I'm as guilty as anyone when it comes to thinking the new guy is the best guy, but have had this gut feeling that Carter Stanley is a very special player. I wanted to find out if I had a bias with these thoughts, so began breaking down his game a few different ways to see if I was indeed biased or if this kid really is special.
HIGHLIGHT TAPE BREAKDOWN
I was curious about how quickly Stanley gets rid of the ball. When watching his clips, it seemed like he got rid of the ball extremely fast, but wanted to see if that was true or not. So I compared his film to Ryan Willis and Montell Cozart's senior year and found the following:
Carter Stanley
Montell Cozart
Ryan Willis
Now I timed every throw in their highlights with a hand stopwatch, so there is some error here, but this is what I found...
Carter Stanley
Average time it took to get rid of the ball: 2.00 seconds
Range: (0.91 seconds, 3.4 seconds)
% of throws less than 2 seconds: 50.0%
Number of throws: 58
Montell Cozart
Average time it took to get rid of the ball: 2.36 seconds
Range: (0.99 seconds, 5.61 seconds)
% of throws less than 2 seconds: 33.3%
Number of throws: 27
Ryan Willis
Average time it took to get rid of the ball: 2.42 seconds
Range: (1.18 seconds, 4.70 seconds)
% of throws less than 2 seconds: 35.3%
Number of throws: 34
Offensive scheme plays a big role here, so there could be some bias, but that is pretty damn fast for Stanley. Even more impressive to me is his range, where his longest throw isn't even within a second of Cozart's or Willis's, yet he has around 2 times as many throws in his clips. Again scheme plays a role here, but I also think Willis's delivery hurts him some - he takes some time setting his feet, winds up, and has a relatively slow release - he needs to shorten that up for this offense.
Now something else I looked but didn't put up there was how often they threw into double times. I ended up finding this pretty difficult to do as there is a lot of judgement call involved. For instance, there is a time Stanley throws to a guy being covered by two people but the WR was 5 yards ahead of those two people - technically that is double coverage but I don't think it was a bad idea. Anyways, both Willis and Stanley did well here where Stanley threw into roughly 1 - 3 double teams and Willis threw into roughly 0 - 2 double teams. Cozart, however, was a lot worse where he threw into 5 - 9 double teams.
STATISTICAL BREAKDOWN
Stats don't always tell the full story, but with QBs I do think that production is good. Production can be a product of scheme and can vary from state to state due to competition. Just from the state of Florida last year there was 5 QBs who ended up being ranked 4 stars or higher. Here is how their production stood up against Carter Stanley's...
Deondre Francois: 1,488 yards passing on 168 attempts, 56% completion percentage, 18 TDs to 4 INTs, 281 yards rushing on 46 carries, 2 rushing TDs
Dwayne Lawson: 2,444 yards passing on 276 attempts, 58.7% completion percentage, 21 TDs to 3 INTs, 867 yards rushing on 118 carries, 17 rushing TDs
De'Andre Johnson: 3,710 yards passing on 328 attempts, 65.5% completion percentage, 47 TDs to 9 INTs, 398 yards rushing on 90 carries, 9 rushing TDs
Torrance Gibson: 1,959 yards passing on 240 attempts, 46.7% completion percentage, 21 TDs to 3 INTs, 1,012 yards rushing on 137 attempts, 13 rushing TDs
Lamar Jackson: 999 yards passing on 98 attempts, 54.1% completion percentage, 12 TDs to 3 INTs, 664 yards rushing on 90 carries, 12 rushing TDs
Carter Stanley: 3,070 yards passing on 334 attempts, 65.9% completion percentage, 40 TDs to 7 INTs, 579 yards rushing on 128 carries, 7 rushing TDs
Now the five guys ahead of Stanley are considered the best of the best in Florida for QBs, but when it comes to stats I would say only De'Andre Johnson is ahead of him in terms of production. The rest of them, Stanley clearly did a better job passing the ball this past year.
INTANGIBLES
Now this is something that isn't as easily measurable and isn't just specific to Stanley (with an example of Ryan Willis leading his HS team to a state championship). But there are a couple of things about Stanley that I think are worth mentioning.
The first is his speed. We are talking about a kid who turned in an electronic 40 time of 4.60. That's pretty damn impressive for a QB. There is also this game:
Stanley starts out pretty bad in this game. Throws and INT or two and his team is trailing. But when the going got tough, he stepped up and carried them to a come from behind victory. Not only that, but he did it on the ground - he just took over and ran over those guys to give his team the lead. He did what it took to win the game even though he didn't start out having a great game...
Every single test I throw at Stanley he passes. Now I do think he will have to get a little bit thicker, but this kid is very very good. If Willis beats him out, and it is possible, that makes me feel pretty damn good about Willis because Stanley is one helluva QB that we were lucky to land as late as we did...
HIGHLIGHT TAPE BREAKDOWN
I was curious about how quickly Stanley gets rid of the ball. When watching his clips, it seemed like he got rid of the ball extremely fast, but wanted to see if that was true or not. So I compared his film to Ryan Willis and Montell Cozart's senior year and found the following:
Carter Stanley
Montell Cozart
Ryan Willis
Now I timed every throw in their highlights with a hand stopwatch, so there is some error here, but this is what I found...
Carter Stanley
Average time it took to get rid of the ball: 2.00 seconds
Range: (0.91 seconds, 3.4 seconds)
% of throws less than 2 seconds: 50.0%
Number of throws: 58
Montell Cozart
Average time it took to get rid of the ball: 2.36 seconds
Range: (0.99 seconds, 5.61 seconds)
% of throws less than 2 seconds: 33.3%
Number of throws: 27
Ryan Willis
Average time it took to get rid of the ball: 2.42 seconds
Range: (1.18 seconds, 4.70 seconds)
% of throws less than 2 seconds: 35.3%
Number of throws: 34
Offensive scheme plays a big role here, so there could be some bias, but that is pretty damn fast for Stanley. Even more impressive to me is his range, where his longest throw isn't even within a second of Cozart's or Willis's, yet he has around 2 times as many throws in his clips. Again scheme plays a role here, but I also think Willis's delivery hurts him some - he takes some time setting his feet, winds up, and has a relatively slow release - he needs to shorten that up for this offense.
Now something else I looked but didn't put up there was how often they threw into double times. I ended up finding this pretty difficult to do as there is a lot of judgement call involved. For instance, there is a time Stanley throws to a guy being covered by two people but the WR was 5 yards ahead of those two people - technically that is double coverage but I don't think it was a bad idea. Anyways, both Willis and Stanley did well here where Stanley threw into roughly 1 - 3 double teams and Willis threw into roughly 0 - 2 double teams. Cozart, however, was a lot worse where he threw into 5 - 9 double teams.
STATISTICAL BREAKDOWN
Stats don't always tell the full story, but with QBs I do think that production is good. Production can be a product of scheme and can vary from state to state due to competition. Just from the state of Florida last year there was 5 QBs who ended up being ranked 4 stars or higher. Here is how their production stood up against Carter Stanley's...
Deondre Francois: 1,488 yards passing on 168 attempts, 56% completion percentage, 18 TDs to 4 INTs, 281 yards rushing on 46 carries, 2 rushing TDs
Dwayne Lawson: 2,444 yards passing on 276 attempts, 58.7% completion percentage, 21 TDs to 3 INTs, 867 yards rushing on 118 carries, 17 rushing TDs
De'Andre Johnson: 3,710 yards passing on 328 attempts, 65.5% completion percentage, 47 TDs to 9 INTs, 398 yards rushing on 90 carries, 9 rushing TDs
Torrance Gibson: 1,959 yards passing on 240 attempts, 46.7% completion percentage, 21 TDs to 3 INTs, 1,012 yards rushing on 137 attempts, 13 rushing TDs
Lamar Jackson: 999 yards passing on 98 attempts, 54.1% completion percentage, 12 TDs to 3 INTs, 664 yards rushing on 90 carries, 12 rushing TDs
Carter Stanley: 3,070 yards passing on 334 attempts, 65.9% completion percentage, 40 TDs to 7 INTs, 579 yards rushing on 128 carries, 7 rushing TDs
Now the five guys ahead of Stanley are considered the best of the best in Florida for QBs, but when it comes to stats I would say only De'Andre Johnson is ahead of him in terms of production. The rest of them, Stanley clearly did a better job passing the ball this past year.
INTANGIBLES
Now this is something that isn't as easily measurable and isn't just specific to Stanley (with an example of Ryan Willis leading his HS team to a state championship). But there are a couple of things about Stanley that I think are worth mentioning.
The first is his speed. We are talking about a kid who turned in an electronic 40 time of 4.60. That's pretty damn impressive for a QB. There is also this game:
Stanley starts out pretty bad in this game. Throws and INT or two and his team is trailing. But when the going got tough, he stepped up and carried them to a come from behind victory. Not only that, but he did it on the ground - he just took over and ran over those guys to give his team the lead. He did what it took to win the game even though he didn't start out having a great game...
Every single test I throw at Stanley he passes. Now I do think he will have to get a little bit thicker, but this kid is very very good. If Willis beats him out, and it is possible, that makes me feel pretty damn good about Willis because Stanley is one helluva QB that we were lucky to land as late as we did...
