https://theathletic.com/1140581/201...-bill-self-team-heres-how-the-jayhawks-do-it/
beginning of article below:
In late December 2016, Marshall coach Dan D’Antoni went on a rant about 3-pointers and post-ups that has become a favorite among the pro-analytics community.
“You can go to any computer and run what the best shots are,” D’Antoni said, “and it will tell you the post-up is the worst shot in basketball.”
The expected value on a post-up with a defender standing over the top of you, D’Antoni argued, is 0.78 points. You can imagine the numbers’ guys with their pitchforks chanting: Death to the post-up!
According to statistics run from last season by Jordan Sperber, using Synergy data, a post-up player who faced up and attacked from that position scored exactly 0.78 points per possession. A post-up player who tried to score over either shoulder fared slightly better: 0.9 points per possession.
D’Antoni’s rant was mostly on the mark and 3-point rates across college basketball have steadily increased for good reason, but he overlooked one result of the post-up that he, as a lover of analytics, should be trying to implement: the post pin.
The post pin is created by a post player sealing his defender and the pass leads directly to a layup or dunk. The post pin, Sperber found, accounted for only 10 percent of post-ups last season yet generated 1.21 points per possession. That’s equal to the expected value of a 3-point shooter who knocks down 40.3 percent of his 3s, which was more efficient than all but one offense in college basketball last season.
This brings us to Kansas and Bill Self.
Sperber wrote about Self’s ability to generate these opportunities through the actions he runs. Sperber did so because Self is seen as one of the best at teaching his big men how to seal and then designing offense that creates post pins.
But until I started digging through years of data and then Sperber did the same, we did not realize the level of Self’s genius. It’s absurd.
Since the 2007-08 season, which is when Synergy really started breaking down nearly every college game and possession, the Jayhawks have not only been the best at this, but they have also just about lapped the field.
beginning of article below:
In late December 2016, Marshall coach Dan D’Antoni went on a rant about 3-pointers and post-ups that has become a favorite among the pro-analytics community.
“You can go to any computer and run what the best shots are,” D’Antoni said, “and it will tell you the post-up is the worst shot in basketball.”
The expected value on a post-up with a defender standing over the top of you, D’Antoni argued, is 0.78 points. You can imagine the numbers’ guys with their pitchforks chanting: Death to the post-up!
According to statistics run from last season by Jordan Sperber, using Synergy data, a post-up player who faced up and attacked from that position scored exactly 0.78 points per possession. A post-up player who tried to score over either shoulder fared slightly better: 0.9 points per possession.
D’Antoni’s rant was mostly on the mark and 3-point rates across college basketball have steadily increased for good reason, but he overlooked one result of the post-up that he, as a lover of analytics, should be trying to implement: the post pin.
The post pin is created by a post player sealing his defender and the pass leads directly to a layup or dunk. The post pin, Sperber found, accounted for only 10 percent of post-ups last season yet generated 1.21 points per possession. That’s equal to the expected value of a 3-point shooter who knocks down 40.3 percent of his 3s, which was more efficient than all but one offense in college basketball last season.
This brings us to Kansas and Bill Self.
Sperber wrote about Self’s ability to generate these opportunities through the actions he runs. Sperber did so because Self is seen as one of the best at teaching his big men how to seal and then designing offense that creates post pins.
But until I started digging through years of data and then Sperber did the same, we did not realize the level of Self’s genius. It’s absurd.
Since the 2007-08 season, which is when Synergy really started breaking down nearly every college game and possession, the Jayhawks have not only been the best at this, but they have also just about lapped the field.
