I’m working on finalizing returning production numbers for all of the teams in our conference and non-con opponents. It’s a bit tedious, but it’s coming along. I’ll probably start posting them later this week.
The first 4 schools I did, the data came out with what I would call reasonable, consistent results. There’s some variance, but it’s explainable and didn’t swing the overall offensive or defensive numbers beyond what is reasonable.
And then I started on Colorado.
CU has made me realize that my formula’s are not built to accept the sheer volume of transfers that CU has brought in. The math isn’t broken, but it’s lost all logic. With transfers, you sometimes see something over 100%. It’s normally in situations where that position group returns most of their production and brought in a transfer who had more production than what was lost. In general, this tends to sort itself out in the wash.
The problem that I’m seeing is that virtually every position group and statistical category is over 100% returning. As I’ve dug into it, the only position group that returned just about everything and then added more to it was QB.
Here’s an example of what I’m talking about. CU’s DL is at 128% of total tackles, 163% of TFL’s, 150% of sacks. That COULD be explainable if they returned basically everything and then brought in a couple of highly productive pass rushers. It makes them more effective.
What DID happen is that CU actually only returned 33% of their Tackles, 24% of their TFL’s, and 22% of their Sacks. Everything beyond that was transfers. That would be explainable if it was a couple high performers but it’s not and that’s where the problem is. They brought in 10 DL transfers…and there’s no way that they are going to play more than 5-6 of them. Additionally, for the most part the guys they were bringing in weren’t all conference folks…just dudes getting snaps and performing the way you would expect a dude getting snaps to perform.
It’s like that at every position outside of kicker. Literally every freaking position. Their defensive rating is 1.2658 in a system where anything above 0.630 is positive. Their offensive rating is a .997 where anything above .600 is positive. It’s basically telling me that CU is going to score an extra 5.5 points/game AND shave off 9.15 PPG allowed.
I’m going to run their numbers again tomorrow without transfers and then numbers with a 50% transfer credit to see what that does. I hate doing that but I just can’t see a scenario where has a 2 TD swing in performance when they lost so many guys off of their offense and defense…the learning curve to get that many bodies up to speed is just too damned steep.
The first 4 schools I did, the data came out with what I would call reasonable, consistent results. There’s some variance, but it’s explainable and didn’t swing the overall offensive or defensive numbers beyond what is reasonable.
And then I started on Colorado.
CU has made me realize that my formula’s are not built to accept the sheer volume of transfers that CU has brought in. The math isn’t broken, but it’s lost all logic. With transfers, you sometimes see something over 100%. It’s normally in situations where that position group returns most of their production and brought in a transfer who had more production than what was lost. In general, this tends to sort itself out in the wash.
The problem that I’m seeing is that virtually every position group and statistical category is over 100% returning. As I’ve dug into it, the only position group that returned just about everything and then added more to it was QB.
Here’s an example of what I’m talking about. CU’s DL is at 128% of total tackles, 163% of TFL’s, 150% of sacks. That COULD be explainable if they returned basically everything and then brought in a couple of highly productive pass rushers. It makes them more effective.
What DID happen is that CU actually only returned 33% of their Tackles, 24% of their TFL’s, and 22% of their Sacks. Everything beyond that was transfers. That would be explainable if it was a couple high performers but it’s not and that’s where the problem is. They brought in 10 DL transfers…and there’s no way that they are going to play more than 5-6 of them. Additionally, for the most part the guys they were bringing in weren’t all conference folks…just dudes getting snaps and performing the way you would expect a dude getting snaps to perform.
It’s like that at every position outside of kicker. Literally every freaking position. Their defensive rating is 1.2658 in a system where anything above 0.630 is positive. Their offensive rating is a .997 where anything above .600 is positive. It’s basically telling me that CU is going to score an extra 5.5 points/game AND shave off 9.15 PPG allowed.
I’m going to run their numbers again tomorrow without transfers and then numbers with a 50% transfer credit to see what that does. I hate doing that but I just can’t see a scenario where has a 2 TD swing in performance when they lost so many guys off of their offense and defense…the learning curve to get that many bodies up to speed is just too damned steep.
