Tl;dr: Advantage shifts to Kansas defense on 3rd and medium/long. KU just needs to get to this down and distance (which I'll say is anything 3rd and 6 and beyond).
Reasons:
The Numbers:
It’s really just football common sense, but it applies especially to this Coastal Carolina offense and specifically their quarterback.
Force obvious passing distances on third down.
I don’t care how it’s accomplished. If after a 4 yard run by McCall on 1st, we benefit from a holding call on second down. Then give up a slant for 8 yards on repeat second down. 3rd and 8, even 3rd and 6, anything equal to or better than that for our defense is critical tomorrow night.
I borrowed this from staturdays.com. The average third down distance to go was 5.35 yards in the 2020 season.
Take a look how teams performed by distance in 2020:
Point being, all third downs are not created equal, to borrow the phrase from staturdays. Coastal’s offense is simply a Swiss Army knife when you’re looking at anything inside 3rd and 5. The element of the run/pass spread option is in play in that down and distance and it puts the linebackers in an awfully rough predicament having to defend pass, QB run, or option game. Here’s a drive-by-drive breakdown of third downs from last year’s loss. Green/Red used for Good/Bad 3rd down situation and Good/Bad 3rd down result.
CCU Touchdown Drive 1:
3rd and 2 – 3 yard run for first down.
3rd and 1 – 11 yard run for first down.
CCU Touchdown Drive 2:
3rd and 1 – 2 yard run for first down
CCU Touchdown Drive 3:
3rd and 6 – Kansas jumped offsides, resulting in 3rd and 1
3rd and 1 – 2 yard run for first down
CCU Punt Drive 4:
3rd and 2 – 1 yard run
CCU Touchdown Drive 4:
3rd and 3 – 4 yard run
CCU Punt Drive 5:
3rd and 2 – 1 yard run. Converted on 4th.
3rd and 10 – Grayson McCall shovel pass nearly a pick-six for Kyle Mayberry. Coastal was flagged for holding on the play as well.
CCU Punt Drive 6:
3rd and 5 – Incomplete pass
CCU Touchdown Drive 7:
3rd and 1 – 17 yard QB run
3rd and goal at the 2 – 2 yard QB TD Run
CCU Punt Drive 8:
3rd and 7 – Pass complete but for loss of 3
CCU Field Goal Drive 9:
3rd and 1 – 2 yard run
3rd and goal at 2 – holding on CCU
3rd and goal at 12 – 2 yard run
Kansas actually held Coastal down well on any distance 5 yards or greater. Those were as follows:
Reasons:
- KU edge rushers are strength of defense (Kyron Johnson) and secondary can hold up when they have one major assignment - pass coverage.
- Linebackers less compromised in obvious passing situations. Might still need one to spy McCall.
- Coastal offense and QB are lethal in 3rd and medium/short.
The Numbers:
It’s really just football common sense, but it applies especially to this Coastal Carolina offense and specifically their quarterback.
Force obvious passing distances on third down.
I don’t care how it’s accomplished. If after a 4 yard run by McCall on 1st, we benefit from a holding call on second down. Then give up a slant for 8 yards on repeat second down. 3rd and 8, even 3rd and 6, anything equal to or better than that for our defense is critical tomorrow night.
I borrowed this from staturdays.com. The average third down distance to go was 5.35 yards in the 2020 season.
Take a look how teams performed by distance in 2020:
- Bucket 1&2 YTG – 67%
- Bucket 3&4 YTG – 51.9%
- Bucket 5&6 YTG – 42.5%
- Bucket 7&8 YTG – 35.7%
- Bucket 9&10 YTG – 31.4%
Point being, all third downs are not created equal, to borrow the phrase from staturdays. Coastal’s offense is simply a Swiss Army knife when you’re looking at anything inside 3rd and 5. The element of the run/pass spread option is in play in that down and distance and it puts the linebackers in an awfully rough predicament having to defend pass, QB run, or option game. Here’s a drive-by-drive breakdown of third downs from last year’s loss. Green/Red used for Good/Bad 3rd down situation and Good/Bad 3rd down result.
CCU Touchdown Drive 1:
3rd and 2 – 3 yard run for first down.
3rd and 1 – 11 yard run for first down.
CCU Touchdown Drive 2:
3rd and 1 – 2 yard run for first down
CCU Touchdown Drive 3:
3rd and 6 – Kansas jumped offsides, resulting in 3rd and 1
3rd and 1 – 2 yard run for first down
CCU Punt Drive 4:
3rd and 2 – 1 yard run
CCU Touchdown Drive 4:
3rd and 3 – 4 yard run
CCU Punt Drive 5:
3rd and 2 – 1 yard run. Converted on 4th.
3rd and 10 – Grayson McCall shovel pass nearly a pick-six for Kyle Mayberry. Coastal was flagged for holding on the play as well.
CCU Punt Drive 6:
3rd and 5 – Incomplete pass
CCU Touchdown Drive 7:
3rd and 1 – 17 yard QB run
3rd and goal at the 2 – 2 yard QB TD Run
CCU Punt Drive 8:
3rd and 7 – Pass complete but for loss of 3
CCU Field Goal Drive 9:
3rd and 1 – 2 yard run
3rd and goal at 2 – holding on CCU
3rd and goal at 12 – 2 yard run
Kansas actually held Coastal down well on any distance 5 yards or greater. Those were as follows:
- 3rd and 10 – a near pick six
- 3rd and 5 – an incomplete pass
- 3rd and 7 – completed pass for a loss of 3
- 3rd and 12 – 2 yard run
