So, with recent events, I've tried to visualize what realignment-geddon would look like. When it's discussed here, it seems to be a common thought of:
1. Texas and Oklahoma leave
2. ??
3. ??
4. Success
The middle part seems a whole lot more convoluted to me. Let's just make a basic assumption that the networks and Big 12 escalate their issues, everything goes to hell and the below happens in next 2 months:
1. OU, UT, KU, OSU and 1-2 of TCU/TT/WVU land somewhere "good"
2. KSU, ISU, Baylor and 1-2 of TCU/TT/WVU are left out
First of all, the left out crowd is going to get their litigation on. They are going to fight for all network $$s from here until 2024 (could be $100M a year or more). Doesn't matter what current contract says, they are going to assemble whatever version of the dream team is available.
Then, you have Title IX. A super conference is going to need to provide the same level of support nation wide that the old P5 structure had.
Then, you have the politicians. Kansas lawmakers will love a distraction from the mess that the state is in to have congressional hearings, inquiries, etc. that will stonewall the move. Never mind what Iowa and possibly WVU lawmakers will do. Add in the Texas mafia if Baylor and/or TCU and or/TT is left out.
Then, you have what are the networks going to pay. A B1G with some combination of OU, KU and UT is going to pressure the networks to give those schools more money than they have now. They're going to be pressured to give current schools more money than they have now. The networks don't have as much money as they used to.
If the Pac-12 and ACC don't get a bump, they're going to be pissed and demand more $$ from the networks if everything appears to be in a reset mode.
I definitely think current headlines aren't good and point towards almost certain fracture. But I just don't think the networks, the conferences and the government have the capability, focus and time to handle the mass chaos of the Big 12 breaking up. Maybe there are contingency plans in place, but just feels like it's game over for what we've liked and watched the past 5, 10, 20, 30, 40, 70 years of our lives if UT and OU pack up and leave.
1. Texas and Oklahoma leave
2. ??
3. ??
4. Success
The middle part seems a whole lot more convoluted to me. Let's just make a basic assumption that the networks and Big 12 escalate their issues, everything goes to hell and the below happens in next 2 months:
1. OU, UT, KU, OSU and 1-2 of TCU/TT/WVU land somewhere "good"
2. KSU, ISU, Baylor and 1-2 of TCU/TT/WVU are left out
First of all, the left out crowd is going to get their litigation on. They are going to fight for all network $$s from here until 2024 (could be $100M a year or more). Doesn't matter what current contract says, they are going to assemble whatever version of the dream team is available.
Then, you have Title IX. A super conference is going to need to provide the same level of support nation wide that the old P5 structure had.
Then, you have the politicians. Kansas lawmakers will love a distraction from the mess that the state is in to have congressional hearings, inquiries, etc. that will stonewall the move. Never mind what Iowa and possibly WVU lawmakers will do. Add in the Texas mafia if Baylor and/or TCU and or/TT is left out.
Then, you have what are the networks going to pay. A B1G with some combination of OU, KU and UT is going to pressure the networks to give those schools more money than they have now. They're going to be pressured to give current schools more money than they have now. The networks don't have as much money as they used to.
If the Pac-12 and ACC don't get a bump, they're going to be pissed and demand more $$ from the networks if everything appears to be in a reset mode.
I definitely think current headlines aren't good and point towards almost certain fracture. But I just don't think the networks, the conferences and the government have the capability, focus and time to handle the mass chaos of the Big 12 breaking up. Maybe there are contingency plans in place, but just feels like it's game over for what we've liked and watched the past 5, 10, 20, 30, 40, 70 years of our lives if UT and OU pack up and leave.
