https://www.espn.com/college-footba...io-state-kansas-expect-every-first-year-coach
Kansas (Les Miles)
2018 record: 3-9
Projected 2019 wins: 2.7 (FPI) to 2.8 (S&P+)
Odds of bowl eligibility: 2%
A coach no one seemed to want took a job no one wanted to take. That could be the first line from what ends up being an incredible redemption tale. It could also provide confirmation as to why both parties were seemingly unwanted.
Miles last coached in 2016. He should be able to upgrade the infrastructure in Lawrence over the next few years, and he might be able to recruit to a more physical identity. But in the short term, he inherits a roster that has basically one player sure to have made his two-deep at LSU: running back Pooka Williams. There's size on the offensive line and experience in the secondary, but in a Big 12 with an enormous middle class, the Jayhawks have so much ground to make up to hope for much more than a couple of cupcake wins and a conference upset in 2019.
has KU in the year 0 category
a few others of note, these all appear under make a run at 6-6:
Texas Tech (Matt Wells)
2018 record: 5-7
Projected 2019 wins: 6.4 (S&P+) to 6.7 (FPI)
Odds of bowl eligibility: 73%
Kliff Kingsbury really was close to making things work in Lubbock. Granted, things worked out pretty well for him -- he somehow managed to jump from fired college head coach to newly hired NFL head coach this past winter -- but he had finally managed to oversee some defensive improvement last fall (to 81st in defensive S&P+), and Tech was averaging 45.9 points per game with freshman Alan Bowman at quarterback. But Bowman got hurt, Tech averaged 20.3 points without him, and the Red Raiders went from 5-2 to 5-7.
Wells therefore inherits maybe the most friendly situation of any new coach: Tech has finished with a winning record only once in the past five seasons but almost certainly would have last year if not for Bowman's injury. So if Wells can simply fulfill last season's promise with Bowman and a lineup loaded with upperclassmen, then he's a Year 1 success.
West Virginia (Neal Brown)
2018 record: 8-4
Projected 2019 wins: 4.6 (FPI) to 6.0 (S&P+)
Odds of bowl eligibility: 60%
West Virginia is one of 2019's biggest mysteries, as evidenced by the distance between FPI's and S&P+'s respective projections. The Mountaineers have to replace starting quarterback Will Grier, four of last year's top five receivers, three of last year's top four defensive linemen, and half the two-deep in the secondary. That, combined with a potential culture change, could result in at least a temporary setback in Morgantown.
There's a pretty clear path to something decent, though. Brown was phenomenal at Troy -- after a first-year reset, granted -- and inherits just enough that he'll have a chance at first-year success. WVU boasts quite a few intriguing QB and WR candidates, the run game could be dynamite and, well, the Mountaineers' defensive front was already pretty bad last year. It's not likely to get all that much worse. And while the schedule is tricky, it could allow for a fast start.
Kansas State (Chris Klieman)
2018 record: 5-7
Projected 2019 wins: 4.9 (S&P+) to 5.3 (FPI)
Odds of bowl eligibility: 33%
Bill Snyder did his successor a favor by trailing off at the end. He averaged only seven wins per year over his final four seasons, and last fall he failed to make a bowl for the first time in nine years. Klieman, the immensely successful former North Dakota State head coach, knows what it takes to succeed a legend, but the bar isn't as high in Manhattan as it was in Fargo.
Still, the KSU football program has been a plane only Snyder could fly, and it would help to assuage concerns if Klieman won a few of the many projected close games on the schedule and at least matched last year's win total. There's a slight chance of a "no one can win with Snyder's recruits but him" situation, and a resulting Year Zero, but with quarterback Skylar Thompson and a veteran-heavy two-deep, Klieman's got some tools in the tool box.
Coastal Carolina (Jamey Chadwell)
2018 record: 5-7
Projected 2019 wins: 4.2 (S&P+) to 5.0 (FPI)
Odds of bowl eligibility: 17%
Chadwell only sort of qualifies as a first-year coach. He led the Chanticleers as an interim in 2017, when head coach Joe Moglia stepped away to deal with health issues. Moglia returned for 2018, then retired for good. Chadwell was the obvious successor.
Despite a dreadful defense, Coastal came within a 31-28 loss to South Alabama of reaching bowl eligibility last season. An exciting offense now has to replace quarterback Kilton Anderson, but two freshmen saw quite a bit of playing time, and with running back CJ Marable and an experienced offensive line, the Chants' run-heavy attack should remain dangerous. But without massive defensive improvement, another run at six wins could be difficult. Coastal is a projected favorite in only three to four games and will be a constant underdog over the back half of the schedule. Win early, get to 4-8 or 5-7, and start building long-term.
Kansas (Les Miles)
2018 record: 3-9
Projected 2019 wins: 2.7 (FPI) to 2.8 (S&P+)
Odds of bowl eligibility: 2%
A coach no one seemed to want took a job no one wanted to take. That could be the first line from what ends up being an incredible redemption tale. It could also provide confirmation as to why both parties were seemingly unwanted.
Miles last coached in 2016. He should be able to upgrade the infrastructure in Lawrence over the next few years, and he might be able to recruit to a more physical identity. But in the short term, he inherits a roster that has basically one player sure to have made his two-deep at LSU: running back Pooka Williams. There's size on the offensive line and experience in the secondary, but in a Big 12 with an enormous middle class, the Jayhawks have so much ground to make up to hope for much more than a couple of cupcake wins and a conference upset in 2019.
has KU in the year 0 category
a few others of note, these all appear under make a run at 6-6:
Texas Tech (Matt Wells)
2018 record: 5-7
Projected 2019 wins: 6.4 (S&P+) to 6.7 (FPI)
Odds of bowl eligibility: 73%
Kliff Kingsbury really was close to making things work in Lubbock. Granted, things worked out pretty well for him -- he somehow managed to jump from fired college head coach to newly hired NFL head coach this past winter -- but he had finally managed to oversee some defensive improvement last fall (to 81st in defensive S&P+), and Tech was averaging 45.9 points per game with freshman Alan Bowman at quarterback. But Bowman got hurt, Tech averaged 20.3 points without him, and the Red Raiders went from 5-2 to 5-7.
Wells therefore inherits maybe the most friendly situation of any new coach: Tech has finished with a winning record only once in the past five seasons but almost certainly would have last year if not for Bowman's injury. So if Wells can simply fulfill last season's promise with Bowman and a lineup loaded with upperclassmen, then he's a Year 1 success.
West Virginia (Neal Brown)
2018 record: 8-4
Projected 2019 wins: 4.6 (FPI) to 6.0 (S&P+)
Odds of bowl eligibility: 60%
West Virginia is one of 2019's biggest mysteries, as evidenced by the distance between FPI's and S&P+'s respective projections. The Mountaineers have to replace starting quarterback Will Grier, four of last year's top five receivers, three of last year's top four defensive linemen, and half the two-deep in the secondary. That, combined with a potential culture change, could result in at least a temporary setback in Morgantown.
There's a pretty clear path to something decent, though. Brown was phenomenal at Troy -- after a first-year reset, granted -- and inherits just enough that he'll have a chance at first-year success. WVU boasts quite a few intriguing QB and WR candidates, the run game could be dynamite and, well, the Mountaineers' defensive front was already pretty bad last year. It's not likely to get all that much worse. And while the schedule is tricky, it could allow for a fast start.
Kansas State (Chris Klieman)
2018 record: 5-7
Projected 2019 wins: 4.9 (S&P+) to 5.3 (FPI)
Odds of bowl eligibility: 33%
Bill Snyder did his successor a favor by trailing off at the end. He averaged only seven wins per year over his final four seasons, and last fall he failed to make a bowl for the first time in nine years. Klieman, the immensely successful former North Dakota State head coach, knows what it takes to succeed a legend, but the bar isn't as high in Manhattan as it was in Fargo.
Still, the KSU football program has been a plane only Snyder could fly, and it would help to assuage concerns if Klieman won a few of the many projected close games on the schedule and at least matched last year's win total. There's a slight chance of a "no one can win with Snyder's recruits but him" situation, and a resulting Year Zero, but with quarterback Skylar Thompson and a veteran-heavy two-deep, Klieman's got some tools in the tool box.
Coastal Carolina (Jamey Chadwell)
2018 record: 5-7
Projected 2019 wins: 4.2 (S&P+) to 5.0 (FPI)
Odds of bowl eligibility: 17%
Chadwell only sort of qualifies as a first-year coach. He led the Chanticleers as an interim in 2017, when head coach Joe Moglia stepped away to deal with health issues. Moglia returned for 2018, then retired for good. Chadwell was the obvious successor.
Despite a dreadful defense, Coastal came within a 31-28 loss to South Alabama of reaching bowl eligibility last season. An exciting offense now has to replace quarterback Kilton Anderson, but two freshmen saw quite a bit of playing time, and with running back CJ Marable and an experienced offensive line, the Chants' run-heavy attack should remain dangerous. But without massive defensive improvement, another run at six wins could be difficult. Coastal is a projected favorite in only three to four games and will be a constant underdog over the back half of the schedule. Win early, get to 4-8 or 5-7, and start building long-term.
