Looking over some numbers and I think you can make an argument this isn't the worst game left on our schedule to start the kid. There is actually some supporting evidence this may be one of the better games to start him...so let's look into that....
1.) No Pressure
I think some our worried we will get destroyed and that will wreck Willis's confidence. And I think there is some truth to that in terms of him starting his first game and we get absolutely throttled. But if we go out and lose this game pretty bad, is anyone going to be surprised? We could literally lose this game 70 to nothing and I wouldn't be shocked (now I wouldn't be happy about that...). It feels like covering the spread in itself would be a pretty big moral victory. When those are the expectations going into this game, I am not sure you can argue that there is any pressure at all on Willis against Baylor...
2.) Home Field
I think if you are going to start a true freshman QB, you would prefer to do that at home instead of an away game. I would think you would prefer having him start back-to-back home games before hitting the road as well. We get Baylor and Tech back-to-back at home, which we won't have our next back-to-back home games until the end of the season.
3.) Baylor's Defense (and Tech's)
Now Baylor does have some beasts on D on the DL and in the secondary, but there are some numbers that suggest. Of the 9 teams remaining that KU has to play, Baylor is the 6th worst (98th overall) and Tech is the 9th worst (121st overall) against defending the pass. Now those stats are biased some since Baylor and Tech have played each other, particularly Baylor, but something else I find interesting is scoring defense where Baylor is ranked 79th overall (26.0 ppg) and Tech is 123rd overall (41.4 ppg). Specifically focusing on Baylor, the least amount of points scored on them so far is 17 in a game and they even gave up 31 points to Lamar. The most interesting fact to me is that most of the points scored on Baylor are during the first half - every single team they have played has scored more points on them in the first half than second half and 70% of the points scored on them happened in the first half. That would suggest mop up time against them isn't the best time to put up some points on them, of which I think more than anything throwing for some TDs and getting some yards would help Willis's confidence.
I think the important thing to remember is that this is completely different than how Cozart was handled a couple of years ago. Cozart got thrown to the wolves running an offense he had never run before being coached by a guy who had never run that offense before. While the offense will be tweaked for Willis versus what they did with Cozart, there will not be any wholesale changes like we saw before. I know many are scared we will get killed by Baylor (I am absolutely petrified of this game), but I am not sure that will impact his confidence as much as some think it might...
1.) No Pressure
I think some our worried we will get destroyed and that will wreck Willis's confidence. And I think there is some truth to that in terms of him starting his first game and we get absolutely throttled. But if we go out and lose this game pretty bad, is anyone going to be surprised? We could literally lose this game 70 to nothing and I wouldn't be shocked (now I wouldn't be happy about that...). It feels like covering the spread in itself would be a pretty big moral victory. When those are the expectations going into this game, I am not sure you can argue that there is any pressure at all on Willis against Baylor...
2.) Home Field
I think if you are going to start a true freshman QB, you would prefer to do that at home instead of an away game. I would think you would prefer having him start back-to-back home games before hitting the road as well. We get Baylor and Tech back-to-back at home, which we won't have our next back-to-back home games until the end of the season.
3.) Baylor's Defense (and Tech's)
Now Baylor does have some beasts on D on the DL and in the secondary, but there are some numbers that suggest. Of the 9 teams remaining that KU has to play, Baylor is the 6th worst (98th overall) and Tech is the 9th worst (121st overall) against defending the pass. Now those stats are biased some since Baylor and Tech have played each other, particularly Baylor, but something else I find interesting is scoring defense where Baylor is ranked 79th overall (26.0 ppg) and Tech is 123rd overall (41.4 ppg). Specifically focusing on Baylor, the least amount of points scored on them so far is 17 in a game and they even gave up 31 points to Lamar. The most interesting fact to me is that most of the points scored on Baylor are during the first half - every single team they have played has scored more points on them in the first half than second half and 70% of the points scored on them happened in the first half. That would suggest mop up time against them isn't the best time to put up some points on them, of which I think more than anything throwing for some TDs and getting some yards would help Willis's confidence.
I think the important thing to remember is that this is completely different than how Cozart was handled a couple of years ago. Cozart got thrown to the wolves running an offense he had never run before being coached by a guy who had never run that offense before. While the offense will be tweaked for Willis versus what they did with Cozart, there will not be any wholesale changes like we saw before. I know many are scared we will get killed by Baylor (I am absolutely petrified of this game), but I am not sure that will impact his confidence as much as some think it might...
