1. Cruz can't win. If Cruz can't come close to winning in a Cruz friendly state (South Carolina) then he has no path to the nomination. The SEC primary has more Cruz friendly state upcoming but Cruz is toast unless he can somehow pull off a Rubio like comeback.
2. Bush ending his campaign will help Rubio the most but more in the way of establishment donors than votes since Bush didn't have a ton of votes.
3. Cruz needs to get out ASAP. Trump will be the nominee if this remains a three way race but once Cruz drops there are more of his supporters who consider Rubio their #2 than Trump. If they're like me they view Rubio as conservative and kind of a Bush lite. Trump is better on immigration but can't be considered a trustworthy conservative since he's only been talking like a conservative for 10 minutes. Trump is more likely to be Hillary Clinton lite. Cruz won't go quietly. He's got too much invested and too much money and support left. However, the money and support will dry up quickly if he can't win the SEC primaries.
4. Clinton is still the odds on favorite to win the democrat nomination. She has too much party support (superdelegate and primary rules in her favor).
5. Real Clear Politics head to head averages:
Vs Clinton:
Trump down - 2.8
Rubio up +4.7
vs Sanders:
Trump down -7.8
Rubio tied
2. Bush ending his campaign will help Rubio the most but more in the way of establishment donors than votes since Bush didn't have a ton of votes.
3. Cruz needs to get out ASAP. Trump will be the nominee if this remains a three way race but once Cruz drops there are more of his supporters who consider Rubio their #2 than Trump. If they're like me they view Rubio as conservative and kind of a Bush lite. Trump is better on immigration but can't be considered a trustworthy conservative since he's only been talking like a conservative for 10 minutes. Trump is more likely to be Hillary Clinton lite. Cruz won't go quietly. He's got too much invested and too much money and support left. However, the money and support will dry up quickly if he can't win the SEC primaries.
4. Clinton is still the odds on favorite to win the democrat nomination. She has too much party support (superdelegate and primary rules in her favor).
5. Real Clear Politics head to head averages:
Vs Clinton:
Trump down - 2.8
Rubio up +4.7
vs Sanders:
Trump down -7.8
Rubio tied
