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KU in March when having 5+ conference losses

JVDBeak'em

All-American
Gold Member
Oct 2, 2007
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We're currently 8-5 in conference, so best case scenario is 13-5.

Self has never had a season worse than 12-6, which he's done twice.
2019, 4 seed, lost in second round to Auburn by 14.
2021, 3 seed, lost in second round to USC by 34.

He's had 3 seasons where he's gone 13-5.
2015, 2 seed, lost in second round to Wichita State by 13.
2018, 1 seed, lost in final four to Villanova by 16.
2023, 1 seed, lost in second round to Arkansas by 1.

Winning percentage-wise, 13-5 would be equivalent to going 12-4 in the old Big 12. He's done that twice.
2004, 4 seed, lost in elite eight to Georgia Tech by 8.
2005, 3 seed, lost in first round to Bucknell by 1.

Average Seed: 2.6
Combined tournament record: 11-7, average wins 1.6, average loss 12.4 pts.
Only made the second weekend 2 of 7 times (28.5%)

Compare that to going 15-3 & 14-4, or 13-3 in the old Big 12.
2006, 4 seed, lost in first round to Bradley by 4 (ended the season 15-1, including avenging our only loss in the B12 title game, should not have been a 4 seed)
2008, 1 seed, won the national championship by 7.
2013, 1 seed, lost in sweet sixteen to Michigan by 2.
2014, 2 seed, lost in second round to Stanford by 3.
2016, 1 seed, lost in elite eight to Villanova by 5.
2022, 1 seed, won the national championship by 3.

Average Seed: 1.7
Combined record: 18-4, average wins 3.0, average spread 0.7 pts.
Made the second weekend 4 of 6 times (66.7%)


We got a similar total wins when going 16-2, or 14-2 /15-1 in the old Big 12.
2007, 1 seed, lost in elite eight to UCLA
2009, 3 seed, lost in sweet sixteen to Michigan State
2010, 1 seed, lost in second round to Northern Iowa
2011, 1 seed, lost in elite eight to VCU
2012, 2 seed, lost in national championship game to Kentucky
2017, 1 seed, lost in elite eight to Oregon

Average Seed: 1.5
Combined record: 17-6, average wins 2.8
Made the second weekend 5 of 6 times (83.3%)
Ironically, and sadly, our best conference record with Self (15-1) we lost in the second round.

Average conference record by March Exit
First Round: 25-7 (78.125%) = 14.1-3.9
Second Round: 79-27 (74.5%) = 13.4-4.6
Sweet Sixteen: 28-6 (82.35%) = 14.8-3.2
Elite Eight: 71-13 (84.5%) = 15.2-2.8
Final Four: 13-5 (72.2%) = 13.0-5.0
Championship Game: 16-2 (88.9%) = 16.0-2.0
National Champions: 27-7 (79.4%) = 14.3-3.7

First Weekend: 104-34 (75.4%) = 13.5-4.5
Second Weekend: 99-19 (83.9%) = 15.1-2.9
Final Four: 56-14 (80.0%) = 14.4-3.6

13-5 would be 72% for you mathletes out there.
 
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