*Official non-political Ukraine Thread *

[jolebo]

Something to watch for this week.

Russia may close airspace over Kapustin Yar, site of Oreshnik ballistic missile launch, on May 12-13

A notice about the airspace closure was published on the U.S. Defense Department's NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) website on May 10, as cited by Ukrainian defense news outlet Militarnyi.

kyivindependent.com

Militarnyi noted that a similar flight ban was in place from 4 a.m. to 8 p.m. between Nov. 21 and 23, 2024, ahead of the first Russian strike with an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile strike on Ukraine.

Russia regularly uses close, and short-range ballistic missiles in aerial attacks against Ukraine, but intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) are far larger, can be equipped with nuclear payloads, and are designed to hit targets at far longer ranges.

 

[jolebo]

I got interested in seeing coverage of the parade.

 

[jolebo]

Let's see how this is handled.

Putin rejects ceasefire, calls on Ukraine to begin direct talks in Istanbul next week as Victory Day 'truce' ends

"Russia is ready for negotiations without any preconditions," Putin claimed in an address marking the end of the three-day Victory Day ceasefire. He invited Ukraine to begin talks in Istanbul on May 15.

kyivindependent.com

Putin notably did not announce an extension of the three-day truce or agree to Ukraine and Europe's proposal for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire. Such an agreement could be negotiated during the Istanbul talks, he said.

Putin unilaterally declared a temporary ceasefire in honor of Victory Day — which Russia observes on May 9 — from midnight May 8 until midnight on May 11. Despite the three-day truce, Russian attacks against Ukrainian civilians and combat operations on the front line continued.

During his remarks, Putin accused Ukraine of escalating attacks against Russia in the days leading up to the Victory Day "truce" and of violating the three-day ceasefire multiple times, including by launching five cross-border incursions into Kursk and Belgorod oblasts.

These incursions held "no military significance," he claimed.

 

[jolebo]

 

[TeamRamRod1]

Hungary sucking putin's dick too

Ukraine arrests spies working for NATO's Hungary

Tensions exist between Ukraine and Hungary, whose leader Viktor Orbán is sympathetic to Russia and skeptical of Western intervention in the Ukraine war.

www.newsweek.com

 

[jeffrospn]

Hungary sucking putin's dick too

Ukraine arrests spies working for NATO's Hungary

Tensions exist between Ukraine and Hungary, whose leader Viktor Orbán is sympathetic to Russia and skeptical of Western intervention in the Ukraine war.

www.newsweek.com

That's Viktor Orban for you.

 

[JhawkFitness]

Seems like they’re trying to make it easy for him to save face by saying he will extend the current 3 day ceasefire for an indefinite time. Doubt he will take that lifeline but who knows.

 

[lex parsimoniae]

So surprising that Russia isn't interested in actually ending this.
Where's @1Jhorse to defend this?

 

[jolebo]

'Have the meeting, now!' — Trump urges Ukraine, Russia to hold direct talks

"(Russian) President (Vladimir) Putin... doesn't want to have a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, but rather wants to meet on Thursday, in Turkey, to negotiate a possible end to the bloodbath. Ukraine should agree to this, immediately," U.S. President Donald Trump said.

kyivindependent.com

Europe has proposed increasing sanctions pressure on Russia in response to the Kremlin's resistance to U.S.-brokered ceasefire efforts. Putin has rejected an immediate ceasefire and instead suggested direct peace talks be held in Istanbul beginning May 15.

"At least they will be able to determine whether or not a deal is possible, and if it is not, European leaders, and the U.S., will know where everything stands, and can proceed accordingly!" Trump said.

"I'm starting to doubt that Ukraine will make a deal with Putin, who's too busy celebrating the Victory of World War II ... Have the meeting, now!"

Trump Urges Ukraine to Accept Talks With Russia - The Moscow Times

U.S.

www.themoscowtimes.com

Ukraine said earlier it was ready to take part in the meeting, but only once Russian President Vladimir Putin accepted a 30-day ceasefire proposed by Kyiv and its allies.

Moscow and Kyiv have not held direct negotiations since March 2022, shortly after the Kremlin launched its full-scale invasion in February of that year.[...]

Zelensky wrote on X later: “We await a full and lasting ceasefire, starting from tomorrow, to provide the necessary basis for diplomacy.”

“There is no point in prolonging the killings. And I will be waiting for Putin in [Turkey] on Thursday. Personally. I hope that this time the Russians will not look for excuses.”

 

[jolebo]

So surprising that Russia isn't interested in actually ending this.

It's equally interesting that Russia wants Ukraine to become weaker and more dependent, according to the 2022 proposal.

Yet the following is happening.



This just doesn't add up on so many levels.

 

[jolebo]

And if this is 100% factual, Pres. Trump needs to drop Witkoff and send Rubio for any future face-to-face conversations, if they happen.

Witkoff's negotiation approach with Putin sparks concern in White House, NYP reports

According to New York Post sources, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff has even used Kremlin translators during discussions with Putin — a breach of standard U.S. diplomatic practice.

kyivindependent.com

Witkoff, who has emerged as Trump's de facto personal envoy to Russian President Vladimir Putin and concurrently handles Middle East affairs, has participated in solo meetings with foreign leaders, bypassing typical diplomatic protocol, according to the report.[...]

Ahead of his April 25 meeting with Putin, Witkoff greeted the Russian president informally and without the customary entourage of advisers, military officials, or experts that typically accompany senior U.S. negotiators.

In contrast, Putin was joined by his aide Yuri Ushakov and Russian Direct Investment Fund head Kirill Dmitriev.

Witkoff's posture has alarmed officials because he frequently echoes Putin's narratives while reportedly lacking a clear understanding of Ukraine's position. The role of special envoy for Ukraine remains assigned to Keith Kellogg.

 

[jolebo]

Let's see how this evolves.

 

[jolebo]

For the first time the UK military has revealed details of a ground-breaking air defence system supplied to Ukraine.

The military call it a ‘FrankenSAM’ – an innovative mix of existing military tech, meshed together into a highly effective air defence system that has been in use in Ukraine for the past two years.

Raven, as it is officially called, is based around a Supercat HMT 600 all-terrain vehicle – the same platform used for the British Army’s Coyote.

On the back engineers mounted a missile launcher, fitted with rails taken from retired RAF Tornado, Hawk and Jaguar jets

 

[jolebo]

Let's see how this is handled.

Putin rejects ceasefire, calls on Ukraine to begin direct talks in Istanbul next week as Victory Day 'truce' ends

"Russia is ready for negotiations without any preconditions," Putin claimed in an address marking the end of the three-day Victory Day ceasefire. He invited Ukraine to begin talks in Istanbul on May 15.

kyivindependent.com

Putin notably did not announce an extension of the three-day truce or agree to Ukraine and Europe's proposal for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire. Such an agreement could be negotiated during the Istanbul talks, he said.

Putin unilaterally declared a temporary ceasefire in honor of Victory Day — which Russia observes on May 9 — from midnight May 8 until midnight on May 11. Despite the three-day truce, Russian attacks against Ukrainian civilians and combat operations on the front line continued.

During his remarks, Putin accused Ukraine of escalating attacks against Russia in the days leading up to the Victory Day "truce" and of violating the three-day ceasefire multiple times, including by launching five cross-border incursions into Kursk and Belgorod oblasts.

These incursions held "no military significance," he claimed.

Thursday is about to become must see TV

'Not what Putin was expecting' — What we know (and don't know) about Ukraine, Russia peace talks in Istanbul

Russian President Vladimir Putin may have gotten more than he bargained for when, on May 11, he rejected calls for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire and invited Ukraine to engage in direct talks in Istanbul later this week. In what may have been a surprise for the Russian leader, Ukrainian...

kyivindependent.com

In what may have been a surprise for the Russian leader, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded by accepting the invitation, saying he was ready to meet Putin in Turkey on May 15.

"This is not what Putin was expecting," Oleksandr Merezhko, a Ukrainian lawmaker and chair of the parliament's foreign affairs committee, told the Kyiv Independent.

"This is an incredible move that turns the tables completely — Putin thought that he would send a Russian delegation, and create the illusion of negotiations," he said, adding: "But now, because of this move by Zelensky, he is faced with a dilemma which cannot be solved."[...]

While Zelensky has clearly stated his intention to travel to Istanbul — seemingly walking back on the demand for a full ceasefire to be implemented before negotiations can begin — Putin has not, and now faces what Merezhko referred to as a "dilemma."

"If he doesn't come, it will be obvious even to (U.S. President Donald) Trump, that Putin is not a person with whom he can negotiate, that he is incapable of negotiations," Merezhko said.

But if he does travel to Istanbul, "then again, he loses," Merezhko said.

Putin does not see himself as Zelensky's equal, and has repeatedly mocked him and called him "illegitimate," so to appear on the same level on the global stage would, in Russian eyes, make him look "really weak," Merezhko.

 

[jolebo]

 

[TeamRamRod1]

Follow up to an earlier Jolebo post. Sounds like trump is going to abandon Ukraine.

Trump 'issued an ultimatum' to Ukraine, Russia to advance peace talks or face US exit, Witkoff says

According to Steve Witkoff, the key topics in the peace discussions are the fate of the five partially or fully occupied Ukrainian regions, the status of the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, and Ukraine's access to the Dnipro River and the Black Sea.

kyivindependent.com

 

[jolebo]

The Ukrainians are evolving their drones; they are having too much fun. I can say that as someone who has indirectly used a similar technique as a child with bottle rockets.

And yes, there are attached videos in the article.

‘Exclusive Death’: Ukraine Unleashes Grenade-Firing Drone in Combat

The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have unveiled the first recorded combat use of a drone equipped with a grenade launcher, according to Wild Hornets [Dyki Shershni], a Ukrainian mil-tech company that develops and produces combat drones.[...]

A Ukrainian reconnaissance drone operator with the Unmanned Systems Forces, call sign Diego Rodriguez, told Kyiv Post: [...]
a grenade launcher delivers faster and more precise hits compared to first-person-view (FPV) drones.

“Logically, a drone like this can fly in, fire, turn around, and reload. It’s already effective. A grenade launcher round flies faster than any FPV drone, so the accuracy is higher. You can strike from farther away and face fewer electronic warfare countermeasures.”

He also said there’s a key tactical difference: kamikaze drones are loud and visible, giving Russian troops time to react.

“But a grenade round arrives almost instantly – you can’t dodge it. That means more accurate hits.”

“I don’t understand why this wasn’t done earlier – and why it isn’t being used on a mass scale already. It absolutely should be.”

 

[jolebo]

Will Putin meet Zelensky? As Ukraine, Russia peace talks loom, all eyes are on Kremlin's next move

With just a day to go before Russian-proposed peace talks might begin in Istanbul, the Kremlin is still refusing to confirm whether or not President Vladimir Putin will attend the event. President Volodymyr Zelensky has already said he will meet Putin there, a move that puts the ball very much...

kyivindependent.com

Ukraine has made very clear that Zelensky will be in Istanbul on May 15, and that he will only talk to Putin, with presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak explaining that talks with lower-level representatives would be pointless.

"Only Putin can make a decision to continue the war or stop the war," Podolyak said on May 15.

The Kremlin has so far only said a Russian delegation will be present.It has yet to say whether or not Putin will attend in person, and to do so would not be in the Russian president's interests.


With tomorrow being the "big day," the following has to be Zelensky's theme song, along with others.

Spoiler: Such an easy choice on multiple levels

 

[JhawkFitness]

Follow up to an earlier Jolebo post. Sounds like trump is going to abandon Ukraine.

Trump 'issued an ultimatum' to Ukraine, Russia to advance peace talks or face US exit, Witkoff says

According to Steve Witkoff, the key topics in the peace discussions are the fate of the five partially or fully occupied Ukrainian regions, the status of the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, and Ukraine's access to the Dnipro River and the Black Sea.

kyivindependent.com

So much for the deal signed recently huh?

 

[JhawkFitness]

The Ukrainians are evolving their drones; they are having too much fun. I can say that as someone who has indirectly used a similar technique as a child with bottle rockets.

And yes, there are attached videos in the article.

‘Exclusive Death’: Ukraine Unleashes Grenade-Firing Drone in Combat

The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have unveiled the first recorded combat use of a drone equipped with a grenade launcher, according to Wild Hornets [Dyki Shershni], a Ukrainian mil-tech company that develops and produces combat drones.[...]

A Ukrainian reconnaissance drone operator with the Unmanned Systems Forces, call sign Diego Rodriguez, told Kyiv Post: [...]
a grenade launcher delivers faster and more precise hits compared to first-person-view (FPV) drones.

“Logically, a drone like this can fly in, fire, turn around, and reload. It’s already effective. A grenade launcher round flies faster than any FPV drone, so the accuracy is higher. You can strike from farther away and face fewer electronic warfare countermeasures.”

He also said there’s a key tactical difference: kamikaze drones are loud and visible, giving Russian troops time to react.

“But a grenade round arrives almost instantly – you can’t dodge it. That means more accurate hits.”

“I don’t understand why this wasn’t done earlier – and why it isn’t being used on a mass scale already. It absolutely should be.”

Ukraine military is also hiring American gamers as drone pilots.

 

[jeffrospn]

Will Putin meet Zelensky? As Ukraine, Russia peace talks loom, all eyes are on Kremlin's next move

With just a day to go before Russian-proposed peace talks might begin in Istanbul, the Kremlin is still refusing to confirm whether or not President Vladimir Putin will attend the event. President Volodymyr Zelensky has already said he will meet Putin there, a move that puts the ball very much...

kyivindependent.com

Ukraine has made very clear that Zelensky will be in Istanbul on May 15, and that he will only talk to Putin, with presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak explaining that talks with lower-level representatives would be pointless.

"Only Putin can make a decision to continue the war or stop the war," Podolyak said on May 15.

The Kremlin has so far only said a Russian delegation will be present.It has yet to say whether or not Putin will attend in person, and to do so would not be in the Russian president's interests.


With tomorrow being the "big day," the following has to be Zelensky's theme song, along with others.

Spoiler: Such an easy choice on multiple levels

The Russian delegation will probably be a bunch of Putin's hitmen to try to take out Zelenskyy. I say that in jest, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least.

 

[Kbone]

The Russian delegation will probably be a bunch of Putin's hitmen to try to take out Zelenskyy. I say that in jest, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least.

I don't know that taking out Zelensky would work to their advantage. Making him a martyr likely doesn't get Ukraine to fold, they possibly just dig in deeper at that point. But, I am no expert on the subject, Zelensky seems like more of a morale leader than a strategic leader.

 

[jolebo]

The Russian delegation will probably be a bunch of Putin's hitmen to try to take out Zelenskyy. I say that in jest, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least.

I don't remember the article but I want to say that I saw that Sergey Lavrov and another higher up will part of the delegation.

 

[jolebo]

The Russian delegation will probably be a bunch of Putin's hitmen to try to take out Zelenskyy. I say that in jest, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least.

Kremlin Unveils Delegation for Ukraine Peace Talks — Putin Not on the List

Vladimir Medinsky heads Russia's delegation for the May 15 negotiations with Ukraine, as President Putin opts not to attend the Istanbul talks.

united24media.com

Presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, who led previous rounds of failed negotiations with Ukraine in early 2022, was named head of the Russian delegation. He will be joined by Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin and Igor Kostyukov, the head of Russia’s military intelligence agency (GRU).

The order also names a group of expert advisers, including senior officials from the Foreign and Defense Ministries and the presidential administration.

 

[jeffrospn]

Kremlin Unveils Delegation for Ukraine Peace Talks — Putin Not on the List

Vladimir Medinsky heads Russia's delegation for the May 15 negotiations with Ukraine, as President Putin opts not to attend the Istanbul talks.

united24media.com

Presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, who led previous rounds of failed negotiations with Ukraine in early 2022, was named head of the Russian delegation. He will be joined by Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin and Igor Kostyukov, the head of Russia’s military intelligence agency (GRU).

The order also names a group of expert advisers, including senior officials from the Foreign and Defense Ministries and the presidential administration.

Waste of time, then.

 

[EriehawkCO]

 

[jolebo]

Here's a situation that has not been mentioned yet on here.



The EU and NATO have a problem: three of their Baltic member states Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have better rail connections with Russia than the rest of Europe. In the event of a military conflict with Moscow, this could become a critical chokepoint for troops. At a cost of $27 billion, the new 540 mile-long Rail Baltica aims to tackle NATO’s security fears head on.

WSJ explores the new high speed rail line and the funding challenges and construction delays that risk derailing the critical project.

 

[jolebo]

Plenty more in this article than what is posted below.

Behind the Diplomatic Curtain: Why Putin Refused to Meet Zelensky in Istanbul - The Moscow Times

President Vladimir Putin never planned to accept Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky’s offer to meet one-on-one in Istanbul, sources in the Russian government and the Foreign Ministry and people close to the Kremlin have told The Moscow Times. The fact that the Kremlin kept Putin’s travel...

www.themoscowtimes.com

Although sources said Putin does not see Zelensky as his equal and will only agree to meet him in the event of his "public capitulation,” he could not refuse the challenge outright because of U.S. President Donald Trump’s calls for the Russian leader to engage with his opponent.[...]

This silence was a deliberate tactic designed to keep Kyiv and its allies on edge and allow for a last-minute change of plans, former Russian diplomat Boris Bondarev told The Moscow Times.

Russian diplomacy largely follows the same protocols it did in the Soviet era, with all high-level talks meticulously prepared in advance. [...]

Moreover, Moscow does not recognize Zelensky as a legitimate negotiating partner.

Russian propaganda and Putin himself have declared Zelensky to be illegitimate, meaning Moscow can only sign a peace deal with a new Ukrainian president or with the leadership of Ukraine’s parliament.[...]

What does Putin really want?

Putin’s primary goal is to convince Trump that Russia is genuinely interested in peace, which is why he proposed sending a delegation to Istanbul and resuming talks from where they left off in 2022, explained Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.

“The Kremlin is trying to get Trump either to broker a favorable deal for Moscow or to conclude that peace is unattainable and blame Kyiv and its European allies. That way, the war in Ukraine would no longer be a U.S. priority. It would just be another file in Washington’s relationship with Moscow,” Gabuev said.[...]

What may ultimately sink any chance of U.S.-Russia rapprochement, former diplomat Bondarev said, is the deeper structural conflict between the two nations as world powers.

“More specifically, the natural confrontation between Putin’s regime and America’s global interests. Putin sees this clearly, even if U.S. rhetoric tries to ignore it,” Bondarev said. “So what kind of rapprochement can we even talk about? The only acceptable outcome for Putin is Trump’s capitulation and America’s retreat into a regional power.”

 

[EriehawkCO]

This is alarming.

 

[JhawkFitness]

NATO is the guy on top here

 

[jolebo]

BREAKING: Ukraine, Russia start peace talks in Turkey for first time since 2022

The meeting marks the first direct negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow since 2022.

kyivindependent.com

Russia presented the meeting as a continuation of the 2022 talks and stressed the need to address what it says are the war's "root causes." Moscow claims that Ukraine's NATO aspirations, as well as its language and minority laws, as the reasons behind its full-scale invasion of the country.

In turn, Kyiv and its allies have urged Moscow to adopt an unconditional ceasefire starting May 12 as the first step toward peace talks — a proposal Russia has rejected.

 

[jolebo]

How much difference, in total numbers, would this picture be, if it included Putin and Zelensky?

Russia and Ukraine Resume Direct Talks for First Time Since 2022 - The Moscow Times

The first direct talks between Russia and Ukraine since early 2022 began in Istanbul Friday afternoon, state media reported, though expectations are low amid last-minute scheduling confusion and mutual accusations of bad faith going into the negotiations.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[JhawkFitness]

How much difference, in total numbers, would this picture be, if it included Putin and Zelensky?

Russia and Ukraine Resume Direct Talks for First Time Since 2022 - The Moscow Times

The first direct talks between Russia and Ukraine since early 2022 began in Istanbul Friday afternoon, state media reported, though expectations are low amid last-minute scheduling confusion and mutual accusations of bad faith going into the negotiations.

www.themoscowtimes.com

Wasn’t the proposal for them to meet one on one?

 

[EriehawkCO]