This is the second set of data I’m posting that compare the offense under Grimes to Kotelnicki. This time we will be looking at explosive plays.
Previous Data
Grimes/Kotelnicki: Intermediate Passing
If you go looking for data on explosive plays, you will see a lot of different definitions, depending on the person or group that’s compiled the data. I’ve seen only 20+ yard plays, 10+ rushing/15+ passing, 25+ yard plays only, etc. It’s something that’s in the eye of the beholder.
The definition I’ve used is any offensive player of greater than 10 yards, regardless of whether it was a rush or a pass. I’ve set up this threshold for 3 key reasons:
1) when you consider that the average drive starts 68 yards from the end zone, a 10+ yard game represents almost 15% of the total yardage needed to score a touchdown which I would consider a chunk play.
2) a 10+ yard gain results in a new set of downs 96.5% of the time. New downs keep drives going.
3) it’s a whole lot easier to track the data and at the end of the day, does the offense really care if it had a 10 yard run vs a 10 yard pass or do they just care about a 10 yard play?
Explosives/drive is a measure of the number of explosive plays that occur on a given drive. Explosive rate is a measure of explosive plays on a per play level.
The per drive data looks relatively comparable but there’s a 10% difference on explosive rate. I know someone is looking at that data and going “well it’s pretty close” but thats a pretty decent variance all things considered. The impact is probably only understood if you dig deeper.
I think the explosive rate on the passing can be at least partially explained by the intermediate passing bands. The rushing rate is a bit of a mystery…somehow with a senior, healthy Devin Neal and probably the most complete offensive line we’ve had under Leipold we were LESS explosive in the run game? So I carried out the data and the difference is 2.73 explosive rushes for the season. So that looks like a big deal but in the grand scheme doesn’t have a ton of meaning.
Breaking it down that way showed something more concrete. Across the board, the Kotelnicki offense was gaining more yardage and we explosive play than the Grimes offense, AND they were hitting those explosive plays at a higher rate.
I’m still trying to tease out the specific “why” but there’s no question that it was different.
For additional perspective, in 2023 and 2022, KU finished with an explosion rate ranked in the top 10. Just as an FYI, the only other schools to do that were Ole Miss, Georgia, and USC. In 2024, KU finished 23rd. It’s respectable, but not quite where it was. Also as an FYI, Penn St. under Kotelnicki finished 8th after finishing below 70th each of the previous 2 seasons.
What did it mean for KU specifically? Under Grimes, the offense averaged 282.167 yards/game from explosive plays. Under Kotelnicki the offense averaged 327.769 yards/game from explosive plays. Even though Kotelnicki’s team’s only averaged 1 more explosive plays per game, the cumulative per play impact resulted in a 45.603 (16%) more yards/game from explosive plays.
Previous Data
Grimes/Kotelnicki: Intermediate Passing
If you go looking for data on explosive plays, you will see a lot of different definitions, depending on the person or group that’s compiled the data. I’ve seen only 20+ yard plays, 10+ rushing/15+ passing, 25+ yard plays only, etc. It’s something that’s in the eye of the beholder.
The definition I’ve used is any offensive player of greater than 10 yards, regardless of whether it was a rush or a pass. I’ve set up this threshold for 3 key reasons:
1) when you consider that the average drive starts 68 yards from the end zone, a 10+ yard game represents almost 15% of the total yardage needed to score a touchdown which I would consider a chunk play.
2) a 10+ yard gain results in a new set of downs 96.5% of the time. New downs keep drives going.
3) it’s a whole lot easier to track the data and at the end of the day, does the offense really care if it had a 10 yard run vs a 10 yard pass or do they just care about a 10 yard play?
Explosives/drive is a measure of the number of explosive plays that occur on a given drive. Explosive rate is a measure of explosive plays on a per play level.
| Exp/Drive | Exp Rate | |
| Kotelnicki | 1.463 | 0.243 |
| Grimes | 1.453 | 0.222 |
The per drive data looks relatively comparable but there’s a 10% difference on explosive rate. I know someone is looking at that data and going “well it’s pretty close” but thats a pretty decent variance all things considered. The impact is probably only understood if you dig deeper.
| Pass Exp Rate | Run Exp Rate | |
| Kotelnicki | 0.348 | 0.167 |
| Grimes | 0.314 | 0.161 |
I think the explosive rate on the passing can be at least partially explained by the intermediate passing bands. The rushing rate is a bit of a mystery…somehow with a senior, healthy Devin Neal and probably the most complete offensive line we’ve had under Leipold we were LESS explosive in the run game? So I carried out the data and the difference is 2.73 explosive rushes for the season. So that looks like a big deal but in the grand scheme doesn’t have a ton of meaning.
| Yards/Pass Exp | Yards/Rush Exp | Yards/Exp | |
| Kotelnicki | 22.932 | 19.538 | 21.575 |
| Grimes | 21.031 | 18.474 | 19.918 |
Breaking it down that way showed something more concrete. Across the board, the Kotelnicki offense was gaining more yardage and we explosive play than the Grimes offense, AND they were hitting those explosive plays at a higher rate.
I’m still trying to tease out the specific “why” but there’s no question that it was different.
For additional perspective, in 2023 and 2022, KU finished with an explosion rate ranked in the top 10. Just as an FYI, the only other schools to do that were Ole Miss, Georgia, and USC. In 2024, KU finished 23rd. It’s respectable, but not quite where it was. Also as an FYI, Penn St. under Kotelnicki finished 8th after finishing below 70th each of the previous 2 seasons.
What did it mean for KU specifically? Under Grimes, the offense averaged 282.167 yards/game from explosive plays. Under Kotelnicki the offense averaged 327.769 yards/game from explosive plays. Even though Kotelnicki’s team’s only averaged 1 more explosive plays per game, the cumulative per play impact resulted in a 45.603 (16%) more yards/game from explosive plays.
