I can't even find the thread now in which I said it re: the Rona, but I said that the next round of projections from IHME for total deaths would probably increase fairly dramatically from the change in classifications by the CDC on what qualifies as a COVID death, and the number of deaths in recent days. Instead, their projection decreased by about 7,000 (to 60,308) from the model they ran on Monday. That makes no logical sense, of course, given that the highest death rates in the entire outbreak have been in the last three days (with today almost certain to join them as the highest rate days to date). That means that they project only about 25,000 deaths the rest of the pandemic nationwide, qualified by their assumptions.
Of course, their projections also assume the lowest end range of possible outcomes for the entire pandemic would be about 34,000 deaths, when we are at 36,500 already.
Anyhow, I was wrong, and wanted to own up to being wrong.
Of course, their projections also assume the lowest end range of possible outcomes for the entire pandemic would be about 34,000 deaths, when we are at 36,500 already.
Anyhow, I was wrong, and wanted to own up to being wrong.
