failed to make the runoff. I would expect most of her supporters to vote for Johnson. She only won as Mayor last time as a best available option when you ruled out the turds (Vallas included). The question is, how many of her supporters will turn out for the election?

Johnson has the progressive Teacher's Union behind him. Vallas is running on the tough on crime approach. And not to sound like a ghoul, but an officer was just killed in a shootout last night by an 18 year old and that will definitely help him.

Before anyone says this is a rejection of "The Left" that's not a fair assessment. The City Council has 10% DSA members. This is all about turnout and the failures of the current Mayor.

This race is going to come down to South Side Black mothers (Lightfoot's base) and the clear advantage is for Vallas. Ironically, right now the cops all over Chicago are taking down their "Let's go Brandon!" signage in their yards and off their trucks (Brandon Johnson is Vallas' opponent).

News and Notes Hawk Talk notes - TCU week

Hanni said some of the group showed up at 2:00 to get good seats.

Leipold said West Virginia was another exciting and challenging game and they knew that road winds are difficult in the Big 12. Thought they played extremely well and came out of the delay and took the lead. But in critical times when they have to play their best unfortunately they have not done that.

They won the turnover battle, had less penalties, and they are playing good but it's not good enough.

They have enough areas to improve they are small things around the team it's just not one thing. If they can shore up some of those small things the outcomes could be different. Some things happened that they aren't responding like they have in the past.

Devin Neal got his fourth straight 100-yard rushing day and got Hishaw back. Hishaw coming off the injury plate as many snaps as they wanted and he's trying to work back into more. They were able to hit some nice perimeter runs and some others in the option game.

They didn't protect Daniel's early in the game like they wanted but they made some adjustments and that got better. They found some rhythm and did some good things. Through the first four games leipold believes Daniels has stayed calm, hasn't been rattled, and is continuing to get better.

Grimm continues to play well and they might need to look to get some more targets to Skinner.

Said Withers played well and one of his better games. He said the interior defensive tackles seem to feed off each other and hasn't had a group that pushes each other like those guys do.

That motivated Tommy Dunn to pick his game up because he did not play well against West Virginia.

TCU is a team that is a year and a half removed from playing in the national championship game. Leipold said TCU had two tough losses back to back and is a good football team. Said TCU will be focused when they come into play. Sonny Dykes is a good coach. They added 24 players from the portal in 16 of those are in the two deep.

Hoover will be the best quarterback they've seen and they have talented wide receivers. TCU wants to go fast and that will be a challenge for the defense.

They do a lot of quick passes to the outside and treat those like running plays.

Leipold said this is the best the defense has played in a four-game span since he's got to KU.

Football Thoughts Some early thoughts on the TCU game

I watched TCU play three times. This will be the best passing team the defense has seen.

Josh Hoover has looked good in the games I have seen him and I think TCU has some skill players that will present problems. The offense is really good and Hoover leads the Big 12 in passing at 354 yards a game. TCU is not very good at running the ball at all. While this might be the best passing team they have gone against it might also be the worse rushing team. They don't run the ball well at all.

One area the defense will get a break this week is not having to face a running QB. They have been sliced up by the QB running, but Hoover is not much of a runner. I expect the KU defense to pin their ears back and bring pressure. It will be a positive to not have to be as concerned with a team who doesn't run it well and a QB who doesn't create yards.

I talked to some people last night close to the TCU program and got the feel their OL has struggled. This morning I looked them up and their numbers are average. Lot of OL rated in the 60's.

Defensively TCU ranks 14th in stopping the run in the conference. Granted, they played UCF who leads the nation in rushing offense. But they aren't great against the run.

TCU and KU are like two of the same teams staring at each other in the mirror. The Jayhawks have lost three straight games they could have won. TCU had a 21-point lead on UCF and lost the game in the final minute. Then they lost a rivalry game where they were never close after the first quarter to SMU. They are down emotionally and now have to go on the road. We all know KU is searching for answers, but so is TCU.

Against SMU, TCU played as poorly as they can. Hoover threw his only two picks of the season and they fumbled five times, losing three of them. They also allowed a punt return for a TD. You aren't winning any game giving it away five times and giving up a special teams score.

I like this matchup on paper for the Jayhawks. But, they need to find a way to start winning games instead of losing them. TCU does have a nice road win against Stanford to start the season. Early on, I like the way this game shapes up for KU.

Depth Chart Without Seniors

QB - Daniels/Ballard
RB - Hishaw/Morrison
WR - Emilien/?
WR - Kubecka/Sample
WR - Moeller/Cohoon
TE - Cure/Hamm
LT - Clements/Doiron
LG - Gorczyca/Livingston
C - Foster/Herring
RG - Baynes/Sterns
RT - Brown/Doiron

DE - Jobe/Brinkley
DT - Dunn/Caldwell
DT - Withers/Herold
DE - Miller/Warner
LB - Fletcher/Kamara
LB - Gilliom/Stewart
HAWK - J. Dye/Brantley
CB - McGhee/Croft
S - D. Dye/Davis
S - Ellis/Purdy
CB - Todd/Dilworth
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