Here's the first part of a good article from the Athletic. I really was surprised at how non-aggressive we were this past weekend on the Iowa State side of the field on 4th and short. It just really surprises me in this day and age when coaches don't go for it. The fans pretty much expect you to go for it and there's very little pushback on going for it. Biggest complaint is usually the play call, not that you went for it. But what I thought was interesting was that schools are starting to pay for a service that gives you analytics based on your team and your opponent and where you're at on the field.I don't know if anyone saw Tech against K-State on Saturday, but I really thought this was going to blow up on them. They went for it on their own 30 when they were already down 10-0. I really thought KSU was going to run away with it, but they held them to 3. Before you know it, Tech had tied the game at 13. I thought Campbell was pretty aggressive in going for against KU on some 4th and longer distances. I'd really like to see Lance be more aggressive on 4th and shorts and maybe a little further when we're in no-man's land.
Inside Texas Tech’s aggressive 4th-down approach: The game book and magic numbers
https://theathletic.com/3637203/202...ey-mcguire/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983With the score deadlocked at 31, 2:15 left and the ball at midfield, Texas Tech faced a critical fourth-and-3 late in its upset bid of Texas last Saturday.
“Most coaches would kick it here,” ESPN analyst Rod Gilmore said on the broadcast.
It’s true. Conventional wisdom has long been to minimize risk, especially in a precarious late-game situation like this. A turnover on downs would’ve given the Longhorns the ball with a chance to bleed the clock and potentially set up a game-winning field goal. Punting is often the default.
Instead, Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire went for it. Quarterback Donovan Smith dropped back, faced interior pressure, backpedaled 2 yards to buy space and time, then found receiver Myles Price for a 6-yard gain and a first down. It was the Red Raiders’ sixth fourth-down conversion on eight attempts that day.
The aggressive strategy paved the way for Tech’s eventual 37-34 overtime win over the favored Longhorns and showcased McGuire, a first-year head coach, among the growing list of adopters of bolder fourth-down decision-making. The Red Raiders lead the country in fourth-down attempts this season with 15.
“Once you get past the 50 and it’s fourth-and-3, it makes a lot of sense when you’re going to go for it,” McGuire said. “So you can definitely call the game that way.”
McGuire fell in love with the philosophy during his time as a Baylor assistant. In 2021, Bears coach Dave Aranda utilized Championship Analytics, Inc., an Atlanta-based company that provides its customized “CAI Game Book” to more than 100 teams across the NFL, FBS and FCS.
The book breaks down optimal decisions for varying fourth-down situations, based on the game’s score, time remaining, whether teams are at home or on the road, favorites or underdogs and more. Each week, the book is updated for a team’s upcoming opponent and also accounts for injuries.
In 2020, his first year as a head coach, Aranda learned “embarrassing lessons” on skewing too far toward punting, like the time he punted on fourth-and-12 from the Texas 30-yard line in a loss to the Longhorns.
“Education on how to manage a game was something that I knew I was deficient in,” Aranda told The Athletic in July. “I would spend time trying to learn, I just didn’t learn fast enough.”
