2016 polls missed badly on Trump for three big reasons - Assumptions were made that past White blue collar support of D candidates would hold. It clearly didn't as that demographic went big for Trump. Another reason was an assumption suburban women would support Hillary. They didn't and many of them stayed home because they just didn't like her. Black voters were largely turned off with Hillary and many stayed home.
2018 polls. The above three groups supported the D Congressional candidates in numbers they didn't in 2016. Primarily for two reasons - healthcare and a growing distaste for Trump among females as well as Black voters.
2020 polls. The big question mark is whether the three above groups will support Biden. Two of the three - Blacks and women are strongly backing Biden in the polling to date. Blue collar whites are hard to categorize at this point.
I'm a poll junkie, so stay tuned.
2018 polls. The above three groups supported the D Congressional candidates in numbers they didn't in 2016. Primarily for two reasons - healthcare and a growing distaste for Trump among females as well as Black voters.
2020 polls. The big question mark is whether the three above groups will support Biden. Two of the three - Blacks and women are strongly backing Biden in the polling to date. Blue collar whites are hard to categorize at this point.
I'm a poll junkie, so stay tuned.
