This isn’t news but I’m a nerd when it comes to football statistics. I keep all kinds of data on a lot of different teams.
UCF sticks out like a sore thumb for a lot of different reasons. This isn’t necessarily a prediction or anything like that. Statistically they’re just…weird. It would be completely infuriating to be a UCF fan because so many of their issues are self-inflicted. Some of those are correctable this season but most are not.
UCF’s offense is binge and purge while being almost 100% dependent on consistently getting plays of greater than 20 yards. If they have a play of greater than 20 yards on a drive, they score 4.18 points/possession. If they don’t have a 20 yard play, they score 2.09 points/possession. Even when they DO get a 20+ yard play, they fail to score at all on 1/3 of those drives. They will have some big plays against KU…and probably everyone in the league…but it doesn’t mean much unless they’re getting them all game long.
Part of that is because they have very little discipline. They average 7 penalties a game at over 8.3 yards/penalty. Lots of holding, personal fouls, and formation/delay of game penalties. They also turn the ball over quite a bit. They average just shy of 2 turnovers/game and basically hit the average every game…it’s not like 1-2 games just raising the average. It’s consistent.
The numbers held pretty consistently with both QB’s so it’s not worth differentiating between the two but the numbers changed drastically when I dropped the Kent State and Nova games from the data.
I think the biggest thing that would frustrate me is that their offense and defense are not schematically built to work together. On offense, UCF wants to go fast…not quite old school Baylor fast but still really fast. They aren’t nearly as effective if they aren’t going fast. On defense they want to play straight up and rely on a zone defense and individual playmakers to get the job done. And it works. For about a half. Consistently.
Scoring at different snap rates
Drives @ <22 secs/play-3.15 pts/poss
Drives @ >/=22 secs/play-1.78 pts/poss
Like I said, they aren’t as effective if they aren’t going fast.
For the rest, it becomes a tale of 2 halves for both the offense and defense.
First Half
Snap rate
Offense-24.05 sec
Defense-26.38 sec
Plays/poss
Offense-4.76
Defense-6.50
Points/poss
Offense-2.588
Defense-1.900
On-Field Time
Offense-10.49 min
Defense-19.05 min
Their first half offensive drives are fast. Either scoring points quickly, turning the ball over quick, or punting quick. They average under 2 minutes/offensive drive.
Because their defense is trying to play straight up and relying on individual victories, they’re on the field a long time. You can do that if you’ve got significant DL depth…2-3 across the front…and can rotate at least 2 guys into the defensive backfield. They don’t have that depth. They’ve got first line talent…but they lack depth.
That creates a second half problem for their defense that they try to hide with their offense. They don’t snap it any slower, but their play calling is designed less for explosion and more to keep the chains moving. That’s not quite their game and they’re not quite as effective doing it.
Second Half
Snap rate
Offense-24.45 sec
Defense-26.56 sec
Plays/poss
Offense-7.4
Defense-8.41
Points/poss
Offense-2.067
Defense-4.250
On-Field Time
Offense-15.06 min
Defense-14.90 min
Looking at their games against Boise, KSU, and Baylor…UCF’s defense was just flat out exhausted by the time the second half rolled around. Those teams committed to grinding out first downs and staying on the field in the first half, regardless of what UCF was doing offensively. They just wore them down.
You can’t look at yards/half to really show you. The game shrinks. Their games have typically had 7-8 first half drives and 4 second half drives…both because the opponent is continuing to grind and UCF has tried to chew up time. Yards/play or yards/possession though…they blow up for UCF opponents. I’ll pull the numbers tomorrow but IIRC it went from like 4 yards/play and 35 yards/possession for their opponents to like 7 and 60.
I know people are saying that UCF imploded last week which allowed Baylor to win. Baylor had a little luck, especially with that fumble run back…but statistically speaking, it wasn’t really a complete fluke. That is just kinda who they are. KSU did more to them in the second half than Baylor did. Boise didn’t beat them, but had comparable success against them in the second half.
They will best teams if they can stack enough points up in the first half and score just enough to keep the opponent at arms bay in the second half. They will best teams that just want to try to run with them. They won’t win games against teams that are capable of stringing together first downs and keeping UCF’s defense on the field in the first half. I don’t think anyone outside of Texas or maybe OU can really stop their explosive plays but you don’t really have to in order to beat them…you just need to be steady and keep the chains moving.
UCF sticks out like a sore thumb for a lot of different reasons. This isn’t necessarily a prediction or anything like that. Statistically they’re just…weird. It would be completely infuriating to be a UCF fan because so many of their issues are self-inflicted. Some of those are correctable this season but most are not.
UCF’s offense is binge and purge while being almost 100% dependent on consistently getting plays of greater than 20 yards. If they have a play of greater than 20 yards on a drive, they score 4.18 points/possession. If they don’t have a 20 yard play, they score 2.09 points/possession. Even when they DO get a 20+ yard play, they fail to score at all on 1/3 of those drives. They will have some big plays against KU…and probably everyone in the league…but it doesn’t mean much unless they’re getting them all game long.
Part of that is because they have very little discipline. They average 7 penalties a game at over 8.3 yards/penalty. Lots of holding, personal fouls, and formation/delay of game penalties. They also turn the ball over quite a bit. They average just shy of 2 turnovers/game and basically hit the average every game…it’s not like 1-2 games just raising the average. It’s consistent.
The numbers held pretty consistently with both QB’s so it’s not worth differentiating between the two but the numbers changed drastically when I dropped the Kent State and Nova games from the data.
I think the biggest thing that would frustrate me is that their offense and defense are not schematically built to work together. On offense, UCF wants to go fast…not quite old school Baylor fast but still really fast. They aren’t nearly as effective if they aren’t going fast. On defense they want to play straight up and rely on a zone defense and individual playmakers to get the job done. And it works. For about a half. Consistently.
Scoring at different snap rates
Drives @ <22 secs/play-3.15 pts/poss
Drives @ >/=22 secs/play-1.78 pts/poss
Like I said, they aren’t as effective if they aren’t going fast.
For the rest, it becomes a tale of 2 halves for both the offense and defense.
First Half
Snap rate
Offense-24.05 sec
Defense-26.38 sec
Plays/poss
Offense-4.76
Defense-6.50
Points/poss
Offense-2.588
Defense-1.900
On-Field Time
Offense-10.49 min
Defense-19.05 min
Their first half offensive drives are fast. Either scoring points quickly, turning the ball over quick, or punting quick. They average under 2 minutes/offensive drive.
Because their defense is trying to play straight up and relying on individual victories, they’re on the field a long time. You can do that if you’ve got significant DL depth…2-3 across the front…and can rotate at least 2 guys into the defensive backfield. They don’t have that depth. They’ve got first line talent…but they lack depth.
That creates a second half problem for their defense that they try to hide with their offense. They don’t snap it any slower, but their play calling is designed less for explosion and more to keep the chains moving. That’s not quite their game and they’re not quite as effective doing it.
Second Half
Snap rate
Offense-24.45 sec
Defense-26.56 sec
Plays/poss
Offense-7.4
Defense-8.41
Points/poss
Offense-2.067
Defense-4.250
On-Field Time
Offense-15.06 min
Defense-14.90 min
Looking at their games against Boise, KSU, and Baylor…UCF’s defense was just flat out exhausted by the time the second half rolled around. Those teams committed to grinding out first downs and staying on the field in the first half, regardless of what UCF was doing offensively. They just wore them down.
You can’t look at yards/half to really show you. The game shrinks. Their games have typically had 7-8 first half drives and 4 second half drives…both because the opponent is continuing to grind and UCF has tried to chew up time. Yards/play or yards/possession though…they blow up for UCF opponents. I’ll pull the numbers tomorrow but IIRC it went from like 4 yards/play and 35 yards/possession for their opponents to like 7 and 60.
I know people are saying that UCF imploded last week which allowed Baylor to win. Baylor had a little luck, especially with that fumble run back…but statistically speaking, it wasn’t really a complete fluke. That is just kinda who they are. KSU did more to them in the second half than Baylor did. Boise didn’t beat them, but had comparable success against them in the second half.
They will best teams if they can stack enough points up in the first half and score just enough to keep the opponent at arms bay in the second half. They will best teams that just want to try to run with them. They won’t win games against teams that are capable of stringing together first downs and keeping UCF’s defense on the field in the first half. I don’t think anyone outside of Texas or maybe OU can really stop their explosive plays but you don’t really have to in order to beat them…you just need to be steady and keep the chains moving.
