I recently had a talk with a Big 12 AD (not Goff). He went over some of the upcoming issues with the Big 12. I'll try to remember everything that he said.
- He thinks that OU and Texas will leave after this year with a negotiated payment. Mainly it is ESPN that wants to get them to the SEC asap and the Big 12 is ready for them to be gone. It is weird having them in meetings and a part of decisions when they have a foot out the door already. It also makes it easier to brand the new Big 12 with new teams coming in and not having to make a patchwork schedule and plan for 1 or 2 years.
- The Big 12 will have divisions. Maybe not 100% set it stone but it will likely be setup
- KU, KSU, ISU, WVU, Cincy, UCF
- OSU, TCU, Tech, Baylor, BYU, Houston
- He doesn't think that any current teams in the Big 12 will be scooped up by the Big 10 or SEC. He said if anyone would it would be KU, but a lot of things would have to shake out as they would be down the list for either school. He said the only way it would likely happen is for the Big 10 or SEC to grab basically then entire ACC and not leave any schools for the other to select.
- He isn't dialed in on exact details as it is pretty much over his head with presidents and the conference, but he thinks that the Big 12 will sign an extension to their current contract basically just adding 1 or 2 years to it. This would give some additional time for conference realignment to play out.
- He said if he had to bet on it he thinks that Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal will go to the Big 10. It could be a year or two before that happens which is why the conference doesn't want to sign a long term deal now.
- If those 4 Pac 12 schools go to the Big 10 it kills the Pac 12. There aren't any schools that they can pick up that will be beneficial. He said that the Big 12 was smart in adding 4 schools last year to take what was the best options not currently in a P5 school which removed them from consideration from the ACC and Big 10.
- With the Pac 12 having no realistic options he thinks that the Big 12 will end up taking all remaining schools. He doesn't think that anyone wants to leave behind WSU or OSU starting with the NCAA, ESPN down. Nobody wants to have schools left out that are currently sitting at the table.
- With the Pac 12 going away he wonders if the Big 12 maintains its name, or if it is rebranded to a new conference name. He said basically it would be like when the Big 12 was created with the Big 8 and SWC.
- He doesn't think the SEC will sit around if/when the Big 10 adds the Pac 12 schools. Basically what that will do is raid the ACC. The SEC will take the schools they want and the Big 10 will take the schools they want. That will leave a handful of schools left from the ACC. He said he could see a couple things come from that situation.
- The Big 12 or new conference becomes a giant conference and takes the remaining ACC schools. It would then likely get setup into multiple divisions within the same conference. He said that one thing that he has heard that the TV execs like about that idea is that you can turn the conference championship into a 4 team playoff and get more content
- The other option is for the remaining ACC schools to come to an agreement with the Big 12, at the urging of the NCAA/ESPN to keep 4 conferences, and split some teams off of the Big 12 and piece together a conference with the remaining schools and then teams like UCF, WVU, Cincy and whatever AAC options are left. They think this is viable if Notre Dame will keep its agreement with the ACC through that time frame.
