So I'm a big fan of the work over at FootballStudyHall.com. One of their better tools is the Advanced Stats Profiles for each team. Here is Kansas. I mentioned this in my post earlier this week, and I think it deserves a special section on why this occurs. But the gist is this... the actual score of our games is generally way worse than what the expected scoring margin should be based upon other advanced metrics (mostly yards per game, turnovers, etc). WHY?
To save those who do not want to click on the link... we have only exceeded the expected score in 3 games in Beaty's tenure against FBS foes (all last year) Rutgers, Iowa State, West Virgnia. So against real live FBS competition, the actual score has been worse in 14 of 17 games than what the advanced stats would have suggested.
I've listened and read quite a bit about these stats and it generally comes down to this: good coaches exceed expectations and bad coaches don't. For example, Bill Snyder generally wins ~1.6 games/year over his career more than what the expected stats would suggest. The stats basically confirm what we all see--he's a great coach.
Maybe this will turn around, but the expectation for me over these next 4 games is that the score is kept closer than what maybe the box score would suggest. So far, we should have won 2.67 games under Beaty (we've won 1) according to the stats. That is about -0.8 wins less than expected per year.
I'll part with one ray of sunshine... we are #114 in S&P+ right now, up 13 spots from last year's unfathomable #127 ranking.
To save those who do not want to click on the link... we have only exceeded the expected score in 3 games in Beaty's tenure against FBS foes (all last year) Rutgers, Iowa State, West Virgnia. So against real live FBS competition, the actual score has been worse in 14 of 17 games than what the advanced stats would have suggested.
I've listened and read quite a bit about these stats and it generally comes down to this: good coaches exceed expectations and bad coaches don't. For example, Bill Snyder generally wins ~1.6 games/year over his career more than what the expected stats would suggest. The stats basically confirm what we all see--he's a great coach.
Maybe this will turn around, but the expectation for me over these next 4 games is that the score is kept closer than what maybe the box score would suggest. So far, we should have won 2.67 games under Beaty (we've won 1) according to the stats. That is about -0.8 wins less than expected per year.
I'll part with one ray of sunshine... we are #114 in S&P+ right now, up 13 spots from last year's unfathomable #127 ranking.
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