It's a little bit crazy how complex of a situation we are looking at. What makes it complex is the moving parts involved moreso than most years. We have some unique variables in play that could change the recruiting strategy in a very short period of time. Because of that, it makes it really hard to breakdown...but I am going to try.
I a curious what others think as well, there are quite a few specific issues here so feel free to just discuss one or bring up something you think might be pretty important over the next couple of years. Before going into some specifics, something that will play a big role in this is what the roster numbers look like as of today:
2015 (current) season: mid-to-upper 60s
2016 season: low 70s
2017 season: mid-to-upper 70s
2018 season: back to normal
This is a rough estimate and there is some variability here. This does not take into consideration roster attrition, which could lower these numbers. This also does not take into consideration blueshirts, which could shift the above numbers some. This also does not take into consideration some walk-ons getting scholarships (legit scholarships that won't be initial counters, not including senior walk ons that commonly get a scholarship their last year), which would add to the numbers. So with that in mind, here is kind of what I think are some things to watch out or consider the next two classes...
2016 Class
How do we finish the class?
JK mentioned in a thread that it is looking like RBs, DL, and CBs will be the focus of the remaining class. That makes sense to me. Keep a spot open for Bledsoe. Take a big RB and an all around RB. I think going after another JUCO DT makes sense because it gives you a solid 5 man rotation next year at DT and because of eligibility wouldn't have to necessarily take a HS DT in this class and be fine the next three years allowing room for some 2017 HS DTs to be groomed for the future. With CB, I would actually look at getting one more safety in this class (would really like to go after DeMarkus Acy) and then focus on HS CBs - I know we have offered Stephan Robinson who is a 4X3 mid-year JUCO and wouldn't complain if we landed him, but am leaning more towards the HS route to finish the class off. Because we are at around 20 scholarship freshman that will graduate after the 2018 season, a 3 year JUCO kid could actually make that number bigger.
Should we target a relatively large number of walk ons hard in this class?
Absolutely yes. Between last year's walk ons (not counting guys who earned scholarships this year) and a potential walk on group this year, I am hoping we can get around 10 legit walk ons combined from the two groups to earn scholarships that won't count as initial counters. I think guys like Hunter Saulsbury, Ryan Schadler, and Mesa Ribordy are examples of this. This current group of walk ons could add to the 2017 roster numbers and the potential group of walk ons could add to the 2018 when we expect to get back to normal. At minimum, this could offset potential roster attrition...so I think it is vital to get another solid large group of walk ons on campus. Specifically, I would target a quality walk on QB, DT, and TE if possible...
Should we target some blueshirts in this class (that would count against the 2017 class)?
I think you only do for three specific types of players in this class.
1.) If there are freshman like Larry Hughes or Kendall Duckworth that are available - if you can add young talent to the team, do it
2.) Impact transfer type that would be at KU 3+ years
3.) Impact JUCO OL - while I like the potential of the OL, will be a growing pains year again with them next year so an impact JUCO OL could help
Possible 4th reason - if you can get a good kicker/punter here (but would prefer to hold off until the 2017 season to do that)
Should we target any grayshirts in this class that wouldn't get here until the 2017 season?
It depends on how talented the person is and if they would grayshirt. I would take another Cam Durley and Shola Ayinde as grayshirts. A guy I would strongly consider offering a grayshirt is Tom Killilea of STA. I would even entertain the idea of asking a couple of our current commits if they would consider grayshirting. But if we do take one, the kid better be a talented guy we feel we couldn't necessarily get in the 2017 class.
2017 Class
Should we start the class fast or slow?
It depends on the level of interest of guys we are after, but I would risk it and go slow which I typically would be against. A reason for this is that I think it will be hard to recruit to an 0 - 12 team...and if we win something like 3 to 4 games next year I think that could provide some momentum late. We could go after some kids committed elsewhere looking around and this staff has already shown they can find guys late in the process. Now if there are a bunch of talented guys that want to commit early to us, then by all means get as many as you can...but I would gamble on us surprising some next year and have quite a few open spots as we near the end of next season.
Do we go after JUCOs in the 2017 class?
If we do, they better be 3 year guys. Maybe a 2 year JUCO guy for an immediate need spot, but right now we have around 20 freshman (redshirt and true) playing this year, so a 2 year JUCO could add to that number. Because of attrition, you really don't want to get more than 22 kids graduating in a class. Now 3+ year JUCO kids would make some sense...but I think next year we need to stay away from 2 year JUCO guys. Going forward after this year, I think 2 - 5 JUCO kids per 25 man class makes sense...but next year is an exception.
Do we go after a large walk on class in 2017?
I would say no, well at least not as large as this past year and what I think could happen this year. Go after some quality walk ons, but I think it will be a much smaller group than the first couple of years since we will be approaching normal scholarship numbers in 2018.
Should we target some blueshirts in the 2017 class?
This is probably the most variable thing I can think of this far in advance. Here I would start considering kickers. Not taking in consider attrition/walk ons/etc we are looking at being in the mid-to-upper 70s for scholarship numbers. You could take around a handful of blueshirts that would count against the 2018 class but be basically near normal roster numbers in this example. Given what Beaty inherited, that's pretty incredible to think he could have the roster back to near normal numbers in Year 3. However, we do have to consider attrition and walk ons here. It breaks down into three scenarios
Scenario 1 - low attrition of underclassmen, low number of walk ons panning out: That is the situation essentially described above, taking blueshirts would make sense
Scenario 2 - low attrition of underclassmen, high number of walk ons panning out: This means we could be at almost normal numbers even without blueshirts, so probably don't take any blueshirts
Scenario 3 - high attrition of underclassmen, low number of walk ons panning out: This would be the worst case scenario here and we would have issues much bigger than worrying about blueshirts...but would make sense to take some
Well that was way longer than I hoped for, but that's the process my mind has been going down the past couple of days thinking over some questions people have had about the current class, blue shirts, and on and on. There really isn't a simple answer right now. One decision will impact another decision down the road. Once we get to the 2018 class, things will be a lot simpler...but until then, this is the world we live in. Not impossible to climb out of this situation, but it does take being pretty smart to handle it the best way
I a curious what others think as well, there are quite a few specific issues here so feel free to just discuss one or bring up something you think might be pretty important over the next couple of years. Before going into some specifics, something that will play a big role in this is what the roster numbers look like as of today:
2015 (current) season: mid-to-upper 60s
2016 season: low 70s
2017 season: mid-to-upper 70s
2018 season: back to normal
This is a rough estimate and there is some variability here. This does not take into consideration roster attrition, which could lower these numbers. This also does not take into consideration blueshirts, which could shift the above numbers some. This also does not take into consideration some walk-ons getting scholarships (legit scholarships that won't be initial counters, not including senior walk ons that commonly get a scholarship their last year), which would add to the numbers. So with that in mind, here is kind of what I think are some things to watch out or consider the next two classes...
2016 Class
How do we finish the class?
JK mentioned in a thread that it is looking like RBs, DL, and CBs will be the focus of the remaining class. That makes sense to me. Keep a spot open for Bledsoe. Take a big RB and an all around RB. I think going after another JUCO DT makes sense because it gives you a solid 5 man rotation next year at DT and because of eligibility wouldn't have to necessarily take a HS DT in this class and be fine the next three years allowing room for some 2017 HS DTs to be groomed for the future. With CB, I would actually look at getting one more safety in this class (would really like to go after DeMarkus Acy) and then focus on HS CBs - I know we have offered Stephan Robinson who is a 4X3 mid-year JUCO and wouldn't complain if we landed him, but am leaning more towards the HS route to finish the class off. Because we are at around 20 scholarship freshman that will graduate after the 2018 season, a 3 year JUCO kid could actually make that number bigger.
Should we target a relatively large number of walk ons hard in this class?
Absolutely yes. Between last year's walk ons (not counting guys who earned scholarships this year) and a potential walk on group this year, I am hoping we can get around 10 legit walk ons combined from the two groups to earn scholarships that won't count as initial counters. I think guys like Hunter Saulsbury, Ryan Schadler, and Mesa Ribordy are examples of this. This current group of walk ons could add to the 2017 roster numbers and the potential group of walk ons could add to the 2018 when we expect to get back to normal. At minimum, this could offset potential roster attrition...so I think it is vital to get another solid large group of walk ons on campus. Specifically, I would target a quality walk on QB, DT, and TE if possible...
Should we target some blueshirts in this class (that would count against the 2017 class)?
I think you only do for three specific types of players in this class.
1.) If there are freshman like Larry Hughes or Kendall Duckworth that are available - if you can add young talent to the team, do it
2.) Impact transfer type that would be at KU 3+ years
3.) Impact JUCO OL - while I like the potential of the OL, will be a growing pains year again with them next year so an impact JUCO OL could help
Possible 4th reason - if you can get a good kicker/punter here (but would prefer to hold off until the 2017 season to do that)
Should we target any grayshirts in this class that wouldn't get here until the 2017 season?
It depends on how talented the person is and if they would grayshirt. I would take another Cam Durley and Shola Ayinde as grayshirts. A guy I would strongly consider offering a grayshirt is Tom Killilea of STA. I would even entertain the idea of asking a couple of our current commits if they would consider grayshirting. But if we do take one, the kid better be a talented guy we feel we couldn't necessarily get in the 2017 class.
2017 Class
Should we start the class fast or slow?
It depends on the level of interest of guys we are after, but I would risk it and go slow which I typically would be against. A reason for this is that I think it will be hard to recruit to an 0 - 12 team...and if we win something like 3 to 4 games next year I think that could provide some momentum late. We could go after some kids committed elsewhere looking around and this staff has already shown they can find guys late in the process. Now if there are a bunch of talented guys that want to commit early to us, then by all means get as many as you can...but I would gamble on us surprising some next year and have quite a few open spots as we near the end of next season.
Do we go after JUCOs in the 2017 class?
If we do, they better be 3 year guys. Maybe a 2 year JUCO guy for an immediate need spot, but right now we have around 20 freshman (redshirt and true) playing this year, so a 2 year JUCO could add to that number. Because of attrition, you really don't want to get more than 22 kids graduating in a class. Now 3+ year JUCO kids would make some sense...but I think next year we need to stay away from 2 year JUCO guys. Going forward after this year, I think 2 - 5 JUCO kids per 25 man class makes sense...but next year is an exception.
Do we go after a large walk on class in 2017?
I would say no, well at least not as large as this past year and what I think could happen this year. Go after some quality walk ons, but I think it will be a much smaller group than the first couple of years since we will be approaching normal scholarship numbers in 2018.
Should we target some blueshirts in the 2017 class?
This is probably the most variable thing I can think of this far in advance. Here I would start considering kickers. Not taking in consider attrition/walk ons/etc we are looking at being in the mid-to-upper 70s for scholarship numbers. You could take around a handful of blueshirts that would count against the 2018 class but be basically near normal roster numbers in this example. Given what Beaty inherited, that's pretty incredible to think he could have the roster back to near normal numbers in Year 3. However, we do have to consider attrition and walk ons here. It breaks down into three scenarios
Scenario 1 - low attrition of underclassmen, low number of walk ons panning out: That is the situation essentially described above, taking blueshirts would make sense
Scenario 2 - low attrition of underclassmen, high number of walk ons panning out: This means we could be at almost normal numbers even without blueshirts, so probably don't take any blueshirts
Scenario 3 - high attrition of underclassmen, low number of walk ons panning out: This would be the worst case scenario here and we would have issues much bigger than worrying about blueshirts...but would make sense to take some
Well that was way longer than I hoped for, but that's the process my mind has been going down the past couple of days thinking over some questions people have had about the current class, blue shirts, and on and on. There really isn't a simple answer right now. One decision will impact another decision down the road. Once we get to the 2018 class, things will be a lot simpler...but until then, this is the world we live in. Not impossible to climb out of this situation, but it does take being pretty smart to handle it the best way
