Based off the most recent roster, went through and did a quick projection of roster totals the next few years. Some quick hitters before that:
Bad News - looking at being in the upper 60s again this upcoming season
Good News - we are still on progress to be back to normal for the 2018 season (possibly for the 2017 season...)
If we assume nobody leaves and they take 25 guys in each class, here is a rough estimate for scholarship roster numbers on the team the next 3 seasons (give or take a scholarship or two)
2016: 68
2017: 74
2018: 85 (with one additional spot to spare)
Things that could change these numbers
1.) If guys like Cozart, Ford, and maybe Will Smith get an extra year due to injuries, disregarding thoughts on if they should or not, that would actually put the 2017 number at 77
2.) Attrition - it doesn't matter what school you are at you are going to lose players each year, so if you lost 5 players next year and the year after worst case scenario is after this the 2017 number becomes 69 and the 2018 number would be 75 (depends on which guys leave and how many years they have left)
3.) Some guys could earn scholarships - I think guys like Mesa Ribordy, Ryan Schadler, and a few others could earn scholarships after this season and they wouldn't be initial counters. Could see guys like Brewer, Haehn , Conaway and some more doing that in a few years as well. I think that could offset potential attrition loses
4.) Blueshirts - Blueshirts could essentially shift the numbers...let's say they we take two blueshirts this upcoming season, the numbers would then look like 2016: 70, 2017: 74, 2018: 85
5.) 2 year JUCOs in the 2017 class - there is one spot to play with here, so considering that let's say they took 3 two year JUCO guys in this upcoming class, that means if you don't consider any of the above, the max scholarship guys you could have for 2018 is 83 (85 max + 1 spare spot - 3 more graduating in 2018 = 83). That doesn't worry me as much as I think guys like Ribordy will get a scholarship...but it does mean not to go too crazy on two year JUCOs this class...just a few
How 2017 could be "near normal"
Depends on the creativity of the staff here. First attrition will have to be minimized, for simplicity's sake will assume nobody leaves even though that is reaching. Then let's say Cozart and Ford gets an extra year - up to 76 guys. Let's say 5 guys like Ribordy, Schadler, and Saulsbury (and two others) get scholarships - that would put us up to 81 guys. If you took two blue shirts that would count towards the 2018 class...the 2017 number would be 83. Attrition makes that unlikely, but I think we can expect to be in the upper 70's next year and back to normal in 2018.
Quick Summary
We aren't quite there, but we are getting close. Low numbers again next year, but by the 2018 season we should be back to normal numbers. If the staff gets creative, could be near normal in 2017...which is pretty crazy when you consider the situation the staff was in...
Bad News - looking at being in the upper 60s again this upcoming season
Good News - we are still on progress to be back to normal for the 2018 season (possibly for the 2017 season...)
If we assume nobody leaves and they take 25 guys in each class, here is a rough estimate for scholarship roster numbers on the team the next 3 seasons (give or take a scholarship or two)
2016: 68
2017: 74
2018: 85 (with one additional spot to spare)
Things that could change these numbers
1.) If guys like Cozart, Ford, and maybe Will Smith get an extra year due to injuries, disregarding thoughts on if they should or not, that would actually put the 2017 number at 77
2.) Attrition - it doesn't matter what school you are at you are going to lose players each year, so if you lost 5 players next year and the year after worst case scenario is after this the 2017 number becomes 69 and the 2018 number would be 75 (depends on which guys leave and how many years they have left)
3.) Some guys could earn scholarships - I think guys like Mesa Ribordy, Ryan Schadler, and a few others could earn scholarships after this season and they wouldn't be initial counters. Could see guys like Brewer, Haehn , Conaway and some more doing that in a few years as well. I think that could offset potential attrition loses
4.) Blueshirts - Blueshirts could essentially shift the numbers...let's say they we take two blueshirts this upcoming season, the numbers would then look like 2016: 70, 2017: 74, 2018: 85
5.) 2 year JUCOs in the 2017 class - there is one spot to play with here, so considering that let's say they took 3 two year JUCO guys in this upcoming class, that means if you don't consider any of the above, the max scholarship guys you could have for 2018 is 83 (85 max + 1 spare spot - 3 more graduating in 2018 = 83). That doesn't worry me as much as I think guys like Ribordy will get a scholarship...but it does mean not to go too crazy on two year JUCOs this class...just a few
How 2017 could be "near normal"
Depends on the creativity of the staff here. First attrition will have to be minimized, for simplicity's sake will assume nobody leaves even though that is reaching. Then let's say Cozart and Ford gets an extra year - up to 76 guys. Let's say 5 guys like Ribordy, Schadler, and Saulsbury (and two others) get scholarships - that would put us up to 81 guys. If you took two blue shirts that would count towards the 2018 class...the 2017 number would be 83. Attrition makes that unlikely, but I think we can expect to be in the upper 70's next year and back to normal in 2018.
Quick Summary
We aren't quite there, but we are getting close. Low numbers again next year, but by the 2018 season we should be back to normal numbers. If the staff gets creative, could be near normal in 2017...which is pretty crazy when you consider the situation the staff was in...
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