Looking over everything, the one thing I keep getting sucked back into is how important QB is to this upcoming offense. If we are to succeed under Beaty, it is very important we get solid QB play. I honestly think that if we are to surprise this upcoming season, QB play will be the biggest reason why.
But QB is such a premium position of importance in football that it isn't just as easy saying this is who you want to run your offense because QB is such a hotly recruited position. What intrigues me about this potential offense is that I don't think we need a super-stud to run it - I think if this offense is taught efficiently, then we can find recruits that we can routinely get to run this offense. At least that is what my thinking is, so I wanted to quantify this some...
I ended up looking at QBs that have been drafted since 2009 - I chose 2009 because that is about as far back as I can go to get data easily (from the 2008 season and on) as well as most of these guys should be in the Rivals database. I chose QBs that were drafted because I think that could be a quick and dirty definition of what a super-stud QB is (while knowing there are exceptions). So I broke it down into three parts - was the QB drafted from a BCS school, what were the star rankings out of HS, and how did his college team do passing wise his last year in college...
QB Drafted from BCS school or not
Assuming that Notre Dame is a BCS school and those currently in BCS schools count as BCS schools all the way back to 2009 (debatable, but I just went with it), I found that 70% of the QBs drafted came from a BCS school.
I looked at this because I wanted to see how many QBs weren't BCS guys thinking that KU could land them if they wanted to. Now some of the non-BCS guys were transfers, most weren't drafted high, and there is always more to the story, but seeing that gave me an indication KU can find a super-stud QB that's under the radar - they are out there, just have to find them...
Star Rankings of Drafted Guys
BCS versus non-BCS is one way to look at this, but so is star rankings. While the rankings aren't perfect and counter-examples galore, they are a measure of whether a guy is highly recruited or recruited by big time schools and those ranked higher tend to be recruited more (again rightfully or wrongfully). So with that in mind, of the 80 QBs drafted since 2009, they break down like this:
5 star - 12
4 star - 22
3 star - 29
2 star - 11
unranked - 6
So the majority of the guys drafted are 4 stars or 3 stars and the average star ranking of drafted guys during this time period is 3.2. I would say that we really don't compete much for the 4 star QBs and a lot of the 3 star guys we are probably struggling on some as well, although most of KU's QB commits have been 3 star or higher.
Passing yards ranking last year of college
After looking at both of those, I wondered if that really matters in this offense. Sure, guys like RG3 and Geno Smith have been drafted playing in offenses like this, but a ton of guys hadn't. Being that these offenses tend to put up a ton of yards in the air, it made me wonder if there was a direct link to a guy passing for a ton of yards and if he gets drafted. So I looked at the ranking of the passing yards per game for each guy drafted and how it ranked (thus some guys that aren't D1 that got drafted don't count here). By year, the average ranking of passing yards per game for QBs drafted was:
2009: 36th
2010: 32nd
2011: 46th
2012: 28th
2013: 29th
2014: 24th
2015: 27th
So you could maybe argue that in more recent years this appears to have been more important, but in general a guy being drafted doesn't mean he relatively passed for a ton of yards. In only one year was a QB drafted who threw for the most yards per game in that given year. Applying the converse here, that means you don't need an NFL QB to pass for a ton of yards in these type of offenses.
I guess what I wanted to find out was how likely is it that KU can get a QB in here that can be successful in these type of offenses. This shows me that I think it is definitely possible, but moreso because I think the offense makes the QB rather than the QB makes the offense (while recognizing you still need a competent guy to run the offense)
But QB is such a premium position of importance in football that it isn't just as easy saying this is who you want to run your offense because QB is such a hotly recruited position. What intrigues me about this potential offense is that I don't think we need a super-stud to run it - I think if this offense is taught efficiently, then we can find recruits that we can routinely get to run this offense. At least that is what my thinking is, so I wanted to quantify this some...
I ended up looking at QBs that have been drafted since 2009 - I chose 2009 because that is about as far back as I can go to get data easily (from the 2008 season and on) as well as most of these guys should be in the Rivals database. I chose QBs that were drafted because I think that could be a quick and dirty definition of what a super-stud QB is (while knowing there are exceptions). So I broke it down into three parts - was the QB drafted from a BCS school, what were the star rankings out of HS, and how did his college team do passing wise his last year in college...
QB Drafted from BCS school or not
Assuming that Notre Dame is a BCS school and those currently in BCS schools count as BCS schools all the way back to 2009 (debatable, but I just went with it), I found that 70% of the QBs drafted came from a BCS school.
I looked at this because I wanted to see how many QBs weren't BCS guys thinking that KU could land them if they wanted to. Now some of the non-BCS guys were transfers, most weren't drafted high, and there is always more to the story, but seeing that gave me an indication KU can find a super-stud QB that's under the radar - they are out there, just have to find them...
Star Rankings of Drafted Guys
BCS versus non-BCS is one way to look at this, but so is star rankings. While the rankings aren't perfect and counter-examples galore, they are a measure of whether a guy is highly recruited or recruited by big time schools and those ranked higher tend to be recruited more (again rightfully or wrongfully). So with that in mind, of the 80 QBs drafted since 2009, they break down like this:
5 star - 12
4 star - 22
3 star - 29
2 star - 11
unranked - 6
So the majority of the guys drafted are 4 stars or 3 stars and the average star ranking of drafted guys during this time period is 3.2. I would say that we really don't compete much for the 4 star QBs and a lot of the 3 star guys we are probably struggling on some as well, although most of KU's QB commits have been 3 star or higher.
Passing yards ranking last year of college
After looking at both of those, I wondered if that really matters in this offense. Sure, guys like RG3 and Geno Smith have been drafted playing in offenses like this, but a ton of guys hadn't. Being that these offenses tend to put up a ton of yards in the air, it made me wonder if there was a direct link to a guy passing for a ton of yards and if he gets drafted. So I looked at the ranking of the passing yards per game for each guy drafted and how it ranked (thus some guys that aren't D1 that got drafted don't count here). By year, the average ranking of passing yards per game for QBs drafted was:
2009: 36th
2010: 32nd
2011: 46th
2012: 28th
2013: 29th
2014: 24th
2015: 27th
So you could maybe argue that in more recent years this appears to have been more important, but in general a guy being drafted doesn't mean he relatively passed for a ton of yards. In only one year was a QB drafted who threw for the most yards per game in that given year. Applying the converse here, that means you don't need an NFL QB to pass for a ton of yards in these type of offenses.
I guess what I wanted to find out was how likely is it that KU can get a QB in here that can be successful in these type of offenses. This shows me that I think it is definitely possible, but moreso because I think the offense makes the QB rather than the QB makes the offense (while recognizing you still need a competent guy to run the offense)
