2023 Off PPG: 25.85 PPG
2023 Def PPG: 28.86 PPG
Key Offensive Losses
Projected 2024 Off PPG: 26.64
Returning Off Rating: 0.658
Key Offensive Returners
Projected 2024 Def PPG: 27.71
Returning Def Rating: 0.695
Key Defensive Returners
Key Transfers
Season Thoughts
UNLV had a breakout season in Barry Odom’s first season. No question about it, they far outpaced expectations. I don’t think anyone saw it coming.
Their offensive success was built on a unique, run-first scheme with a stable of 4 complementary backs, a mobile QB and a solid WR corps. The ground game was the engine that allowed their WR group to exploit coverages. Their running game wasn’t necessarily great but it was consistent. The engine that the offense was built on was completely gutted in the offseason. They lost 3 of their key 4 backs and literally their entire QB room. It’s a mystery.
As a team, they benefited greatly from extremely high turnover luck. They were a hair away from finishing the season about 4 standard deviations out. If Maiava throws 1 INT instead of 2 in the bowl game, they do finish 4 SD’s out (EPA +72.5). That’s not repeatable. It’s damned near a statistical impossibility. It doesn’t mean that it’s going to swing the other way, but it’s highly likely they return to the median. The difference between where they were at in 2023 and “normal” is about -5.178 PPG.
The way that UNLV uses backs, they should be able to replicate their production. It’s a different story at QB. Maiava made that offense work. When Maiava took over the offense from Brumfield it went from averaging 311 YPG to 429 YPG. They’re hoping that Sluka can replicate it but I’m not so sure. It’s hard to go from Holy Cross to FBS. The speed of the game is different. They brought in two more transfer QB’s hoping to piece something together.
Their defense was nothing special. Prone to getting turnovers, but outside of that pretty average. They lose 11 of the 15 DB’s that played a year ago which is a significant drain in the background 7. They return most of their DL and LB group, but without the coverage experience it will be hard for them to be as consistent.
I don’t think they’re going to be a bad team, but I don’t think they’re going to replicate what they did a year ago either. There were just too many personnel losses and they were too reliant on turnover luck to be consistent YOY.
2023 Def PPG: 28.86 PPG
Key Offensive Losses
- QB Jayden Maiava (Transfer)
- RB Vincent Davis (Graduation)
- RB Donavyn Lester (Graduation)
- RB Courtney Reese (Graduation)
- S Jaxen Turner (Graduation)
- LB Fred Thompkins (Graduation)
- CB Jerrae Williams (Transfer)
- CB Ricky Johnson (Transfer)
Projected 2024 Off PPG: 26.64
Returning Off Rating: 0.658
Key Offensive Returners
- RB Jai’den Thomas (503 rushing yards, 12 TD’s, 62 receiving yards
- WR Ricky White (1483 receiving yards, 8 TD’s)
- WR Jacob De Jesus (606 receiving yards, 2 TD’s, 46 rushing yards, 1 TD, 822 KOR yards, 257 PR yards)
- TE Kaleo Ballungay (314 yards receiving, 2 TD’s)
- OG Jalen St. John (13 career starts)
- RT Tiger Shanks (23 career starts)
Projected 2024 Def PPG: 27.71
Returning Def Rating: 0.695
Key Defensive Returners
- LB Jackson Woodard (116 Tackles, 9 TFL’s, 2.5 sacks, 1 INT, 4 PBU’s)
- DE Jalen Dixon (29 tackles, 6 TFL’s, 1.5 sacks, 1 FF)
- S Jonathan Baldwin (77 tackles, 4 TFL’s, 1 sack, 2 INT’s, 5 PBU’s)
- LB Marsel McDuffie (89 tackles, 2.5 TFL’s, 1 sack, 2 PBU’s, 1 FF)
- CB Cameron Oliver (53 Tacjles, 4.5 TFL’s, 2 sacks, 5 INT’s, 5 PBU’s, and 2 FF)
Key Transfers
- QB Matthew Sluka (2023: 1728 yards passing, 20 TD, 4:1 TD to INt ratio, 1247 rushing yards, 9 rushing TD’s)
- RB Michael Allen (251 yards rushing, 1 rushing TD, 97 yards receiving, 1 receiving TD)
- RB Kylin James (425 yards rushing, 5 TD’s, 500 yards receiving, 4 TD’s)
- S Jalen Catalon (17 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 FF)
Season Thoughts
UNLV had a breakout season in Barry Odom’s first season. No question about it, they far outpaced expectations. I don’t think anyone saw it coming.
Their offensive success was built on a unique, run-first scheme with a stable of 4 complementary backs, a mobile QB and a solid WR corps. The ground game was the engine that allowed their WR group to exploit coverages. Their running game wasn’t necessarily great but it was consistent. The engine that the offense was built on was completely gutted in the offseason. They lost 3 of their key 4 backs and literally their entire QB room. It’s a mystery.
As a team, they benefited greatly from extremely high turnover luck. They were a hair away from finishing the season about 4 standard deviations out. If Maiava throws 1 INT instead of 2 in the bowl game, they do finish 4 SD’s out (EPA +72.5). That’s not repeatable. It’s damned near a statistical impossibility. It doesn’t mean that it’s going to swing the other way, but it’s highly likely they return to the median. The difference between where they were at in 2023 and “normal” is about -5.178 PPG.
The way that UNLV uses backs, they should be able to replicate their production. It’s a different story at QB. Maiava made that offense work. When Maiava took over the offense from Brumfield it went from averaging 311 YPG to 429 YPG. They’re hoping that Sluka can replicate it but I’m not so sure. It’s hard to go from Holy Cross to FBS. The speed of the game is different. They brought in two more transfer QB’s hoping to piece something together.
Their defense was nothing special. Prone to getting turnovers, but outside of that pretty average. They lose 11 of the 15 DB’s that played a year ago which is a significant drain in the background 7. They return most of their DL and LB group, but without the coverage experience it will be hard for them to be as consistent.
I don’t think they’re going to be a bad team, but I don’t think they’re going to replicate what they did a year ago either. There were just too many personnel losses and they were too reliant on turnover luck to be consistent YOY.
