Was going back through what the roster numbers will be with all of the recent things that have happened (like redshirts being burned, injuries, guys that haven't played yet and thus likely redshirting), and the immediate future still looks the same (with a possible exception here) but beyond that it looks a little bit interesting now.
A lot for the immediate future still holds true. For the 2016 season, we are still looking at some pretty low numbers (around mid to low 70s). For the 2017 season, we are looking a little bit better (upper 70s, possible exception here will talk about in a bit). Then by 2018 we are still looking like we will be back to normal for roster numbers.
2017
Now before talking about 2018 a little bit more and now what is looking interesting in 2019, there is a big possible exception for 2017. I think guys like Larry Hughes and Kendall Duckworth will be scholarship guys sooner than later since they have already played, so am counting them as initial scholarships. But we have also heard good things about Hunter Saulsbury and Mesa Ribordy (among other freshman walk ons) and I think in due time (as in after they have been on campus past two years so they won't be initial counters) they will be scholarship guys. If around a handful of walk ons that will be here past two years earn scholarships in 2017 and are legit Big 12 guys, we are looking at having in the near mid 80 range of legit scholarship guys in 2017. The walk on program is the big game changer here for roster numbers...
2018
While that would be nice, I think it is most likely we are still looking at the 2018 season before being back to near normal with respect to scholarships. We have some wiggle room here as well to account for the possibility of people leaving before their eligibility is up. But something interesting we see with guys who's eligibility ends in 2018 (as in guys that are currently true or redshirt sophomores) is there is only around 13 guys in this group. So because of the wiggle room, playing around with the numbers some, we could take up to 6 two-year eligible JUCO guys in our current recruiting class and still be back to around normal. If the walk on assumption above holds true, we could take around 11. Now I am not saying we should do that (especially due to normal attrition rates), just showing some of the flexibility we have and that it may actually be a good thing to take around a handful of JUCO guys in our current class.
2019
So far, we have burned 11 redshirts this current season. That doesn't bother me that much because I think we are going to build those guys up over the rest of the season to be a core for us going forward. But it does change the dynamics of what we can do in next year's recruiting class. Before the season started, I thought it would be smart to take around a handful of JUCO guys in next year's class because it would help out numbers. With the number of burned redshirts, that change now. I still think a few blue shirts could be given out that would go towards the 2017 class, but it is critical that the majority of them be for guys that will be here 3 years or longer if they go down that path.
Long story short version
Outside shot of back to normality numbers wise in 2017, but still looking like 2018 before we get to that level. In 2019, before the number of burned redshirts, taking a handful of JUCO guys in the 2017 class would have been the smart move, but now that is not likely the case. The two biggest variability drivers here are the walk on program and guys leaving the program early. The walk on program has a chance to get us back to normal numbers pretty early, possibly even for the 2017 season, but it is still very crucial to keep guys from leaving, and even more specifically it is crucial to keep guys that are either sophomores or freshman - even if we lost some juniors for one reason or another, the 2016 and 2017 numbers would be impacted, but not the 2018 numbers when we would likely be back to normal (they would only be impacted by sophomores or freshman leaving early)...
A lot for the immediate future still holds true. For the 2016 season, we are still looking at some pretty low numbers (around mid to low 70s). For the 2017 season, we are looking a little bit better (upper 70s, possible exception here will talk about in a bit). Then by 2018 we are still looking like we will be back to normal for roster numbers.
2017
Now before talking about 2018 a little bit more and now what is looking interesting in 2019, there is a big possible exception for 2017. I think guys like Larry Hughes and Kendall Duckworth will be scholarship guys sooner than later since they have already played, so am counting them as initial scholarships. But we have also heard good things about Hunter Saulsbury and Mesa Ribordy (among other freshman walk ons) and I think in due time (as in after they have been on campus past two years so they won't be initial counters) they will be scholarship guys. If around a handful of walk ons that will be here past two years earn scholarships in 2017 and are legit Big 12 guys, we are looking at having in the near mid 80 range of legit scholarship guys in 2017. The walk on program is the big game changer here for roster numbers...
2018
While that would be nice, I think it is most likely we are still looking at the 2018 season before being back to near normal with respect to scholarships. We have some wiggle room here as well to account for the possibility of people leaving before their eligibility is up. But something interesting we see with guys who's eligibility ends in 2018 (as in guys that are currently true or redshirt sophomores) is there is only around 13 guys in this group. So because of the wiggle room, playing around with the numbers some, we could take up to 6 two-year eligible JUCO guys in our current recruiting class and still be back to around normal. If the walk on assumption above holds true, we could take around 11. Now I am not saying we should do that (especially due to normal attrition rates), just showing some of the flexibility we have and that it may actually be a good thing to take around a handful of JUCO guys in our current class.
2019
So far, we have burned 11 redshirts this current season. That doesn't bother me that much because I think we are going to build those guys up over the rest of the season to be a core for us going forward. But it does change the dynamics of what we can do in next year's recruiting class. Before the season started, I thought it would be smart to take around a handful of JUCO guys in next year's class because it would help out numbers. With the number of burned redshirts, that change now. I still think a few blue shirts could be given out that would go towards the 2017 class, but it is critical that the majority of them be for guys that will be here 3 years or longer if they go down that path.
Long story short version
Outside shot of back to normality numbers wise in 2017, but still looking like 2018 before we get to that level. In 2019, before the number of burned redshirts, taking a handful of JUCO guys in the 2017 class would have been the smart move, but now that is not likely the case. The two biggest variability drivers here are the walk on program and guys leaving the program early. The walk on program has a chance to get us back to normal numbers pretty early, possibly even for the 2017 season, but it is still very crucial to keep guys from leaving, and even more specifically it is crucial to keep guys that are either sophomores or freshman - even if we lost some juniors for one reason or another, the 2016 and 2017 numbers would be impacted, but not the 2018 numbers when we would likely be back to normal (they would only be impacted by sophomores or freshman leaving early)...
