I know discussing something that might transpire years down the road is tough, but was talking with my uncle today whose a big politics nerd. He also happens to be a big Trump guy.
I asked him about the usuals (impeachment, what he thought about Trump and the GOP once Biden officially takes office).
Anyways, I asked him what he envisioned a 2024 GOP primary might look like with or without Trump. He didn’t even hesitate. Said if Trump isn’t removed from future consideration, he will win the nomination going away. That’s if he’s up for the fight four years from now. Thinks there will be some of these young guns getting a tad stir crazing waiting their turn. I told him I don’t think him or his family will be in consideration in 4-years. I think there will be a power struggle at the top.
Uncle thinks these four will be the main contenders IF Trump is still in play.
Trump
Pence
Cruz (if he’s not censured or expulsion)
Haley
Trumps wins by over 40% of the vote.
Now if Trump is not able to run, here’s his final four.
Pence
Don Jr (may be seeing a slew of legal trouble)
Cruz
Haley
He thinks Pence edges out the three others in a narrow highly contested race. Cruz & Don Jr end up canceling each other out and Pence wins the evangelical vote.
Lastly, if NO Trump family member is in play & Cruz political career is a goner.
Pence
Noem
Haley
Hogan
He thinks in this scenario the GOP will really push for a woman candidate to go up against Harris or potentially Warren. He really likes Noem. He also sees a real move by the establishment for Hogan. Doesn’t see him winning the nomination, but sees him playing the Kasich role in 24’. Ultimately, he thinks Pence edges out Noem for the nomination. Once again, evangelical vote carries the day.
So in two out of three scenarios he thinks Pence wins the nomination. How do others see it playing out? Will there be a left field candidate like Trump was in 16’?
I asked him about the usuals (impeachment, what he thought about Trump and the GOP once Biden officially takes office).
Anyways, I asked him what he envisioned a 2024 GOP primary might look like with or without Trump. He didn’t even hesitate. Said if Trump isn’t removed from future consideration, he will win the nomination going away. That’s if he’s up for the fight four years from now. Thinks there will be some of these young guns getting a tad stir crazing waiting their turn. I told him I don’t think him or his family will be in consideration in 4-years. I think there will be a power struggle at the top.
Uncle thinks these four will be the main contenders IF Trump is still in play.
Trump
Pence
Cruz (if he’s not censured or expulsion)
Haley
Trumps wins by over 40% of the vote.
Now if Trump is not able to run, here’s his final four.
Pence
Don Jr (may be seeing a slew of legal trouble)
Cruz
Haley
He thinks Pence edges out the three others in a narrow highly contested race. Cruz & Don Jr end up canceling each other out and Pence wins the evangelical vote.
Lastly, if NO Trump family member is in play & Cruz political career is a goner.
Pence
Noem
Haley
Hogan
He thinks in this scenario the GOP will really push for a woman candidate to go up against Harris or potentially Warren. He really likes Noem. He also sees a real move by the establishment for Hogan. Doesn’t see him winning the nomination, but sees him playing the Kasich role in 24’. Ultimately, he thinks Pence edges out Noem for the nomination. Once again, evangelical vote carries the day.
So in two out of three scenarios he thinks Pence wins the nomination. How do others see it playing out? Will there be a left field candidate like Trump was in 16’?
