Been looking at numerous nonagenda polls over the weekend, including those measuring the expected voter participation from each party’s base, projected margin of error on final numbers in the House and Senate, and a couple of interesting results concerning the impact of the Kavanaugh fight.
If the election were today, based on weekend poll numbers, I’d put the House at 224 D and 211 R. But - the average margin of error is about 30 in either direction. For the Senate, 52 R and 48 D. But - average margin of error is about 6 in either direction. One near certainty is the R gain of a seat in North Dakota. One total tossup in Missouri looks to be decided by a few votes. Arizona, Indiana, and Tennessee are also looking like cliffhangers.
Base enthusiasm among likely R voters is the highest of the year. Propellants are Kavanaugh and to a lesser extent a bump in Trump’s popularity with his base. The D base is still headed for the most participation in an off year by the minority since 2010. Big issues for the D base might be a surprise to some people. Health care is the biggest issue, followed by Trump and Kavanaugh.
The October surprise may the impact of the now 10,000 strong caravan from Central America headed to our Southern border. It can’t make the border until probably January but immigration could eclipse the other issues for both parties. The other yet undefined factor is where Idependent voters go. They are now 25% and still growing proportion of registered voters. More next Tuesday.
If the election were today, based on weekend poll numbers, I’d put the House at 224 D and 211 R. But - the average margin of error is about 30 in either direction. For the Senate, 52 R and 48 D. But - average margin of error is about 6 in either direction. One near certainty is the R gain of a seat in North Dakota. One total tossup in Missouri looks to be decided by a few votes. Arizona, Indiana, and Tennessee are also looking like cliffhangers.
Base enthusiasm among likely R voters is the highest of the year. Propellants are Kavanaugh and to a lesser extent a bump in Trump’s popularity with his base. The D base is still headed for the most participation in an off year by the minority since 2010. Big issues for the D base might be a surprise to some people. Health care is the biggest issue, followed by Trump and Kavanaugh.
The October surprise may the impact of the now 10,000 strong caravan from Central America headed to our Southern border. It can’t make the border until probably January but immigration could eclipse the other issues for both parties. The other yet undefined factor is where Idependent voters go. They are now 25% and still growing proportion of registered voters. More next Tuesday.
