Well camp has officially started, which means good news for you guys in that I will chill out some with the offseason being over and not posting random daily threads. Thank you guys again for putting up with me through this offseason as I tried to make it through another one!
One thing that has been really interesting to me is the back and forth about this upcoming season. There are some things that just cannot be argued against. It simply just cannot be argued against that the roster is in bad shape right now. It cannot be argued against that lack of returning experience. It cannot be argued that historically coaches at KU have struggled their first year compared to the leaving coaches last year. These are all facts, so diminishing any of these as not that big of a deal is just blind optimism based on hope.
That doesn't mean that there are not signs out there that indicate this team could possibly out perform expectations.
Now the argument for out performing these expectations usually center around Beaty not being Weis and players doing better under him than the past couple of staffs. If the team were to beat expectations, I think we would look back and say things like Beaty did a better job developing this kids, Beaty/Likens/Bowen had better game plans, etc. This would all be true. But I don't see them as true indicators in the preseason that we could exceed expectations. Again, looking back on the season these things would definitely be true...however there are two main indicators I see that leads me to believing this staff can exceed expectations. One is directly tied to Beaty and one is more of a general observation. First, the general observation...
Reason #1 - Momentum of Change
This has been discussed on here some, but really hasn't been fully examined. There has been an interesting phenomenon at KU the past couple of coaching changes that I think we could see this upcoming season that would help the team.
Before diving into that, when I think about the last handful of years, my favorite season sitting in the stands was actually the team's worst record with it being Weis's first year and winning only one game. It is pretty crazy if you think back to the 2012 season, we were 1 - 6 in games decided by two scores or less. That takes some pretty bad luck to have a losing record like that in those games. Think back to KSU's 2011 season when they were 8 - 1 in games decided by 1 score or less and you can make a case that luck favors the prepared mind of course. But the big difference between that year and the end of Gill's regime was consistent effort. Now think about that. Weis was known as a guy that players didn't respect and the roster situation wasn't that much greater than it is today (not counting guys sitting out, they were near 70 scholarship guys). A little more experienced, but also low on numbers. The change from Gill's philosophy to Weis's is the reason that the team played hard, game in and game out.
It shows that change can have a huge impact on a season in terms of being competitive. Now it doesn't just stop there though. Even going from Mangino to Gill we saw some spurts of this. In Mangino's last year, it was obvious the team quit on him in the end. With Gill's first year, there was some just awful losses, but there still managed to be a couple of games where you saw effort that we didn't see at the end of the season under Mangino (note not the entire career, just the last part of the 2009 season) with the fight to beat Georgia Tech and the biggest 4th quarter comeback in school history to beat Colorado. You also have this past year with the change from Weis to Bowen. Starting with the Oklahoma State game, there is an interesting 5 game stretch where KU got one win and three other losses within two scores. There was a noticeable change in attitude and effort when this change was made. That change in effort is why they were close in games...
So applying this for Beaty, something we heard a lot through the Big 12 conference media days was how guys wanted to run through a wall for Beaty. To put in another example, consider James Franklin's first year at Vanderbilt. Vandy was coming off of back-to-back 2 win seasons in the tough SEC. He wasn't a great offensive coordinator (very good recruiter though). If you followed that team during the offseason, they were doing things like water balloon fights and whatnot, changing the culture there one day at a time. It paid off and you saw Vandy shock people by making a bowl game in his first year. You know players are going to be the same way under Beaty. He is a genuine guy and the players will truly love playing under him. Because of that, I think you see effort under Beaty, of which the past shows that KU will be competitive in some games they are not expected to be. This means KU has a chance for some surprise wins, which when you are only expected to win a game, this can easily help someone exceed expectations
Reason #2 - Beaty Has Experience (And Is Good) With Quick Turnarounds
Something I have found interesting about the argument for and against Beaty when he was hired was that in general those initially against the hire cited a lack of experience being a concern and those for him cited he was a great fit. Why I say that is interesting is that I thought Beaty's experience is what helped make him a good fit...
True, he has never been a HC at a Division 1 school before. He also has only been a play caller for one year. But as I mentioned over and over again, there is a fun stat with his one year of experience being the main play caller. David Beaty was the OC at Rice in 2010. That year, Rice's offense ranked 52nd in the nation in terms of scoring per game. That doesn't seem impressive, but compared to their 109th ranking the previous year it is very impressive. In fact, this is one of the top 6% scoring ranking change differential since 2008 for D1 football. Also throw in that when Beaty left Rice in 2011, the offense ranked 85th in the nation in scoring, it is a sign to me that Beaty was able to handle a really quick turnaround in his one year as the main play calling OC.
But it doesn't stop there. Beaty's first ever HC position was in the Texas HS ranks at North Dallas in 2001. I haven't been able to find any official timing with this, but some of the remarks I have read said that Beaty took North Dallas to the playoffs for the first time in over 20 years for that HS...at his very first HC spot with no previous experience. I am not sure they have been back since he left. Also note his first year at Texas A&M. In the past 60 years, the biggest win improvement they have experienced as a program is 4 more wins, which has happened in 1985, 2006, and 2012 - Beaty's first year there. It was also tied for the most wins the school had had in a single season since 1992. Now things like the HC/OC and Johnny Football had a bigger impact that Beaty just being on the staff, but I did find it interesting that when Kingsbury left to take the Tech job, Beaty was the only one left on staff that had any play calling experience, but instead of making him the play caller Sumlin moved him to be the recruiting coordinator...and never moved him from that spot. Since that move, A&M experienced the highest recruiting rankings they have ever experienced in the Rivals era.
This is a tangible skill that should not go unnoticed. Being able to turn things around requires several things on the coaching front, but it also requires creativity. Beaty is a master when it comes to this. Again, there are several underlying reasons why a turnaround happens like player improvement/game plan/etc, but there is a more general theme responsible for things like this. Beaty has shown he has that ability
Now in the end, this may not be something we notice until next year because of some of the factors initially said that we simply can not avoid looking at. There will also be a third factor that isn't really an indicator that will play a huge role in luck - a quick example being I think some teams implode in the Big 12 this year and that helps us. But these two things will matter. These two things will give us a shot to exceed expectations. Just think about that for a minute - 2 wins exceeds expectations this year according to Vegas. 3 wins would really do that. Think what 3 wins would actually mean - it means we matched last year without the talent of that year. It would be a huge sign of things to expect under Coach Beaty...it's going to be a fun season, so enjoy it for what it is!
One thing that has been really interesting to me is the back and forth about this upcoming season. There are some things that just cannot be argued against. It simply just cannot be argued against that the roster is in bad shape right now. It cannot be argued against that lack of returning experience. It cannot be argued that historically coaches at KU have struggled their first year compared to the leaving coaches last year. These are all facts, so diminishing any of these as not that big of a deal is just blind optimism based on hope.
That doesn't mean that there are not signs out there that indicate this team could possibly out perform expectations.
Now the argument for out performing these expectations usually center around Beaty not being Weis and players doing better under him than the past couple of staffs. If the team were to beat expectations, I think we would look back and say things like Beaty did a better job developing this kids, Beaty/Likens/Bowen had better game plans, etc. This would all be true. But I don't see them as true indicators in the preseason that we could exceed expectations. Again, looking back on the season these things would definitely be true...however there are two main indicators I see that leads me to believing this staff can exceed expectations. One is directly tied to Beaty and one is more of a general observation. First, the general observation...
Reason #1 - Momentum of Change
This has been discussed on here some, but really hasn't been fully examined. There has been an interesting phenomenon at KU the past couple of coaching changes that I think we could see this upcoming season that would help the team.
Before diving into that, when I think about the last handful of years, my favorite season sitting in the stands was actually the team's worst record with it being Weis's first year and winning only one game. It is pretty crazy if you think back to the 2012 season, we were 1 - 6 in games decided by two scores or less. That takes some pretty bad luck to have a losing record like that in those games. Think back to KSU's 2011 season when they were 8 - 1 in games decided by 1 score or less and you can make a case that luck favors the prepared mind of course. But the big difference between that year and the end of Gill's regime was consistent effort. Now think about that. Weis was known as a guy that players didn't respect and the roster situation wasn't that much greater than it is today (not counting guys sitting out, they were near 70 scholarship guys). A little more experienced, but also low on numbers. The change from Gill's philosophy to Weis's is the reason that the team played hard, game in and game out.
It shows that change can have a huge impact on a season in terms of being competitive. Now it doesn't just stop there though. Even going from Mangino to Gill we saw some spurts of this. In Mangino's last year, it was obvious the team quit on him in the end. With Gill's first year, there was some just awful losses, but there still managed to be a couple of games where you saw effort that we didn't see at the end of the season under Mangino (note not the entire career, just the last part of the 2009 season) with the fight to beat Georgia Tech and the biggest 4th quarter comeback in school history to beat Colorado. You also have this past year with the change from Weis to Bowen. Starting with the Oklahoma State game, there is an interesting 5 game stretch where KU got one win and three other losses within two scores. There was a noticeable change in attitude and effort when this change was made. That change in effort is why they were close in games...
So applying this for Beaty, something we heard a lot through the Big 12 conference media days was how guys wanted to run through a wall for Beaty. To put in another example, consider James Franklin's first year at Vanderbilt. Vandy was coming off of back-to-back 2 win seasons in the tough SEC. He wasn't a great offensive coordinator (very good recruiter though). If you followed that team during the offseason, they were doing things like water balloon fights and whatnot, changing the culture there one day at a time. It paid off and you saw Vandy shock people by making a bowl game in his first year. You know players are going to be the same way under Beaty. He is a genuine guy and the players will truly love playing under him. Because of that, I think you see effort under Beaty, of which the past shows that KU will be competitive in some games they are not expected to be. This means KU has a chance for some surprise wins, which when you are only expected to win a game, this can easily help someone exceed expectations
Reason #2 - Beaty Has Experience (And Is Good) With Quick Turnarounds
Something I have found interesting about the argument for and against Beaty when he was hired was that in general those initially against the hire cited a lack of experience being a concern and those for him cited he was a great fit. Why I say that is interesting is that I thought Beaty's experience is what helped make him a good fit...
True, he has never been a HC at a Division 1 school before. He also has only been a play caller for one year. But as I mentioned over and over again, there is a fun stat with his one year of experience being the main play caller. David Beaty was the OC at Rice in 2010. That year, Rice's offense ranked 52nd in the nation in terms of scoring per game. That doesn't seem impressive, but compared to their 109th ranking the previous year it is very impressive. In fact, this is one of the top 6% scoring ranking change differential since 2008 for D1 football. Also throw in that when Beaty left Rice in 2011, the offense ranked 85th in the nation in scoring, it is a sign to me that Beaty was able to handle a really quick turnaround in his one year as the main play calling OC.
But it doesn't stop there. Beaty's first ever HC position was in the Texas HS ranks at North Dallas in 2001. I haven't been able to find any official timing with this, but some of the remarks I have read said that Beaty took North Dallas to the playoffs for the first time in over 20 years for that HS...at his very first HC spot with no previous experience. I am not sure they have been back since he left. Also note his first year at Texas A&M. In the past 60 years, the biggest win improvement they have experienced as a program is 4 more wins, which has happened in 1985, 2006, and 2012 - Beaty's first year there. It was also tied for the most wins the school had had in a single season since 1992. Now things like the HC/OC and Johnny Football had a bigger impact that Beaty just being on the staff, but I did find it interesting that when Kingsbury left to take the Tech job, Beaty was the only one left on staff that had any play calling experience, but instead of making him the play caller Sumlin moved him to be the recruiting coordinator...and never moved him from that spot. Since that move, A&M experienced the highest recruiting rankings they have ever experienced in the Rivals era.
This is a tangible skill that should not go unnoticed. Being able to turn things around requires several things on the coaching front, but it also requires creativity. Beaty is a master when it comes to this. Again, there are several underlying reasons why a turnaround happens like player improvement/game plan/etc, but there is a more general theme responsible for things like this. Beaty has shown he has that ability
Now in the end, this may not be something we notice until next year because of some of the factors initially said that we simply can not avoid looking at. There will also be a third factor that isn't really an indicator that will play a huge role in luck - a quick example being I think some teams implode in the Big 12 this year and that helps us. But these two things will matter. These two things will give us a shot to exceed expectations. Just think about that for a minute - 2 wins exceeds expectations this year according to Vegas. 3 wins would really do that. Think what 3 wins would actually mean - it means we matched last year without the talent of that year. It would be a huge sign of things to expect under Coach Beaty...it's going to be a fun season, so enjoy it for what it is!
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